Richard Mann looks at the state of play ahead of day four at the Oval, where India could be about to take charge.
But for a significant amount of rain falling in South London on Sunday, day four at the Oval will be the final act of what has been the a terrific, hard-fought Test series.
With nine wickets remaining, England require a further 324 runs to win and seal a 3-1 series victory.
But having picked up the wicket of Zak Crawley with what proved the final ball of the day on Saturday, India are overwhelming favourites to win the Test and draw the series, priced around the 4/9 mark.
Given conditions for batting have been challenging throughout the first three days, and that cloud cover and artificial lighting is expected to be in use again on Sunday, England do look up against it.
The hosts were bowled out for 247 in their first innings, despite having at one stage been well set on 109-1, the ball moving prodigiously for India’s seamers.
However, the theme of this summer has been how well the pitches have held up across five days, in many cases getting better late in the games. In the first Test, for example, England hunted down 371 with relative ease at Headingley.
And having ended day three on 50-1, after India had only just finished short of 400 in their second innings, it does appear that this Oval surface is flattening out.
Joe Root, as ever, will be key for England, and his second-innings career average of 46.00 suggests he will be a relatively safe buy in the runs markets.
We’re already with India at even-money, having made our move after day two, so find ourselves in a good position.
As such, I won’t be pressing up again, with another tense finish having a sense of inevitability about it.
In truth, a grandstand finale to cap a memorable few weeks is exactly what this series deserves.
Day three betting update
3pts India to win the fifth Test at evens (General)
The fifth Test continues to move at a fast pace, and it is India who now find themselves in a position of strength after another absorbing day at the Oval on Friday.
England will be kicking themselves, having polished off India's first innings for 224 in the morning session, before racing to 109-1 from only 16 overs at Lunch.
However, an inspired spell of seam and swing bowling from Mohammed Siraj (4-86) turned the match on its head, while there were also four wickets for Prasidh Krishna as England collapsed to 247 all out.
On the first challenging surface of the summer, England's batting was found wanting, and India now hold a 52-run lead having closed on 75-2.
Mohammed Siraj bowls Harry Brook and England are all out for 247, leading India by 23 runs! 🏴 pic.twitter.com/FYbcKOR1f0
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) August 1, 2025
Worse still for England, the weather forecast for Saturday is much better, promising clear skies, while day three might just prove to be the best time to bat. As we have seen all summer, the pitches in England have tended to get better as matches progress.
All that spells danger for England who have already lost Chris Woakes to a dislocated shoulder, and have opted not to select a frontline spinner, instead preferring Jamie Overton who has barely bowled for Surrey in First Class cricket all summer but now finds himself as the third seamer in a three-man attack.
Gut Atkinson, making his own comeback from injury, suddenly has a heavy burden to shoulder, and if India can win the first hour on Saturday, they will take a significant step towards victory and squaring the series.
Atkinson and Josh Tongue will have one burst in the morning, but after that, England have few options, while India have their best two batters of the series so far, Shubman Gill and Ravi Jadeja, still to come.
Yashasvi Jaiswal will resume unbeaten on 51, and England know only too well about his penchant for making big scores, so too Washington Sundar who reeled off a century in the last Test.
India have lots of batting still to come and though kicking myself having been close to backing the tourists at 2/1 after day one, you can only judge on what is in front of you.
Right now, India look a very good bet at even-money, and I expect them to be significantly shorter when I return to this column on Saturday night.
Preview published at 2145 BST on 01/08/25
Day two betting update
0.5pt Jamie Overton top England first innings batsman at 50/1 (bet365)
There are occasions in cricket when the scorecard does not paint a true picture of events. Day one at the Oval was one of those occasions.
In ending the first day on 204-6, the scorecard would suggest India are the team in trouble, with their hopes of drawing the series slipping away, but there is more to this story than what is written in the scorebook.
Having won the toss and elected to bowl first on the greenest pitch of the Test summer, one which appeared a match made in heaven for England's fresh, four-pronged seam attack, the hosts had at one stage reduced India to 101-4, with captain Shubman Gill run out in dramatic fashion.
DISASTER for India 😬
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) July 31, 2025
Gus Atkinson makes no mistake and Shubman Gill is RUN OUT 😱 pic.twitter.com/lZuyrQmCK0
At that point, with the lights on at the Oval and the ball doing plenty, India were staring at 150 all out. However, Karun Nair played diligently for his unbeaten fifty, giving hope that India might yet get close to 300.
On what we've seen so far, that would be a highly respectable first innings score, one which wouldn't be possible had England not sprayed the ball all over South London and conceded 30 extras from that total of 204.
The forecast for Friday is better, though more rain interruptions are possible, and it would take much more sun than is in the forecast to quickly burn off the generous layer of green grass currently sat on the surface.
I'd still expect this pitch to improve as the match goes on, but not significantly so by Friday, which will begin with only 64 overs currently on the clock.
No, batting will still be tough work and England shouldn't find things easy if the likes of Akash Deep can bowl anything near the level we saw when India won the second Test in Birmingham.
As such, I don't think the tourists are terribly priced from here around the 2/1 mark, for all I would still like to see them add another 70 or so before getting too excited about their chances.
It's worth noting that Chris Woakes left the field nursing his shoulder on Thursday, an injury which was later confirmed to be a dislocated shoulder, and it is unlikely that he will bowl again in the match.
That is another positive for India backers, and also means JAMIE OVERTON will move up to number eight in the batting order for England.
Overton is a very good batsman, used by England's white-ball teams as a finisher in the last year or so, and his sole previous Test match appearance in 2022 saw him stroke a brilliant 97 against New Zealand at Headingley after early wickets had fallen.
And with conditions as they are at the Oval, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that England suffer early casualties when they come to bat on Friday.
It will certainly be a challenge for the likes of Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope, meaning someone like Jamie Smith or indeed Overton, both playing on their home ground, might have to perform a rescue act from the lower order.
Smith is priced accordingly in the top England first innings batsman market, for all the 10/1 currently on offer with bet365 is tempting, and I'll instead take a small-stakes swing on Overton with the same firm at 50/1.
Preview published at 2150 BST on 31/07/25
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