T20 Cricket World Cup analysis and predictions as England captain Eoin Morgan feels the heat

What will captain Morgan do with Morgan?

Eoin Morgan’s form is sure to take up plenty more column inches in the coming days, possibly even weeks, and with good reason after a horror run that has seen England's captain average only 11.71 in 10 T20Is in 2021.

With the bat, Morgan was a passenger for Kolkata Knight Riders at the recent IPL, though his leadership and captaincy remained outstanding throughout as he oversaw a remarkable turnaround from his side who eventually reached the final. More concerning for England fans, however, is that Morgan’s strike-rate throughout the competition was way down at 95.68.

It’s not purely about numbers, either. Watch Morgan bat and it's clear to see a man who is a shadow of his destructive former self, and while form comes and goes, this looks worryingly different. He’s always been vulnerable to the type of quick bouncer Pat Cummins rattled his helmet with a few years back, but even Sri Lanka looked to get at Morgan with such tactics last summer. The short ball hasn’t been much of a physical threat on the sluggish UAE pitches in the last few weeks, but Morgan’s timing has been woefully off and his body language does not paint a picture of confidence. Anything but, in fact.

So high is the regard in which Morgan is held in the England dressing room, one suspects the players will want him to lead them out against the West Indies on Saturday, but where that leaves the likes of Moeen Ali, Dawid Malan and Sam Billings is tricky.

Moeen comes into this tournament on the back of a strong, title-winning IPL campaign where he blasted an unbeaten 43 from only 20 balls in the final. As things stand, he might find himself at six or even seven in England’s batting order, whereas he batted at number three and four for Chennai Super Kings. Morgan should at least slip down to allow Moeen to bat ahead him.

But it doesn’t stop there. With Liam Livingstone now pencilled in for a middle-order spot, could even the aforementioned Malan find himself under pressure despite his exceptional T20 CV. Malan struggled to accelerate his scoring in India earlier in the year, but would rightly feel hard done by if losing his spot while Morgan stays in the team.

And then there is Billings, a terrific player of spin who fields really well. Before too long, Morgan might struggle to justify his own selection to a group of players who have followed him through thick and thin over the last few years, believing every word he says and buying into his philosophy.

Morgan could soon have a very big call to make and don’t be surprised if this decorated international career ends in a whimper, or even with him stepping aside to make way for someone else he deems better-equipped to carry out the job. The candle only ever burns for so long – even for a player as good as this one.

Will Australia wake up and select their wild card?

Regular readers of these pages will know by now that Australia aren’t high on my shortlist for T20 World Cup. In general, I think Australian cricket is in decline, and the T20 team – Glenn Maxwell apart – is stuck in the past.

In confirming that David Warner will continue to open the batting, despite his struggles at the IPL and two more failures in the warm-up matches, Australia have immediately handicapped themselves at this World Cup.

I won’t labour the same points I have made many times recently about Warner, but with captain Aaron Finch certain to renew their opening partnership, and Steve Smith also inked in for a top-four position, Australia could continue to struggle to make fast starts.

Smith looks a gear too slow for T20 cricket nowadays, and what Australia desperately need is a dynamic top-order batsman who scores all around the wicket against pace and spin. In Josh Inglis, they have just that man, but appear desperate to avoid a tricky conversation with Warner or Smith. Instead, they are set to continue taking the soft option by keeping Inglis on the sidelines.

In fairness to coach Justin Langer, he won’t want to rock the boat with an Ashes series looming and his top-order options in the longest form of the game hardly inspiring. Warner didn’t take his recent axing from the Sunrisers Hyderabad starting XI well and is a confirmed sensitive character. Smith could well be Test captain again after the Ashes and Langer, already under pressure for losing the support of some of his senior players, will want to keep him on side.

But where does that leave Inglis? This is a young man who struck 413 runs at strike-rate of 140.00 in last season’s Big Bash, while in this summer’s Vitality Blast in England he finished as the tournament's leading runscorer with 513 runs and a staggering strike-rate of 175.82. Warner and Smith were hovering just above 100 in terms of strike-rate in the recent IPL and while there is a clear gulf in class between competitions, the difference is numbers is stark.

Australia simply have to make room for Inglis and while axing Matthew Wade and bringing the former in at number seven with the gloves would be a start, it won’t be enough. If Australia are serious about winning the World Cup, Finch and Langer need to be bold and brave, just like the young man in question: a fearless, rich talent whose batting might just be the spark Australia needs.

Will punters be left to rue the dew?

Among all the excitement for the T20 World Cup, there is a big elephant in the room that threatens to undermine grand plans and lead to frustration for players, fans and punters alike.

The toss bias in T20 cricket has been prevalent for some time now, but the early part of the Dubai leg of IPL 2021 made for a nice change as chasing or defending appeared to be of little advantage. It was a level playing field and the best side invariably won.

However, as the tournament progressed, things reverted very much to type with a big bias towards the chaser. In part, that is because the modern-day player is rarely intimidated by scoreboard pressure in this format, but dew also played a huge part. After a scorching summer, the weather in the UAE is getting cooler and dew is becoming more of a factor at night.

Not only does it make the ball wet, hard to grip and thus and handicap bowlers, particularly the spinners, it appeared to improve pitches that often started by playing two-paced and slow, but quickened up once the dew set in.

Defending middling scores therefore became very hard to achieve and by the end of the IPL season, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah were all showing a bias towards the chaser of well over 60 per cent. I suspect the matches starting at 1100 UK time will be less affected by this in the World Cup, but that number could rise even higher under lights as dew becomes even more of an issue later in the evenings.

In truth, it makes a mockery of the cricket and betting on the outright market in individual matches is something I’ll look to avoid initially. Instead, I’d rather judge match-by-match, probably in-play, and hope that things level themselves out in the group stages and that all teams enjoy a similar level of fortune at the toss.

When it comes to semi-finals and finals, I do think scoreboard pressure becomes more significant as chasing in knockout matches or with a trophy on the line brings different types of considerations. By way of example, the most recent Big Bash was won by the team batting first, while Kent defended successfully in a day-night final of the Vitality Blast in September. The recent IPL final was also won by the team batting first.

While there is highly likely to be an advantage in winning the toss and batting second in the next few weeks, it is my hope that the toss doesn’t too strongly shape the outcome of groups one and two, and that by the time we reach the knockout stages, the pressure of chasing in must-win matches levels up the playing field enough to ensure the best team comes out on top.

Until then, I’d advise playing the sub-markets opposed to outright match markets that could be hostage to so much fortune at the toss.

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