Recommended Bets: Royal London One-Day Cup final
3pts win Surrey at 99/100 - injuries to key Notts bowlers tip a pick ‘em Surrey’s way
1pt Samit Patel Man of the Match at 12/1 - outrageous recent form in four-day and one-day cricket
It’s fair to say both Royal London One-Day Cup finalists caught the eye in the knockout rounds a fortnight ago.
With Nottinghamshire and Surrey finishing third in their first-round group, both were left needing to win back-to-back away games against quality opposition to reach the final. The task has been achieved in some style.
Ludicrously, Notts scored over 800 runs across the quarter-final at Somerset and semi-final at Essex. More ludicrous still, that huge run haul secured them victories by only 24 runs and then five wickets.
Surrey, meanwhile, always appeared in control of their quarter-final at Headingley, eventually beating Yorkshire by 24 runs, and then crushed Worcestershire in the last four after racking up the third 360-plus score of the semi-finals.
The reasonable takeaway from this, then, is that while Surrey have an all-round team, Notts are rather more reliant on their batting.
Throw in the confirmed news that Jake Ball sits out the final, and Stuart Broad’s likely absence, and the balance of power seems to shift Surrey’s way.
Most layers have this as 10/11 each of two. I think, given the injury news and all-eggs-in-one-basket nature of Notts’ knockout progress thus far, that slightly underestimates Surrey’s chances.
In some places, Surrey are actually marginal outsiders, and that looks generous indeed. Marathon are top price at a catchy 99/100, but Surrey are still a bet for me anywhere you can find a slightly stingier if more traditional 10/11.
If Notts are to win, expect a big performance from all-rounder Samit Patel, whose recent form is simply stunning.
He’s 9/2 to top-score for Notts, which may well require a sizeable three-figure contribution based on the evidence from the knockout games, so let’s be greedy and go for the 12/1 in the man of the match market. Patel remains a handy bowler, and took two (admittedly costly) wickets in both the semi-final and quarter-final to go with 122* and 66.
But it’s certainly with the bat where he has kicked on to a whole new level. The pink-ball round of the County Championship may have rather passed him by, but his all-format form in the month leading up to it was outrageous, with two big Championship double-centuries (one of them unbeaten) while his last three Royal London innings have been 103*, 66 and 122*.
He’s certainly worth supporting somewhere, and man of the match looks the best call for me.
Preview posted at 1750 BST on 29/06/2017
