Richard Mann has a couple of bets in his preview of Sunday's third ODI between England and South Africa, which takes place at Headingley.
Cricket tips: England v South Africa third ODI
2pts both teams to score 300+ runs at 13/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Rassie van der Dussen top South Africa batsman at 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
The old saying ‘it always rains in Manchester’ was given plenty of airtime on Friday, with the second ODI between England and South Africa eventually reduced to 29 overs per side following persistent rain in the morning.
Still, the skies relented just enough to make a game of it, though South Africa hadn’t read the script and slumped to 83 all out in reply to England’s 201 all out. It was a sharp crash back down to earth for the tourists who had been so impressive when registering a 62-run victory in Durham on Tuesday.
A short trip across the Pennies sees the third and final ODI take place at Headingley, Leeds on Sunday, and while far from perfect, an early look at the weather forecast is more promising. Don’t discount the occasional interruption, but we might just get a full game in.
That’s good news for players, fans, and punters alike. While Headingley might still retain its reputation for being a hard place to bat, where seam and swing rules, more recent evidence would suggest that has changed in a big way.
Headingley favours the batsmen
This summer’s Test match on this ground provided a brilliant surface to bat on, one which saw England chase down 296 in the fourth innings in under 55 overs, while Headingley saw plenty of big runs in the T20 Blast, too.
In fact, there have been some mammoth scores in Leeds this season, particularly in the Blast, with 445 total runs scored in 39.2 overs when Yorkshire hosted Birmingham Bears, 442 runs in 40 overs when Lancashire visited, and 417 runs piled up in only 37.4 overs when Yorkshire chased down 208 against Durham easily. Yorkshire also made 202-5 against Nottinghamshire.
A good summer on the weather front has certainly helped batsmen and the Headingley groundsman, but it was a dank day when Yorkshire and Birmingham played out their run-fest, perhaps suggesting that the old adage about overcast conditions in Leeds equalling total disaster for batters might not be quite as relevant with the white ball as it remains with its red counterpart.
With the square at Headingley sure to be bone dry anyway, and the groundsman obviously keen to showcase the best of his ground and encourage a high-scoring match, I’m not sure the potential for a little bit of inclement weather is enough to put me off backing big runs here.
If anything, that might just have titled the value back in our favour and, ultimately, I’d be very surprised if we didn’t get very good conditions for batting on Sunday.
As such, I’m happy to bet big runs, with South Africa displaying their batting might when posting 333-5 in Durham, despite the pitch appearing a little tacky and one-paced, while England still made 271 in reply.
There is little doubt that England’s powerhouse batting line-up has failed to hit its straps since switching from the Test area, but runs for Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow on Tuesday has to be a positive, as was Joe Root’s return to form following a brief lull, while Liam Livingstone and Sam Curran turned the second ODI on its head with some brutal hitting at Old Trafford.
Big runs and reliable Rassie worth a bet
Both teams to score 275+ runs here looks banker material to me, but I’ll take the bigger prices on offer with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook for BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 300+ RUNS at 13/5. Don’t rule out a few more, too, but that might be one for betting on the first-innings runs line only.
Elsewhere, I make no apologies for sticking with RASSIE VAN DER DUSSEN, my selection at old Trafford following his brilliant 134 in Durham, only to be dismissed strangled down the leg side.
Van der Dussen was in a league of his own in Durham, proving one of the few batsmen on either side to find scoring quickly easy, and once again confirming this format to be his strongest.
The 33-year-old now averages a staggering 71.38 in 37 ODIs, with three hundreds and 11 fifties, putting him in elite company and suggesting he remains on the upgrade.
Since the beginning of 2022, van der Dussen has made two centuries from only eight matches, averaging 90.00 in that period against opponents of the calibre of India and England, and I firmly believe he will keep churning out the big runs.
With Paddy Power and Betfair Sporstbook still offering 9/2 about him in the top South Africa batsman market, he is worth sticking with.
Posted at 1600 BST on 23/07/22
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