Richard Mann assesses the state of play after day three of the first Test in Christchurch, with England pushing hard for victory.
Day four betting update
2pts New Zealand to score over 248.5 second innings runs at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Things are looking good for England after three days of the first Test in Christchurch, New Zealand only four runs ahead with just four second innings wickets remaining.
Favourable overhead bowling conditions kept the seamers interested on day three, and the hosts will be hoping the sun comes out by the time they resume with the bat on day four.
Poor catching again cost the Kiwis, and I lost count of how many lives Harry Brook enjoyed as he marched to a big hundred, but as Ben Stokes and tail-enders Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse also demonstrated, there are still runs to be made on this surface.
Clearly, overhead conditions will play a big part, but for my money, the new ball has been even more important, and Brook and Chris Woakes quickly perished to the second new ball yesterday. New Zealand were then reduced to 23-2 early in their second innings.
But batting did get easier as the ball got soft, and I'm hopeful New Zealand can stretch this one out, resuming on 155-6 and with some handy batting to come.
Daryl Mitchell is 31 not out overnight and this is a man who has hurt England many times before, as three Test hundreds and a current average of 90.66 against this opposition confirms.
He currently has Nathan Smith for company, and his domestic record would suggest he can certainly hold a bat, with Matt Henry and Tim Southee to follow.
Henry (18) and Southee (15) both produced handy cameos in the first innings, and the former has three Test fifties to his name on this ground alone. Southee blasted 73 against England in Wellington in early 2023.
There are still 31 overs until the next new ball, so there could be runs to be had for the Kiwis if they bat well.
I'm backing them TO SCORE OVER 248.5 SECOND INNINGS RUNS at 5/6 with Sky Bet.
With the aid of some charitable New Zealand fielding, Harry Brook struck a crucial century on day two of the first Test to put in England in command in Christchurch.
With five first innings wickets still in hand, England are only 29 runs behind and will begin day three as 4/7 favourites to go on and take a 1-0 series lead.
There might still be mileage in this Test, though, with the new ball only six overs away and potentially affording New Zealand the chance to pick up early wickets to force their way back into the match.
As expected, the wicket at Hagley Oval continues to get better and better and I would expect decent scores in the third and fourth innings.
To that end, England will fancy chasing anything in the region of 300, so deserve to be favourites.
Despite his failure in the first innings, double-figure quotes about Tom Blundell in the top New Zealand batsman market take the eye.
Blundell has two Test match hundreds against England already, and an average of 63.72, so it seems fair to assume he will make his mark at some stage over the next few weeks.
That said, this market looks less appealing now than in the first innings, when a green pitch was expected to give the middle order an advantage.
Brook from number five and Ollie Pope from six in the order went a long way to proving that theory correct, but this pitch now looks a good one for batting, so I'm less keen to strike a bet.
Given the character traits of this England team, and their erratic nature, some will be tempted to trade on New Zealand's current price, confident they will be given a sniff at some stage.
Perhaps that won't prove unwise, but I'm still of the view that batting last will be an advantage on this surface, so no recommended bet has to be the advice, with England seldom a team to take odds-on about.
Day two betting update
2pts Ollie Pope top England first innings batsman at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
The England circus act put on another entertaining show on day one of the first Test in Christchurch, New Zealand closing on 319-8 having lost the toss and batted first on a green pitch that wasn’t too dissimilar in colour to the outfield.
In fairness, the surface played better than first impressions suggested but make no mistake, England’s seamers were largely poor, particularly with the new ball, and it needed four wickets from off spinner Shoaib Bashir to spare the tourists’ blushes.
That England found themselves in such a position, relying on their young finger spinner on day one of a Test match on a green pitch, is a poor reflection of a seam attack that in around 12 months' time will be tasked with winning back the Ashes in Australia.
More immediately, England have two more wickets to take before their attentions turn to batting, and they should still be positive about their chances for the remainder of the match on a wicket that historically gets better to bat on.
Pitch expected to improve
I think we saw signs of that late on the first day, and recent history confirms such a suspicion. In March, Australia successfully chased down 281 batting last at this venue after New Zealand had reached 372 in the third innings – the highest innings score of the match.
Batting last shouldn’t concern England, a point supported by the success this group have enjoyed chasing, and on the face of it, 6/4 about the tourists doesn’t look the worse price in the world.
The issue is, can we really trust this team at the moment? When the going got tough in Pakistan, England’s batting sunk, and Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke will no doubt prove a considerable challenge with the new ball.
Don’t be surprised if England find themselves in trouble early, especially with debutant Jacob Bethell pencilled in to bat at number three, and that means the likes of Joe Root, Harry Brook and OLLIE POPE could have plenty of work to do.
No change there, then, and Brook was outstanding in his previous tour of New Zealand, averaging 82.25, while Root is a truly great player in all conditions, despite what Darren Lehmann might say. To steal a phrase from our very own Graham Cunningham, that argument has more holes than a string vest.
Former Australia coach Darren Lehmann believes Joe Root is a level below Virat Kohli as he is yet to make a hundred in Australia.
— Wisden (@WisdenCricket) November 25, 2024
Read here ➡️ https://t.co/3dxs7t4IWK pic.twitter.com/ZQTCmhPIBk
Don't pass on Pope
Root and Brook are both considered for runs, but Pope looks worth a bet in the top England batsman market now confirmed to bat at number six. 8/1 is too big in my book.
Pope is quite the puzzle, and it is beggars belief that he has been asked to keep wicket this week because England didn’t think to bring a reserve wicket-keeper on tour, instead flying out three spinners to a country where not even one slow bowler is always required. Are you sufficiently enlightened by the genius of Bazball?
But we are where we are, and I wonder if this enforced move down the order to afford Pope sufficient time to rest after his keeping duties might see his batting in a better light.
Pope has his critics, but it’s worth remembering that since taking on the role of number three, he has six hundreds and is averaging 40.28. There is a reason why Root doesn’t want to bat at three: because it’s the hardest place to bat in Test cricket. Pope is doing just fine.
But I’m not alone in thinking that the middle order would be a better fit for this free-flowing stroke-maker, shielded from the new ball and fresh opening bowlers. If Pope has a good match here, England’s think tank could well be faced with a conundrum going forward.
For now, I want to back Pope at 8/1, not just because of my hunch that number six will prove ideal for a man who began his career in the middle order, but also in light of how comfortable Glenn Phillips and even Matt Henry and Tim Southee looked batting late on day one.
We already have a small stake on Gus Atkinson in this market at 80/1, which is fine, but Pope looks a bet now, so I don’t want to let him go.
Posted at 1200 GMT on 28/11/24
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