Richard Mann has some strong angles for the third Test between England and New Zealand, which starts at Trent Bridge on Thursday.
Cricket tips: England v New Zealand third Test
2pts Daryl Mitchell to make a first innings fifty at 2/1 (General)
1pt Harry Brook to make a first innings century at 5/1 (BOYLE Sports)
1pt Harry Brook to make a century in the match at 10/3 (bet365)
England’s Test series with New Zealand is beautifully poised ahead of the decider in Nottingham on Thursday, the tourists back in business courtesy of a commanding victory at the Oval last week.
In truth, the second Test proved a mismatch in all departments, but England were forced to field three debutants and a couple more rookies last week, and it showed as the Kiwis proved more savvy and ruthless across the four and a bit days.
We should remember that England were dominant themselves in the previous game when at close to full strength, and Ben Stokes, Gus Atkinson and Jamie Smith are all expected to return, while Jofra Archer, who was excellent at the Oval, will help form what looks a strong bowling attack on paper.
Good weather points to big runs
With a scorching week in prospect across the country, head coach Brendon McCullum will surely consider picking off-spinner Shoaib Bashir, and having Stokes back in the side gives England a fourth seamer. Stokes and McCullum might reckon that superior balance gives them the advantage in Nottingham, and they could well be correct on that.
England are currently trading around the even-money mark to win the match and series, with the 6/4 about New Zealand looking about right. The tourists are clearly a solid outfit, but England triumphed by five wickets when the two sides met on this ground back in 2022, a series they won 3-0 to highlight a general trend of dominance over the Kiwis in recent years.
I’d just favour England, back at full strength, but not with anywhere near enough conviction to take short odds, and there are enough chinks in their armour to suggest New Zealand could yet complete what would be a fine comeback, for all I remain unconvinced about their top order, and their lack of spin.
The 2022 Test on this ground already referenced was played in similarly good weather, and the pitch was a belter which held up throughout. New Zealand batted first and scored 553, before England hit back with 539 and then chased down 296 at a canter as Jonny Bairstow blasted an unbeaten 136 from just 92 balls.
That result came in Bazball’s honeymoon period, but when the weather plays ball, this has proven to be a very good place to bat. In white-ball cricket, there might not be anywhere better in England, and only last summer England feasted on an admittedly ordinary Zimbabwe attack to post 565-6 declared. The previous year, England and the West Indies both scored over 400 in their respective first innings.
Bashir dangerous if making the cut
Bashir took five wickets in the fourth innings of that game, and his record from two Tests at Trent Bridge reads 16 wickets at an average of 18.25. Given Leach got through a mountain of overs here in 2022, and that Michael Bracewell took 3-62 in the first innings for the Kiwis, the case for England to pick their number one spinner here, and for him to take wickets, appears sound.
Perhaps he’ll be an even greater threat in the second innings, and it’s worth noting that New Zealand’s top four is made up exclusively of left-handers, though there is an argument to be made for Will Young replacing Devon Conway as opener.
Reverse swing can also be a factor on this ground in dry weather, if the outfield becomes bare, so the returning Stokes is another of the bowlers who might actually prove more of a threat here than the likes of Archer and Ollie Robinson, who will no doubt make the headlines and dominate the book.
Back Brook to tame Trent Bridge
I do, however, remain of the view this will be a batsman’s game in the first innings, and think now is the time to back HARRY BROOK TO MAKE A FIRST INNINGS CENTURY (5/1).
Brook has been simmering away all summer, making a very good half-century in trying conditions at Lord’s, before adding 24 and 58 last week when looking set to reach three-figures in the second innings. He was undone by some good bowling from the excellent Matt Henry there, but that happens.
More broadly, Brook’s record against New Zealand is very good, averaging 62.84 from seven Tests, with three hundreds and now five fifties. New Zealand clearly fear Brook, and so they should with the potential for a flat pitch in Nottingham. The ball really flies on this ground, particularly if you bowl width, and at some stage this summer Brook will explode with a big score.
For those with a bet365 account, I'd advise splitting stakes with BROOK TO MAKE A CENTURY IN THE MATCH (10/3), giving us two bites of the cherry in a day and age where second-innings runs are easier to come by than in years gone by.
I’m still positive about Joe Root, too, who made scores 46 and 76 last week, but by bringing the wicket-keeper up to the stumps when he’s batting, New Zealand have clearly found a way to trouble the Yorkshireman whose usual trigger movement is impacted by this tactic, resulting in him being dismissed LBW three times in the series already from just four innings.
Joe Root is GONE ❌
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) June 21, 2026
Matt Henry gets Root LBW! pic.twitter.com/KCSIZqdKeN
Mitchell the man for New Zealand
As such, I’ll leave Root alone this week, though an in-play wager on the returning Smith could be on the cards if he comes to the crease sufficiently shielded from the new ball and with conditions good for batting.
I’ve never minded the nappy factor angle so Smith, who recently became a father for the second time, should be on a high this week and is the type of aggressive, strong back-foot player who will be ideally suited by the nature of the ground and pitch in Nottingham.
For the Kiwis, I’ve finally abandoned the Blundell top team batsman project after the number six threw his wicket away on 51 at the Oval, but it’s worth remembering that both he and Daryl Mitchell hit centuries at this venue in 2022.
In fact, Mitchell added 62 in the second innings of that match, too, and scores of 44 and 68 in the second Test suggest his game is in good order. He's a middle-order master averaging 54.00 against England, so MITCHELL TO MAKE A FIRST INNINGS FIFTY looks good business at 2/1.
Mitchell was a thorn in England's side on the tour of these shores in 2022, and appears to be working his way back to top form just at the right time as the series sets up for its final act.
Posted at 14:40 BST on 22/06/26
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