New Zealand and South Africa begin a two-match Test series in Christchurch on Wednesday night – Richard Mann has two selections in his preview.
Cricket tips: New Zealand v South Africa Test series
2pts South Africa to win the series at 9/2 (bet365, Sky Bet)
1pt Will Young top New Zealand first-innings batsman in first Test at 9/2 (General)
Test cricket returns to the fore in Christchurch on Wednesday evening (2200 GMT) as New Zealand host SOUTH AFRICA for the first Test of a two-match series that really ought to be three matches at least, perhaps even four, given the quality of the two sides on show.
New Zealand are the current ICC Test Championship holders having defeated India in England back in June, while South Africa are a side on the up having only recently beaten India 2-1 in a high-quality series played on their own shores.
An away trip to New Zealand promises a tougher test again – especially with the impressive Keegan Peterson missing the tour because of Covid-19 – but the Kiwis have gaps to plug, too, with captain Kane Williamson still injured and Ross Taylor recently retired. Trent Boult meanwhile is expected to miss the first Test.
New Zealand’s top order does remain strong, and I’m a huge fan of Will Young and Devon Conway, but this is a different team to the one that has been so dominant over the last few years, with Tom Blundell yet to prove he can fill BJ Watling’s shoes behind the sticks, and the rest of the middle order failing to convince in the recent drawn series at home to Bangladesh.
The Kiwi bowling is typically potent, with any number of pace options, but South Africa also pack a punch in that department, with Kagiso Rabada improving as the series went on against India and Marco Jansen looking a fine prospect. The continued absence of Anrich Nortje could hurt them, but Lungi Ngidi and Duanne Olivier are adequate replacements.
It’s in the batting department where South Africa might hold an advantage, though, with their middle and lower order contributing vital runs against India and promising to do so again in this series. If they can use the new ball effectively against an admittedly very good Kiwi top three, taking 20 wickets shouldn’t be a problem for the Proteas.
As such, 8/11 for New Zealand to win the series looks awfully short, with a drawn series (11/5) or a South Africa win (9/2) making much more appeal. I expect a competitive series and while 1-1 in the series correct score market looks a big runner, I’m more inclined to chance South Africa at the prices.
I really do think this is a team going places in all three formats, with Dean Elgar leading from the front in typically gritty fashion and being well backed up by an excellent attack, and batsmen Temba Bavuma, Rassie van der Dussen and Aiden Markram who all boast the quality to score heavily in the next few weeks.
Quinton de Kock’s retirement from Test cricket is a loss, as is Peterson’s aforementioned absence, but the likes of Kyle Verreynne, Sarel Erwee and Zubayr Hamza promise to make up into worthy replacements. I’m a particularly big fan of Hamza and while he probably won't get a game in this series, he’s a name to look out for in the future.
In the submarkets, I’ll just about pass on van der Dussen who is a real favourite of mine but hasn’t yet nailed Test cricket in the same way he has the white-ball formats. I’d expect van der Dussen to put that right before long, but finding the right tempo for his batting in Test cricket is something he must work on, and I’ll probably use these two Tests as a watching brief with regards to him.
That won’t be the case with WILL YOUNG who, to my eye, looks a terrific Test cricketer in the making.
Young is now seven matches into his career and already boasts an average edging towards 40. That’s pretty good going considering that two of those matches came on a tough tour of India before Christmas. Young acquitted himself well in those alien conditions, but I think his game is better served against pace and the moving ball, skills he will need against this strong South African attack.
A spell with Durham in the County Championship will have no doubt helped to sharpen Young’s game, and I was very impressed with the 82 he made against James Anderson and Stuart Broad at Edgbaston last summer. He displayed sound judgement in that innings, leaving well and playing the ball late, and ought to enjoy a really good Test career.
With no series betting at the time of writing, playing match by match is the only option, but 9/2 for Young in the top New Zealand first-innings batsman market in the opening Test rates fair value, with the Kiwi middle and lower order not convincing me at present.
At the top of the order, Conway and Tom Latham are much more assured, but they are considerably shorter in the betting, and Young is worth supporting at the prices, just as he might be once bookmakers have priced him up to make a first-innings fifty.
Published at 1250 GMT on 15/02/22
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