Richard Mann looks at the state of play ahead of day five at Old Trafford, where England are a shade of odds-against to wrap up the series.
The fourth Test is set for a grandstand finish in Manchester on Sunday, with England still eight wickets from match and series victory following a brave Indian rearguard on Saturday afternoon.
For the fourth time in as many matches in a series that continues to give, there is no overwhelming favourite going into the final day.
Sky Bet favour the draw, but only at 8/13, and a couple of early strikes for England would make the current 6/5 about the hosts look very big.
England were considerably shorter when Chris Woakes claimed two wickets in the first over of the innings, but an unbroken stand of 174 between captain Shubman Gill and KL Rahul has given India more than a puncher’s chance of keeping the series alive.
More than Gill and Rahul, the pitch at Old Trafford should take the credit from India supporters. Though dry, this surface has not yet broken apart and, if anything, has lost life as the match has progressed.
This is nothing new. There was a County Championship match here earlier in the season when James Anderson, armed with a brand new Dukes ball, could get nothing out of a day four surface that gave a new meaning to the word dead. Derbyshire’s tail-enders were able to resist even the great Anderson, camping on the front foot as yet another match was drawn.
With respect to Derbyshire, India’s classy top seven really should have no fears about this pitch, with England having no wrist-spinner in their ranks and a now weary seam attack.
But, we’ve been here before. Only last week did India implode in the final innings, at Lord’s, making a mess of what should’ve been a leisurely run chase. With the match on the line, panic set in, and bang.
I fear there is a soft underbelly to this India side. They have dominated much of the series, yet find themselves staring down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit. Give England credit, of course, but India have continually hurt themselves in key moments.
Despite a flat, unresponsive pitch, and some tired legs in the England camp, Headingley and Lord’s tell us that an Indian collapse is never far away, and there will be immense pressure on that middle-order should a couple of wickets fall early.
I’m not strong enough on England to take relatively prohibitive odds, but a wicketless hour could see them drift markedly, at which point I’d be keen to take a chance on an India wobble.
This Test match is far from being done.
A 38th Test hundred from Joe Root, one which took him to second place on the list of Test-match runscorers, has put England firmly on course to win the fourth Test in Manchester, and within touching distance of wrapping up the series.
England now find themselves with a lead 186 runs with three first-innings wickets still remaining, one of them the unbeaten but clearly weary Ben Stokes who had progressed to 77 by the close of play.
Root ended with a sublime 150 to confirm this pitch remains a very good one for batting, though as predicted last night, the spinners are beginning to have more and more impact on the game.
A 38th Test match hundred.
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) July 25, 2025
The third-highest run-scorer in Tests.
England's greatest ever bat tons up at Old Trafford. 👑 pic.twitter.com/4SGpo1j3TF
That was in part because of a lack of potency from India's seamers, with spearhead Jasprit Bumrah particularly disappointing.
In truth, Bumrah just doesn't look fit enough for the Test format in a long series like this, and it's somewhat surprising to see him hobbling around the park, having been rested for the second Test, while the likes of Mohammed Siraj and Stokes have soldiered on.
It was only a few weeks ago that Bumrah was being hailed as the greatest Test-match bowler of all time, but he's made little impact this week and sat out that second Test in Birmingham, meaning that across a five-match series, he's only really impacted two games, with his absence at the Oval next week already confirmed by the Indian management.
A wonderful bowler he clearly is, with a unique action that is so hard to face, but he's a poor athlete and has been shown up by England's top order, on some admittedly flat pitches, as the series has progressed and has become survival of the fittest.
I dare say a Dale Steyn or Glenn McGrath would still be making things happen at this stage of a high-profile series such as this, but Bumrah looks cooked, as do India.
With two days remaining, England will hope they don't need to bat again, though bowling might be hard work, with Stokes now feeling the pinch himself and Jofra Archer's own workload needing to be managed.
All that brings me round to the idea that England will lean heavily on spinner Liam Dawson in the second innings, especially with conditions starting to come in his favour.
The other factor to consider is that with this series all but done, attention will naturally turn to the winter and the Ashes.
Liam Dawson takes his FIRST Test wicket in eight years! 🏴🙌 pic.twitter.com/mvZH9A8OMM
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) July 23, 2025
Whether Dawson will be on that plane Down Under remains to be seen, but England and Stokes will likely see the second innings here as an opportunity to give Dawson a good bowl and see just what he has to offer against quality opposition in Test cricket.
It would do Dawson plenty of good, too, and Stokes the bowler, along with Archer and Brydon Carse, will no doubt be grateful if one end is locked down with spin in the second dig.
As yet, bookmakers have been painfully slow to price up the top England second-innings bowler market, with only Coral and Ladbrokes obliging at the time of writing.
Those able to take the 4/1 on offer are advised to do so, but I'll leave it off the official staking plan, given many will have to sit this one out.
Preview published at 2145 BST on 25/07/25
Day three betting update
1pt Joe Root to make a first innings century at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Extreme unders on India's first innings runs didn't quite pay off on Thursday, but day two in Manchester was still very much England's day.
Having dismissed India for 358, England rattled along at almost five runs per over as they closed on 225-2, with Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley just falling falling short of centuries.
It would appear this is England's game to lose from here, and the series, and they will want to go big on day three on an Old Trafford surface that looked much better for batting when the sun finally poked through the Manchester clouds in the afternoon.
Jasprit Bumrah was much less threatening than he has been, and as we have seen all through the summer, once that Dukes ball loses its shine and hardness, batting became immeasurably easier.
This particular ball is now 46 overs old, so overnight not out batsmen JOE ROOT and Ollie Pope will be hopeful they can do some damage before India can get their hands on another new Dukes rock.
Root's record at Old Trafford is typically outstanding, averaging 65.93 from 12 Tests, and he has 11 tons and counting in this format against India.
The one area of attack India will look to explore as the match goes on is spin, this surface clearly very dry and one that should assist Ravi Jadeja and Washington Sundar as the game goes on.
That's one reason why I wouldn't completely discount India just yet, but spin has never been an area of concern for Root. In fact, for my money, Root is the best player of spin in world cricket.
Resuming on 11 not out, he looks to have plenty in his favour, and I'm happy to back ROOT TO MAKE A FIRST INNINGS CENTURY with Sky Bet at 11/4.
Preview published at 1955 BST on 24/07/25
Day two betting update
1pt Under 339.5 India first innings runs at 10/3 (bet365)
England bowled pretty well without much luck on day one of the fourth Test in Manchester, and I expect them to be quickly among the wickets when play resumes on Thursday.
There are a few factors in England's favour here. To begin with, captain Ben Stokes will immediately take the new ball in the morning, something he was unable to do on Wednesday evening because of bad light.
With Rishabh Pant unlikely to bat, on Thursday at least, having taken a heavy blow to his foot been forced to retire hurt, India are effectively 264-5.
With a long India tail to come, one which has offered such weak resistance throughout the series, England will be eyeing a quick kill.
Let's not forget, India collapsed from 430-3 to 471 all out and 333-4 to 364 all out in Leeds. And then at Edgbaston and Lord's, things didn't get much better, for all they did at least show fight last week.
The new ball has done the trick all summer, before the Dukes has gone soft and meant that batting has got much easier.
England will go hard in the morning, led by Chris Woakes and Jofra Archer, and there looks to be more than enough in this Old Trafford surface to take wickets in clusters should they enjoy a little more luck than they did on Wednesday.
If that happens, and Archer gets a look at that tail with a relatively new ball, it could be curtains for those to come.
The current India first innings runs line looks too high to me, and I'll be playing unders, with UNDER 339.5 INDIA FIRST INNINGS RUNS worth chancing at 10/3 with bet365.
Preview published at 2025 BST on 23/07/25
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