Cricket betting tips: Pakistan v India, Asia Cup preview and best bets
Richard Mann previews the big clash between Pakistan and India from the Asia Cup on Saturday morning – don't miss his in-depth analysis and best bets here.
Cricket betting tips: Asia Cup, Pakistan v India
2pts Pakistan to beat India at 13/8 (General)
The Asia Cup is firmly up and running and on Saturday, the tournament plays host to the biggest match in cricket – Pakistan versus India from Pallekele.
Virat Kohli hauled India over the line in the latest epic clash between these two sides at the T20 World Cup in October, though there was a win for Pakistan before that at the Asia Cup, when this competition was played in the T20 format. On recent form at least, there is little to choose between both teams.
The Pallekele pitch is usually very good for batting, so that ought to suit both outfits who boast experienced batting line-ups with good depth, and strong, well-rounded bowling attacks featuring top-class quick bowlers.
As always, India are expected to go off warm favourites, but I don’t think that's a fair reflection and anything in the region of 13/8 or bigger about PAKISTAN screams value.
India sweat over returning stars
I’ll get on to the names and numbers in due course, but perhaps the biggest negative against India is just how little cricket their expected starting XI have played together in this format of late, and how many injury concerns surrounding big players they have had to contend with.
Strike bowler Jasprit Bumrah left a huge hole in the team when missing the T20 World Cup in Australia and until a couple of T20 matches against Ireland in recent weeks confirmed his return from injury, his previous competitive appearance was in September, 2022. He looked sharp against Ireland, but this will be a different test altogether, particularly getting through 10 overs in multiple spells, and spending 50 overs in the field.
Shreyas Iyer is another on the comeback trail following a lengthy layoff, and he is expected to bat at number four in KL Rahul’s absence following the latter’s latest injury setback. Ishan Kishan will keep wicket, but where he bats is another question mark, with India surely wanting to find room in that middle order for the destructive Suryakumar Yadav whose ODI record to date is poor and a far cry from his T20 exploits.
The middle order doesn’t look settled or balanced, for all it has plenty of quality, while the usually potent bowling might just be short of sharpness if Bumrah isn’t yet cherry ripe.
Pakistan appear more settled. Their opening pair are prolific, followed by the deadly duo of Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan. There is flair and power in the middle order, too, from Shadab Khan and Iftikhar Ahmed, the latter having struck a brilliant hundred in the opening match win over Nepal on Wednesday.
Pakistan pace attack hard to resist
But where Pakistan are even stronger is with the ball. Shadab is a high-quality wrist spinner, and the pace attack is arguably the best in the world. Shaheen Afridi usually gets the ball rolling with Naseem Shah, before Haris Rauf generally operates in excess of 90mph bowling first change.
Shaheen averages 23.08 with the ball in this format, Naseem 16.15, and Rauf 25.76. The numbers tell you this is an outstanding bowling attack, and England fans will remember how they very nearly defended 137 in the T20 World Cup final in November. Had Shaheen not limped off injured, Pakistan might well have been victorious there.
For my money, this is Pakistan’s strongest format. It suits their bowling attack best and the batsmen are more comfortable at this pace than in T20 cricket. Having warmed up for this competition by playing some hard cricket in a recent series win over Afghanistan, they might well be better prepared than India, too.
As such, 13/8 about Pakistan certainly appeals as fair – and I’ll settle at those odds regardless – though further support for India before the Toss on Saturday is likely, and Pakistan might well be forced out to an even bigger price by then.
I’m in no rush to force a bet in the side markets. Kohli’s record against Pakistan – an average of 48.72 from 13 ODIs and 81.33 average from 10 T20s – makes him of obvious appeal and he often stands up on the biggest stage, but the market reflects that, so I’ll happily leave him on this occasion.
Rauf is generally overpriced against Shaheen in the top Pakistan bowler market, but as I’ve already argued, this market features an excellent field and the result could go a number of ways of any given day.
Bet LBW against Indian openers
One bet I will be striking is LBW for next method of dismissal when India begin their innings. Shaheen’s left-arm inswing makes it a huge runner with the new ball, regardless, but I really like the match-up with India’s opening pair.
Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill are both excellent players, but when the ball swings, the latter can still be guilty of defending with a closed bat face. That can leave him vulnerable to LBW, while Shaheen pinned Rohit first ball with a sharp inswinger when Pakistan beat India at the 2021 T20 World Cup.
Shaheen will be gunning for that method of dismissal against both Indian openers, and with the skiddy Naseem operating with the new ball at the opposite end, LBW will definitely be in play. Anything above 7/2 would be a bet.
Preview posted at 0740 BST on 31/08/2023
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