Richard Mann assesses the state of play after day three of the second Test in Multan, where England find themselves on the ropes.
Day four betting update
1pt Joe Root to make a second innings fifty at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Ben Stokes' England team face one of the toughest challenges they will have encountered on Friday, still requiring a further 261 runs on a worn Multan pitch in order to win the second Test.
Pakistan's spinners, with the help of a surface which is now offering plenty of assistance, will expect to finish the job on day four, and eight wickets in the match already for off spinner Sajid Khan suggests he will be hard to stop.
A series of dropped catches and some uncharacteristically sloppy fielding hurt the tourists badly on day three, and while chasing down big scores was a hallmark of the early days of the Stokes/Brendon McCullum era, the conditions were never quite as tough as this.
England, having started the match as big favourites, are now 10/3 with Sky Bet, and in truth, much will depend on not out pair Joe Root and Ollie Pope, along with next man in Harry Brook.
Joe Root and England finish the day with a boundary 🤩
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) October 17, 2024
England reach the close of play at 36-2, needing 261 runs to win the second Test 👀 pic.twitter.com/Mvhdzjg5aJ
With Ben Stokes short of cricket and holding a pretty modest record in Asia overall, and Jamie Smith very light on experience in this part of the world, things could unravel pretty quickly if Root in particular doesn't hold firm.
But hold firm he might. The Yorkshireman boasts outstanding international numbers full stop, but his second innings Test numbers make for very impressive reading.
There is a drop-off from his first innings average, but Root still averages a very healthy 45.58 in the second dig, with 10 hundreds. That is seriously good going.
By way of comparison, Steve Smith averages 39.22 in the second innings of Test matches, Virat Kohli 38.37.
What that tells us is that not only is Root a top-class player, but that his game and technique can stand up to the challenge of batting on wearing pitches. He has always been one of the best players of spin in world cricket.
With that in mind, and resuming on 12 not out, the 6/4 available for Root to make a second-innings fifty looks fair enough given the pitch, though clearly no batsman's paradise, still has runs in it judging by the cricket we have seen so far.
Posted at 1510 BST on 17/10/24
How quickly things can change in Test cricket, particularly in the subcontinent, and a late collapse from England in the evening session of the second day means they are out to 11/8 to win the match, having been firmly in top when Ben Duckett completed a fine hundred just an hour or so earlier.
However, Sajid Khan’s impressive four-wicket haul has turned the match on its head and with England still 127 runs behind, and Jamie Smith the only recognised batsman remaining, it would appear a long way back for the tourists.
The one glimmer of hope is this pitch in Multan, re-used from the first Test and now being readied for its eighth day of cricket. It would appear the wicket has finally ‘gone’, with Sajid gaining appreciable turn late on Wednesday and batting looking increasingly hard work.
That may well prove to be the case as the game goes forward, but I will be interested to see how the surface plays in the morning session after the roller has been across it. There is a chance it may well settle down again, before proving more difficult to bat on later in the day.
I say that because on the second morning, expectations were high that the low bounce we saw late on day two would come to the fore. In fact, the pitch played pretty well for a good session or so, firstly Pakistan’s tail wagging and then Duckett putting on quite the show of shotmaking.
The fact is, only time will tell, but it would put me off completely dismissing England’s chances of mounting another fightback.
Should the dangerous Smith and the capable Brydon Carse manage to whittle that deficit down to somewhere in the region of fifty, England could find themselves right back in the game, given Pakistan’s well-documented frailties in the third innings.
I intend to sit tight for now, and with Jack Leach already on side in the Man of the Match market, having backed him along with Sajid in the pre-match preview here, I don’t feel the need to row in again on the Somerset spinner.
Leach has won England’s top bowler market in every innings of the tour so far, and was 9/4 to do so in the second innings of the first Test, so anything like the same price would clearly be of interest for those not already invested.
Leach could yet fire England back into this contest, but if he can’t, we are well placed with fellow spinner Sajid, so I’m not sure I feel the need to strike another bet going into day three.
Day two betting update
2pts Pakistan first innings runs under 350 at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
What a curious opening day to the second Test, played on a used pitch that is essentially now six days old.
There were clear signs that this pitch isn’t the Multan road we saw in the first Test, spinner Jack Leach claiming two early scalps as spin and low bounce came to the fore in the first 10 overs.
From there, Pakistan did very well to finish the day on 259-5, thanks in the main to Kamran Ghulum’s fine debut hundred, but I’m not sure that score is a true reflection of how things went.
There were missed opportunities for England, including a missed review that would’ve yielded another wicket, and the tourists will feel their efforts deserved more.
There was certainly enough in this tiring surface to suggest the next few days might be hard work for the batsmen, and starting your innings in particular could be tough.
We saw that one wicket generally brought two on Tuesday, and armed with a relatively new ball still only 10 overs old, and refreshed legs, I think England can take wickets in the morning.
The harder the ball, the better for the bowlers on a slow surface like this, so England could quickly wrap up the Pakistan innings if able to strike early.
As such, I’m keen to bet on another collapse, with 5/2 (Sky Bet) about Pakistan’s first innings total finishing below 350 runs making plenty of appeal.
Posted at 1730 BST on 15/10/24
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