Lord's takes centre stage on Thursday as England and India get back to business in the third Test, where Richard Mann is predicting more hard work for the bowlers.
Cricket betting tips: England v India
1pt Rishabh Pant to make a first innings fifty at 2/1 (Betway)
1pt Rishabh Pant to make a first innings century at 5/1 (General)
1pt Ravi Jadeja to make a first innings fifty at 11/4 (Betway)
England versus India is turning into quite the series, now beautifully poised heading into the third Test which will begin at Lord’s on Thursday.
Having thrown away a position of strength at Headingley, India came roaring back in Birmingham last week, dominating from start to finish to win by 336 runs.
The top-order batting again impressed, Shubman Gill’s brilliance in both innings underpinning scores of 587 and 427-6 declared, and he received plenty of support, too. If the pitches remain flat for the rest of the summer, there is no reason why this batting line-up won’t continue to prosper.
However, perhaps more impressive from an Indian perspective was that a bowling attack that struggled so badly in Leeds was able to pick up 20 wickets on a docile and flat Edgbaston surface without star man Jasprit Bumrah. And crucially, it was the seamers who did the bulk of the damage.
Akash Deep looks a real find ideally suited to English conditions, and he was thoroughly deserving of his 10 wickets in the match. Mohammed Siraj was outstanding in the first innings when he claimed 6-70.
Akash promises to be a real handful at Lord’s where its famous slope should ensure his ability to seam the ball both ways will be very tricky to face. If the pitch is on the low side, he could hit the pads and stumps a fair amount.
England must now prepare for the certain return of Bumrah to India’s starting XI, and suddenly, this looks an attack that can cause big problems even if the pitches are flat.
I don’t think England captain Ben Stokes did himself any favours by suggesting on Sunday that the pitch at Edgbaston was akin to playing in the ‘subcontinent’ and thus suited the tourists more than his own team.
Let’s not forget, Stokes did win the toss on the first morning and twice watched his top four bat poorly and offer a series of moderate shots. Zak Crawley endured another poor match when put up against strong opposition.
And even in the fourth innings, it was hard to know exactly what England’s plan was on day five when victory was out of the question, but the prospects of salvaging a draw were most definitely not. To watch the lower order enjoying themselves with a rendition of calypso cricket did not reflect the realities of the scoreboard.
It's the refusal of this team to scrap and fight on anyone else’s terms that will hurt England fans most, though more immediately, I’d imagine any crisis talks will centre around the bowling, which for the most part in Birmingham, looked ordinary.
I’d expect Chris Woakes to be ‘rested’ for Lord’s, but as we have seen away from home in the past, he becomes very ineffective when the pitches are flat and there is little sideways movement on offer. His speeds have been noticeably down, too. Shoaib Bashir will retain his place, but it’s probably kind to describe him as a work in progress at this stage. Jack Leach really ought to be playing.
All that means that Jofra Archer and Gus Atkinson are likely to return for the hosts, an exciting prospect, but not one without risk given neither have played much First Class cricket of late. Archer has only played a single County Championship match this summer following a prolonged spell on the sidelines and then a diet of white-ball cricket.
Given weather forecasters are predicting another heatwave across the UK this week, and India’s penchant for batting long, things could get ugly for the hosts if the pitch is flat and India’s top order again beds in for the long haul. This is where England are really missing a world-class spinner.
With all that in mind, I would favour India this week, with Bumrah’s return one of the key factors. Nevertheless, current quotes of 7/5 are about right, and I’d much prefer to wait and hope for better opportunities in-play.
As I’ve argued many times before, match situations and the match market can change so quickly with this England team that chancing your arm at bigger prices is often the best way to play Bazball.
One thing I am sure of is that we’ll get another good batting surface at Lord's. The pitch for the recent World Test Championship final between Australia and South Africa was a pretty good one, with the Proteas successfully chasing down 282 in the fourth innings for the loss of only five wickets.
The recent trend at Lord’s has been for the pitches to hold up well across four and five-day matches, though this ground isn’t alone in that. However, I’d argue that the lower scores in the first three innings of that World Test Championship final were down to outstanding seam bowling, backed up by good catching, and some substandard batting.
That’s not to say I’d be mad keen to play runs on the first morning, where Lord’s can often offer something with the new ball, but as long as the sun is shining, I’d expect this match to again be dominated by the bat.
And that leads me onto the milestones market, with RISHABH PANT given another chance having fluffed his lines with a poor shot in the first innings at Edgbaston.
It was normal service resumed as he struck 65 in the second innings to go with the two hundreds he made in the first Test in Leeds.
Pant just looks to have England’s number right now, with four centuries from only 11 Tests on these shores, and this is generally a good ground for betting the middle order when the new ball has been negotiated and any live grass that has been left on the surface at the start slowly burnt away by the summer sun.
The biggest concern is whether Pant can curb his instincts against Bashir, an adversary he clearly doesn’t hold a great deal of respect for, but I do wonder if those two dismissals to England’s spinner last week will serve as a wake-up call.
I’m struggling to find too many negatives about Pant right now, so splitting stakes on him to make a FIRST INNINGS FIFTY and a FIRST INNINGS CENTURY looks the obvious play.
I’m less inclined to stick with Joe Root, more because of Bumrah’s return rather than a quiet game in Birmingham.
On the contrary, Harry Brook is red-hot right now, though he’s another I’m minded to swerve, with the nagging feeling that he has enjoyed his fair share of good fortune in this series so far, particularly in the first innings in Leeds.
Don’t be afraid to bet overs on Jamie Smith’s runs should, like last week, he be called upon relatively early in the piece, and as I’ve already alluded too, the middle order is usually a nice spot to bat at Lord’s.
With that in mind, attention turns to RAVI JADEJA the batsman.
Regular readers of these pages will know I’ve long been a fan of Jadeja’s batting, particularly away from home, and two more fifties in the second Test underlined what a reliable, gritty batsman he has become.
He batted at number six at Edgbaston, not before time, and it shouldn’t escape anyone’s attention that Jadeja now averages 37.12 with the bat against England, with two hundreds and eight fifties. That average only drops marginally to 34.83 in England, which is not bad at all when you consider that Jadeja spent much of the early part of his career batting at numbers seven, eight and even nine in the batting order.
I do like the middle-order theme this week, and how Jadeja adopted a relatively risk-free approach in Birmingham when he put a premium on his wicket and was happy to grind out a score.
More of the same will suffice at Lord’s, so I'll take the 11/4 on offer with Betway for Jadeja to make a FIRST INNINGS FIFTY.
At the time of writing, Betway are the only firm to offer a price on Jadeja for this market, so that's one to keep a close eye on in the coming days.
Preview published at 1615 BST on 07/07/25
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