Last weekend's results likely knocked a lot of people out of their Last Man.
Premier League giants Liverpool and Chelsea were held at home by Fulham and Hull respectively and the same happened to League One leaders Sheffield Wednesday against bottom club Wigan.
There were odds-on home wins for promotion favourites West Ham, Southampton (both Championship), Plymouth (League One), Barnet and York (both League Two) though, so hopefully you ignored me and didn't "hold on to them" for future weeks as suggested...
That section of the column has been tweaked this week in an effort to break things up a little more. Whether you're starting a new game, buying back in or are (congratulations) heading into weekend number six, let's run through what's a tricky looking schedule.
Who should I pick in Last Man Standing this week?
Coupon busters
- Bournemouth vs LIVERPOOL 21/20
- NEWCASTLE 3/5 vs Hull
- QPR 4/6 vs Preston
- SALFORD 8/15 vs Swindon
- BARNET 7/10 vs Fleetwood
LIVERPOOL continue to look deeply untrustworthy, so far failing to deliver a convincing performance under Andoni Iraola. He returns to former club Bournemouth, who may have drawn three and lost one but have led in all four. Had each finished in the 83rd minute they'd be unbeaten with a W3 D1 record.
After being fortunate to collect five points from their first three games NEWCASTLE were ruthlessly exposed by Leeds on Monday. Unbeaten Hull will look to bully them in the same way and having been impressed in a 2-2 draw at Chelsea last weekend who'd bet against them now?
QPR (fifth) have started well while Preston are 23rd in the Championship. They sacked Paul Heckingbottom after losing for a sixth time in their opening seven games, but their performances have warranted much more than just three points. All the hallmarks of a coupon buster.
At such a short price I fear many people will blindly back SALFORD this weekend. They may have taken seven points from their last three games but their performances do not warrant such favouritism. Swindon's terrible away form means they may win, but it is not a good bet.
Another in League Two not worth the risk are leaders BARNET. They ended a run of three draws by narrowly beating struggling Accrington and now face also unbeaten Fleetwood, who sit just two points adrift despite a very tough fixture list - especially away from home.
Acca swerves
Does this even need flagging? Inconceivably for the second successive week SPURS are odds-on at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. A goalless draw with Everton means it's now five wins from 36 home league games. Rebuilding Aston Villa are struggling, but come on.
Millwall against WEST HAM is not a nice rivalry. They meet at Saturday lunchtime for the first time in 14 and a half years, the longest gap in the fixture since 1978. Back in 2012 Hammers captain Kevin Nolan was sent off after nine minutes. You get the picture.
Dodgy picks
NOTTINGHAM FOREST were finally rewarded for a low key but encouraging start under Oliver Glasner with a late win at Villa. Coventry have been better than results suggest but there is no hiding from four defeats, no goals scored, 10 conceded. It doesn't scream home win to me though. Both sides may be suited to playing away and Forest are yet to score at the City Ground in three outings. There are better options.
MANCHESTER UNITED are W4 D4 L2 away since Michael Carrick arrived in January, far too inconsistent to be backed at a Fulham team whose first point of the season at Liverpool was reward for some hitherto unrewarded strong performances.
Best Premier League picks
- MAN CITY 2/7 vs Sunderland
- EVERTON 7/10 vs Ipswich
- LEEDS 5/6 vs Crystal Palace
- Brighton vs ARSENAL 7/10
We are very short of "bankers" this weekend, and you'd have every right to feel a little uncomfortable with this one given how close Sunderland pushed Arsenal last weekend. There is no explanation needed for why MANCHESTER CITY should win. Worthy of mention is the additional factor of Sunderland playing their first European fixture in more than 50 years on Wednesday, which makes this quite the exhausting week for the Black Cats.
EVERTON have been impressive so far, and not just because they are W3 D3 in all competitions. That unbeaten record requires context as they twice needed stoppage-time equalisers, but anyone who has watched their last two games against Tottenham and Manchester United will have seen David Moyes is building a very effective team. Ipswich will be delighted to have six points but are wide open, conceding 13 goals in their last four fixtures.
LEEDS have now lost just once in 13 league games (W6 D7) and showed their credentials by thrashing Newcastle on Monday. Crystal Palace have conceded the most goals in the division (11) and are breaking records for the number of touches they are allowing opposition to have in their own box. With the added impact of starting their Europa League campaign on Thursday this is a terrible match-up for the visitors.
ARSENAL head to a Brighton team who have made a good start, especially going forward. But only four Premier League clubs have allowed more than their 1.75 expected goals against (xGA) per game, something the Gunners will take full advantage of. It feels risky to back against such a good side but Albion's attacking nature means the match-up really suits Arsenal, who are W5 D2 across the last seven meetings.
Best EFL picks
- GRIMSBY 1/2 vs Crawley
- READING 5/6 vs Notts County
- OXFORD 23/20 vs Cambridge
- Bromley vs HUDDERSFIELD 4/7
GRIMSBY are the standout EFL pick. They emphatically broke a run of four straight draws by beating promotion rival Bristol Rovers 2-0 last weekend and now host relegation candidates Crawley, who have lost four of their opening six and conceded six goals in their last two games.
Notts County lost to Bradford last weekend, their first defeat since being promoted from League Two. Their early success has relied on a resolute defence that will now face its biggest test yet. READING have made an excellent start performance-wise, sitting joint-top of League One's xG table despite playing a game fewer. Now the results are starting to come too, winning two of three and scoring 10 goals.
OXFORD also fall into the under the radar category because of having a game in hand. Three wins from four, including thumping victories over Leicester and Burton, has seen them climb to fifth, a place behind newly-promoted Cambridge. No team is overperforming their underlying data more than the visitors, with them 21st on expected points, which usually means their performances are unsustainable.
Bromley arrested their run of 7-2, 5-0 and 2-0 defeats by battling to a 2-2 draw at Blackpool. HUDDERSFIELD haven't conceded more than one goal yet this season and sit second in League One. It's hard to see past an away win but I'll be honest it's not one of my favourites.
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (16/9/26)
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