Cricket betting tips: Preview for South Africa vs Australia first Test in Durban

Cricket tips: South Africa v Australia

3pts South Africa to win the first Test at 6/5 (bet365)

1.5pts Temba Bavuma to make a first innings fifty at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Temba Bavuma top South Africa first innings batsman at 9/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Marco Jansen over 132.5 player performance points at 5/6 (bet365)

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South Africa versus Australia is always one of the highlights on the cricket calendar, but the three-match Test series which begins in Durban on Friday has even more riding on it this time around.

This particular meeting features the top two Test teams in the world according to the rankings, and though Australia currently hold the number one spot, South Africa are World Test champions having defeated Pat Cummins’ men in brilliant fashion in the 2025 final at Lord’s.

And there is added significance to this series, the first red-ball encounter between the two in South Africa since the infamous ball-tampering scandal of 2018.

South Africa won that series, just as they did the ODI series (2-1) played at the end of last month, and I’ll be firmly in the home camp over the next few weeks.

This is an outstanding cricket team, brilliantly led by Temba Bavuma, boasting a fine and varied bowling attack, and a batting unit with lots of different faces. Aiden Markram is a dashing, aggressive opener, Bavuma has turned himself in a run machine at number four, and the middle order is better than serviceable.

Returning Rabada holds the key

That bowling attack leans heavily on Kagiso Rabada, who claimed nine Australian wickets in that World Test Championship final, meaning the paceman now has 58 wickets from 11 matches against this opponent at an average of 21.39.

The Proteas will be desperate to get Rabada on the park on Friday after he missed the ODI series with a hamstring injury, though the likes of Marco Jansen and Keshav Maharaj ensure this is no one-man band. With the rapid Anrich Nortje in the mix to play his first Test since February 2023, things are looking good, especially with the vibes surrounding Rabada seemingly positive.

While that Lord’s victory remains fresh in the memory, we shouldn’t forget this South Africa outfit beat India 2-0 in India at the end of last year, dishing out a 408-run hammering in the second game. Not many sides can do that.

Ageing Australian vulnerable

Australia would counter that their attack is pretty good in its own right. In fact, one could argue that there is more sex appeal to Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon.

This is a top-class attack that has conquered many mountains, but Cummins is the youngest member of the four at 33 and he missed the majority of last winter’s Ashes through injury. Hazlewood missed the whole series, while Lyon looked every one of his 38 years when Bangladesh of all teams routed Australia in August.

Moreover, this is the same Australia bowling group that came up short in that 2018 series, resorting to using sandpaper on the ball in an attempt to gain some semblance of stranglehold on the South Africans. If that sounds like a blunt way of putting it, it’s because it is. It’s also the truth.

Eight years on, Starc is the only one who looks a better bowler to my eye, and the durability of this group to last three Tests in under a month has to be questioned. In Scott Boland, the tourists at least have a solid support act.

However, bigger concerns for Australia centre around the batting. In the current cycle of the World Test Championship, which runs from June 2025 to June 2027, the only Australians currently averaging over 40 are Travis Head and Steve Smith. Marnus Labuschagne’s form has fallen off a cliff, while Matt Renshaw now returns for another crack as opener following a host of failed experiments.

It will be fascinating to see how successful Head proves to be in South African conditions, a notoriously tough place to face the new ball on wickets that tend to be green early on and offer good pace and bounce. With that in mind, Head could easily drop back down the order, which would leave Australia very light on Test-match experience up top.

It was only in August that Bangladesh razed Australia for 198 and 284 in Darwin, and there were many times that England’s pace attack exposed similar weaknesses, only for their own batting to come up short in last winter’s Ashes.

This ruthless South Africa team won’t make those same mistakes, and I make the hosts a good bet at 6/5 to start with a win in Durban.

All-round Jansen primed for Durban

The side markets are equally appealing, and I want to play OVERS ON MARCO JANSEN’S PLAYER PERFORMANCE POINTS (132.5).

Jansen is a three-dimensional cricketer absolutely tailor-made for home conditions where he can use his height to his advantage on fast, bouncy pitches that make his left-arm angle very hard to face. He generally swings the new ball, too, away from the left-handers, which could mean big trouble for Australia’s openers.

In home Test matches, Jansen has 51 wickets from 10 games, while his dangerous batting has continued to improve, seeing him stoke two fifties in his last five Tests. More evidence of that came when Jansen blasted 75 against Australia in the first ODI recently, an attack featuring Starc and Hazlewood.

When you throw Jansen’s bucket hands into the mix, and that he generally fields in the cordon or at first slip to the spinners, all pointers suggest the giant all-rounder is set for a big game.

Banker Bavuma a strong bet

So, too, should home skipper TEMBA BAVUMA, and I’ll be splitting stakes on the doughty right-hander to MAKE A FIRST INNINGS FIFTY (11/4) and to be TOP SOUTH AFRICA FIRST INNINGS BATSMAN (9/2).

Bavuma has put together a fine record in this format, especially in the last three years. In that period, Bavuma has played 13 Tests, making three hundreds and six fifties at an average of 53.25. Crucially, each of those centuries came at home, including a magnificent 113 here in Durban in 2024 having made 70 in the first innings.

As has long been the case, Bavuma continues to be underestimated by the layers, and I’ll back him to start this fascinating series with a bang.

Preview posted at 13:00 BST on 06/10/26

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Following victory in Leeds, it’s hard to see Dasun Shanaka earning a recall for the tourists, but should he the get the nod, this is a middle-order finisher who, too, could have things fall his way on Sunday.