The Ashes: Free betting preview and tips for England v Australia at Headingley

Recommended bets

2pts Travis Head top Australian first innings batsman at 11/2

1.5pts Joe Denly top England first innings batsman at 13/2

1.5pts Joe Denly to make a first innings half-century at 2/1

Following a commanding victory for Australia in the opening Ashes Test in Birmingham, England roared back into the series with a fine display at Lord's, their day-five victory push just denied after day one and a significant amount of day three was washed out.

Prior to Lord's, it was England who had the major injury concerns, James Anderson's calf injury ending his Test match in Birmingham after only four overs and ruling him out of Lord's and Headingley to go alongside injuries to fellow fast bowlers Mark Wood and Olly Stone.

Nevertheless, Stuart Broad has been right back to his best this summer, leading the attack in Anderson's absence superbly well, and with Jofra Archer making such a huge impact on debut at Lord's, England will feel they have the momentum and a bowling attack capable of winning in Leeds.

Australia, on the other hand, were clearly rattled by Archer's pace and hostility at Lord's and the heavy blow Steve Smith took to his neck on the fourth day has ruled him out of the Leeds Test match.

Furthermore, Australia have a few big decisions to make in regards to the make-up of their bowling attack.

Coach Justin Langer and Tim Paine began the series with an army of world-class fast bowlers at their disposal and the promise of a 'rotation policy' that would ensure that their pacemen were '100 per cent cherry ripe' every time they took to the field.

It was Peter Siddle and James Pattinson who got the nod for the series opener at Edgbaston and when the latter was 'sore' ahead of the second Test, Australia were able to bring a fresh Josh Hazlewood from the sidelines to have a big impact in the first innings in London.

Pattinson is vying for recall in Leeds, as is Mitchell Starc following the wonderful World Cup he enjoyed earlier in the summer, but Hazlewood will feel he did enough at Lord's to keep his place while Siddle has bowled far better on this tour than the numbers would suggest and his unwavering accuracy and experience of English conditions make him a valuable asset in these conditions.

With Pat Cummins having racked up 82.3 overs in the series already and having a history of back problems, Australia won't be relishing the prospect of the number one ranked bowler in the world playing back-to-back Test matches.

With a battery of pace bowlers sat on the sidelines for Australia, England will certainly be hopeful that Cummins is given a breather in Leeds but with 13 wickets at an average of 16.30 in the series so far, Paine will be loathe to take the field without his premier strike bowler.

That would mean a return for Starc is less likely, especially in a four-man attack that can ill-afford his expensive economy rates, but given he is just about the quickest bowler in Australia's squad, and with Archer now giving England the edge in the intimidation stakes, now might be the time to meet fire with fire.

The uncertainty around Australia's starting XI has seen them drift to as big as 9/4 with England's improved showing in London earning them quotes as short at 4/9.

As ever, the toss will be crucial and with a good week of weather forecast in Yorkshire, batting first and getting ahead of the game is the only viable option for either captain.

Having been brave and batted first in Birmingham, Paine's decision to bowl first at Lord's was a poor one and put his side under unnecessary pressure on final day. He ought not to make the same mistake again if calling correctly on Thursday morning.

With Smith now confirmed to be missing the Headingley Test, the top Australian first innings batsman market suddenly makes for interesting reading with David Warner heading the betting at 7/2.

As such, I'm keen to strike a bet, especially with Warner clearly struggling for his best form and Usman Khawaja seemingly unable to convert a number of promising starts as England target his frailties outside off stump.

Australia will now be able to make room for Marnus Labuschagne following his impressive second-innings 59 when drafted in to replace Smith as Test cricket's first concussion substitute on Sunday and he looks a cricketer of some potential.

That said, I am struggling to see why he is a shorter price than Travis Head, a more experienced performer and one who boasts a far superior First-class and Test record.

Head currently averages 49.87 in 10 Test appearances to date and he has started this current series well, making 135 runs at 45.00.

Head's unbeaten 42 in the second innings guided Australia to safety at Lord's and having struck an assured 51 in first Test, I've seen enough to suggest he is worth chancing at 11/2 with Smith not lining up.

A century for Matthew Wade in Birmingham brings him into the mix, especially given the wonderful run of form he has enjoyed domestically over the last couple of years, but I thought England bowled really well to him in London, frustrating him by limiting his scoring opportunities, and expect more of the same again.

For England, all eyes will be on Joe Root as he returns to his his home ground for what might prove to be one of the most significant Test matches of his career.

Following a first-inning half-century in Birmingham, Root has been short of runs in the series so far and having been pinned lbw in the first innings at Lord's, it was slightly concerning to see him take a guard much closer to leg stump second time around, resulting in the England captain pushing away from his body and edging Pat Cummins behind for a golden duck.

I will be interested to see how Root approaches his batting in Leeds but he remains the linchpin of England's batting line-up, closely followed by Lord's centurion Ben Stokes.

Australia will be desperate to claim their wickets early in Leeds but they won't be underestimating Joe Denly at number four, the Kent man impressing with scores of 30 and 26 in the second Test without going on to post that big score he needs to nail down his place in the side.

Denly has really impressed me so far this summer, a tight technique and an ability to pounce on the bad ball suggesting he has the game to succeed at this level if getting up and running.

A couple of huge hundreds for Kent this summer indicate that he can certainly go big once getting set and as a big fan of the 33-year-old, I'm keen to put my money where my mouth is.

Denly is 13/2 to be England's top first-innings batsman in Leeds while he can be backed at 2/1 to post a first-innings fifty. Split stakes on both might just be the way go.

Posted at 1430 BST on 20/08/19

Related links

• Richard Mann's latest Ashes diary
• Ashes: Test dates, venues & results