South Africa v England ODI series betting preview and cricket tips
England and South Africa renew hostilities in Cape Town on Sunday as they begin a three-match ODI series - Richard Mann previews the action.
South Africa v England ODI series recommended bets
2pts Anrich Nortje top South Africa series bowler at 11/4
As Dawid Malan's batting so emphatically proved in the recent T20I series, it can often pay to keep things simple.
That mantra can certainly ring true with betting as well and much of the evidence points to another England clean sweep in the three-match ODI series against South Africa which now begins on Sunday following the Covid-19 scare which saw the postponement of Friday's scheduled opener.
While South Africa had their moments in three thoroughly entertaining T20I offerings, England's deep and muscular batting line-up just had too many guns for a home attack that will be shorn of strike bowler Kasigo Rabada for the ODI leg of England's tour.
England, too, will juggle their pack in the next few days with rested trio Ben Stokes, Jofra Archer and Sam Curran heading home while Malan can't even make the cut for the ODI squad as the likes of Joe Root and Chris Woakes return to the fold.
The absence of Archer, in particular, will leave England with a hole to fill, but while they have the likes of Woakes, Mark Wood and Olly Stone to enter the mix, South Africa's cupboard looks a little bare.
The hosts will still pose a threat with the ball, namely through paceman Anrich Nortje who continues to impress with his heavy length and ability to consistently hit 90mph. Nortje's exploits at the recent IPL confirmed he is no red-ball specialist and with Lungi Ngidi failing to shine in the T20I series, and the South Africa spinners looking more workmanlike than wizardry, I'm keen to have the big Warriors fast bowler on side.
Key to Nortje's chance of enjoying a fruitful series is that Rabada's absence will mean he and Ngidi will be relied upon to deliver the majority of overs bowled at the death and while that won't do his economy rate much good, it is sure to see him create plenty of wicket-taking opportunities.
Despite his horror show in his sole game in the T20I series, left-armer Beuran Hendricks could get another chance here and become a threat to Nortje, given he has plenty of variations for the slog overs, but he's a long way from winning me over.
Nortje has already picked up 14 wickets in his seven ODI's to date - by way of comparison, Hendricks has five wickets from the same number of games while someone like the aforementioned Curran has played five ODI games and only taken five wickets.
Much like the absent Rabada, Nortje's impressive strike rate makes him such a valuable asset for home captain Quinton de Kock and at 11/4 for top South Africa series bowler, he has to be a bet.
Sticking with the Proteas, Faf du Plessis once again gets the vote and I'll be taking the 7/2 about him finishing the series as top South Africa batsman.
Since relinquishing the captaincy, du Plessis has looked a player reborn - free from the burdens of leading the national side in a country where politics has always infringed on the cricket field - and his form at the recent IPL was a clear indication that he was right back to his best.
Du Plessis carried that forward when making a pair of half-centuries in the preceding T20I series and as I've argued on a number of occasions already, taking on de Kock in these markets at short prices - the new captain is currently 7/4 for top South Africa series batsman honours - might be the way to go now he has the burden of captaincy, and keeping, on his shoulders.
Even were you to reject that argument, it is impossible to ignore the fact that de Plessis is and has been a brilliant ODI batsman whose career average of 47.47 puts him right up there with the very best modern-day performers.
Add to calculations that du Plessis' last three ODI innings - at the 50-over World Cup - saw him make scores of 63, 96* and 100, and there is every reason to keep the veteran on side, particularly as he is pencilled in to bat at number three in this series.
Aside from de Kock, another potential fly in the ointment is Rassie van der Dussen who blasted an unbeaten 74 in the last T20I, but I'm not still not sure he rotates the strike well enough in the middle overs and he is expected to bat below du Plessis in the order anyway.
There is certainly a robust case to be made for du Plessis - I hope I've managed to articulate that above - and 7/2 rates a strong play in my book.
While du Plessis and Nortje will be carrying my money over the next week, I do suspect they will struggle to get enough support to put it up to the tourists, though it is worth remembering that Ireland took a game off a weakened England side in this form of the game last summer before Australia beat Eoin Morgan's outfit 2-1 soon after.
South Africa don't pose anything like Australia's depth of quality, though, and I can't see anything other than a comfortable England series win here with 5/2 for another 3-0 series whitewash looking perfectly fair enough.
It doesn't get much more simple than that.
Posted at 1100 BST on 03/12/20
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