Pakistan and Australia will kick off a three-match Test series in Rawalpindi on Friday – Richard Mann has bets ranging from 66/1 to 11/2 in his first Test preview.
Cricket tips: Pakistan v Australia first Test
2pts Fawad Alam top Pakistan first innings batsman at 11/2 (General)
0.5pts Ashton Agar top Australia first innings batsman at 50/1 (Betway)
0.5pts Mitchell Starc top Australia first innings batsman at 66/1 (Boylesports)
Test cricket takes centre stage this week with India hosting Sri Lanka and a fascinating series between Pakistan and Australia starting in Rawalpindi on Friday.
This is a significant moment, not just because the three-match series pits two of the strongest Tests sides in the world against one another, but also because it will see one of cricket’s leading forces play a Test series in Pakistan.
Security threats have meant Pakistan fans have been starved of international cricket for too long, but after South Africa toured these shores in 2021, the way has seemingly been paved for Australia and others to follow suit.
This series is also significant because it will be the first time Australia has played an overseas Test since 2019, promising something of an acid test for Pat Cummins’ outfit who steamrollered a woeful England in the Ashes a few months ago but are expected to meet much sterner resistance here.
Australia pace attack faces final frontier
One of the key battlegrounds for this series will be in the pace bowling department, with Cummins and co responsible for consistently dismantling England’s batting line-up in the Ashes and promising to be well suited to a Rawalpindi pitch that while generally true, had plenty of pace in it when Hasan Ali claimed 10 wickets against South Africa last year.
Still, from a small sample size, the omens aren’t particularly good for Australia’s pacers who have generally struggled in their limited experience of playing in Asia.
Mitchell Starc has been the best of them, and his career average and strike-rate are identical in Asia to his numbers at home. Not so Cummins whose strike-rate rises to 60.0 in Asia from 45.9 at home. Josh Hazlewood has been particularly ineffective in Asia with his strike-rate ballooning to 83.5 from 56.0 at home.
Another challenge for Australia will be how to put big runs on the board against a savvy home attack led by the brilliant Shaheen Afridi. David Warner has yet to conclusively prove that he is the same player out of Australia, while it will be fascinating to see how Marnus Labuschagne deals with this latest challenge.
On balance, there are enough doubts about Australia to favour Pakistan at home, though the fact some of their biggest stars come into this series off the back of the very recent Pakistan Super League isn’t ideal, and Australia will hope they can catch the hosts cold in the first Test at least.
As such, I won’t be playing the series outright market at this stage. My attentions will instead be focused on the submarkets, beginning with Friday's first Test.
With Nathan Lyon heading the betting for top Australia first innings bowler, I had initially been keen to look elsewhere, with the aforementioned Cummins seemingly the obvious alternative.
Regular readers of these pages will know I’m a huge fan of the Australian captain and his ability to get through lots of overs in tough conditions, while Lyon rates a poor favourite in my book, given how pace dominated here when South Africa visited in 2021 and that he is a finger spinner who generally looks to control the run rate in the first innings.
In the second innings, Lyon is sure to become an attacking weapon, but I’m not sure that will be the case in the first innings, though Cummins’ modest numbers in Asia so far, comparative to Starc’s impressive ones, mean the water is muddied a little when trying to take a firm view against Lyon.
Take big top batsman prices in first Test
I’ll leave that for now, with the top batsman markets more appealing.
For Australia, the aforementioned Afridi is sure to provide a genuine threat up front with the new ball and if that plays out as expected, a middle order with little experience of these conditions could come under severe pressure.
Steve Smith then becomes the obvious choice, though I’m not sure he looked at his brilliant best in the Ashes, or in fact in the previous couple of years. It’s certainly too early to be writing him off, but Smith has only made one century in his last 10 Test matches.
With a few questions to answer in the batting and a strong Pakistan attack sure to pose plenty of challenges, I’m keen to take a flyer at big prices with the 50/1 about ASHTON AGAR very appealing, so too the 66/1 on MITCHELL STARC.
Agar is no certainty to line up on Friday, but money back if he doesn’t play applies, and he’s too good a player to be that sort of price if the top order comes under fierce early pressure. Agar’s batting talents saw him make a memorable 99 in an Ashes Test against England on his debut at Trent Bridge in 2013.
More recently, Agar was given a chance to open the batting in ODI cricket against Sri Lanka and should Australia opt to play a second spinner in Pakistan, the batting prowess of the flamboyant left hander might earn him the nod.
With three First Class hundreds to his name, Agar can certainly bat, and at some stage in the series, this market could easily be won by someone making 40 or 50.
While not as accomplished a batsman as Agar, Starc is a handy operator, too, and he gets the vote over Cummins as my second bet in this market.
I’ve always felt Cummins could become a better batsman than he has shown so far, but Starc inched ahead of him in the Australian batting order towards the end of the Ashes having averaged close to 40 thanks to a number of handy, aggressive cameos.
Something similar might well suffice along the way here and I’ll keep backing my pair to small stakes at such inflated odds.
Fawad set to shine for Pakistan
With much more confidence, I’m very keen on the claims of Pakistan’s FAWAD ALAM whose record belies a technique that really shouldn’t work but has seen him build a fine domestic and international record. Fawad now averages 47.65 in 15 Tests with five centuries and two half-centuries.
That is a staggering conversion rate and, as always, I like his spot at number five in the batting order that offers him some protection from the new ball but generally ensures him enough opportunities to get a piece of the action.
Fawad hasn’t spent the last few weeks playing T20 cricket, as is the case with the likes of Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan, and the hope is that he’s well prepared and ready to hit the ground running against the red ball.
Even if a lack of red-ball preparation doesn’t hold Babar and Rizwan back, Fawad still rates big value at 11/2 and deserves to head the staking plan.
Published at 1640 GMT on 02/03/22
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