After a 7/1 acca winner two weeks ago and being one goal from a 9/1 winner last weekend, Jake Osgathorpe is a man in form, and he again uses the Infogol expected goals (xG) model for the best value accumulator this Sunday.
Atalanta v Bologna (19:45 BST): Over 2.5 Goals
Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid: Under 2.5 Goals
Braga v Sporting Lisbon: Under 2.5 Goals
Lyon v Lille: Under 2.5 Goals
Games kick off 20:00 BST on Sunday, unless otherwise stated
ATALANTA have been a great team to follow for goals, and this season has been no different. La Dea head into this clash in the top four of Serie A, continuing to perform like one of the best teams in the league on underlying metrics.
Their xG process at home is incredible (2.09 xGF, 1.11 xGA per game), and their matches at the Gewiss Stadium are averaging 4 goals per game, with 75% seeing OVER 2.5 GOALS.
BOLOGNA are their opponents on Sunday, and they are a decent mid-table team in Italy, but do concede a lot of chances on the road (1.56 xGA per game).
ATHLETIC BILBAO’s season has petered out. They were playing some good football in the immediate aftermath of Marcelino’s appointment, but have lost two Copa del Rey finals in their last five matches.
In La Liga, they have won one of nine, with seven of those games going UNDER 2.5 GOALS. In fact, in matches at San Mames this season, only 33% have seen three or more goals.
Diego Simeone’s ATLETICO MADRID are in town, still chasing the La Liga title. While they won 5-0 last weekend, that was a very rare high-scoring game for them, being only the second time in their last 10 league games that three or more had been scored. On the road, Atleti’s matches have seen Under 2.5 land in 67% of matches. This could be a drab affair.
There is a big game on Sunday in Portugal, where the two of the top four go head-to-head. BRAGA, led by former Sheffield Wednesday boss Carlos Carvahal, have struggled for consistency of late, but their games continue to see few goals – especially at home.
They allow an average of just 0.80 xGA per game at Estadio Municipal de Braga, so keep things tight at the back, and they face league leaders SPORTING LISBON here who boast an outrageously low defensive figure when travelling (0.67 xGA per game).
Rúben Amorim’s side have stuttered of late, drawing three of their last four to open the door for Porto to catch up, but their stout defence has led to a lot of low-scoring games. 61% of their matches in the Primeira Liga have cone UNDER 2.5 GOALS this term, and this one could follow suit.
Ligue 1’s title race is set up superbly, with four teams separated by just three points with five games remaining. Two of those meet late on Sunday in what is a massive clash.
LYON head into the game in fourth, and know a defeat spells the end of their title hopes, but they have won their last two, and do boast a stellar xG process at the Groupama Stadium, especially defensively (1.03 xGA per game).
League leaders LILLE are in town, and this game represents their toughest remaining game, as they bid to win a first title since 2011, when a young Eden Hazard played for Les Dogues. Their defence has been the focal point of this title challenge, with their xGA per game of 0.72 a lot better than next best Monaco (0.92).
In meetings between the runaway four in France, 60% have seen UNDER 2.5 GOALS, while 64% of all Lille matches this season have gone under. This could be a tight and cagey game.
Odds correct at 14:30 BST (22/04/21)
In line with Sky Bet's rules on Help & Support on any Enhanced Accumulators, if a match is postponed or abandoned the Sporting Life Accumulator will be settled on the results of the remaining games, as a win reduction if all remaining legs win or a loser if the selection is let down by any legs.
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