Cricket betting tips: Big Bash Challenger preview and best bets for Sydney Sixers versus Brisbane Heat
Sydney Sixers face off with Brisbane Heat on Thursday, with a place in the Big Bash final up for grabs – Richard Mann has bets ranging from 5/1 to 33/1 lined up.
Cricket tips: Big Bash Challenger – Sydney Sixers v Brisbane Heat
2pts Nathan McSweeney top Brisbane Heat batsman at 5/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Nathan McSweeney top Match batsman at 17/2 (General)
0.5pts Brisbane to win by 9 wickets or 81-90 runs at 33/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
0.5pts Brisbane to win by 8 wickets or 71-80 runs at 25/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
0.5pts Brisbane to win by 7 wickets or 61-70 runs at 25/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Sydney Sixers host Brisbane Heat in the Big Bash Challenger on Thursday morning, with a place in Sunday’s final against Perth Scorchers on the line.
Three-time winners of the Big Bash, the Sixers have arguably been the standout team in the competition for the last few years, and they contested another final 12 months ago when just coming up short against the Scorchers.
Unsurprisingly, the Sixers finished in the top two of this year’s regular season, the Scorchers eventually heading the League Table, but there is more to this story than meets the eye.
Sixers’ once peerless batting has looked decidedly shaky of late, with Josh Philippe and Kurtis Patterson struggling for runs, Dan Christian so bad that he’s opted to call time on his fine career at the conclusion of the tournament, and Daniel Hughes, for some reason, spending much of the campaign on the bench.
Smith and Khawaja leave big shoes to fill
Jordan Silk has been excellent, and Hayden Kerr adds depth to the middle order, but it’s a matter of fact that Steve Smith has carried the batting in the last five matches, those being his only appearances for the Sixers this season but still proving enough time to see him make back-to-back hundreds and another half-century.
All told, Smith amassed 346 runs from five innings and his absence on Thursday, and potentially Sunday, leaves the Sixers with a huge hole to fill, one I’m not sure they can.
The bowling remains solid and experienced, but the Heat have played them twice this season, battering 224-5 at the Gabba on New Year’s Day, and then posting 147-6 from only 13 overs three days later before rain saved the Sixers from what looked likely to be another defeat.
Josh Brown x Sixers 💪#BBLFinals #BringTheHEAT #BBL12 pic.twitter.com/IOBrniXvrv
— Brisbane Heat (@HeatBBL) February 1, 2023
The crucial point to make about both of those matches is that neither Usman Khawaja or Marnus Labuschagne played, yet their absence on Thursday due to Australian's upcoming Tour of India has seen the Heat written off in many camps.
In those matches it was Josh Brown and Nathan McSweeney who did most of the scoring, with the former making a blistering 62 in the first game, and the latter posting 84 and a brisk 28 not out.
McSweeney has been very unlucky to find himself on the sidelines since, Khawaja, Labuschagne and Matt Renshaw returning from international duty to help power the Heat to this stage of the competition having appeared at one stage to be struggling badly.
But I’d suggest that Heat had turned a corner long before those big names returned, with Brown, McSweeney and exciting left-arm paceman Spencer Johnson finally hinting at a brighter future for the club.
Have Heat turned a corner?
Before then, the Heat seemed obsessed with toughening up and being the team that stuck their chests out and weren’t afraid to go looking for a fight. Now, with new blood coming into the changing rooms and Khawaja’s more relaxed style of leadership encouraging skills over brawn, the Heat are playing some of their best cricket in years.
They will certainly miss Khawaja on Thursday – his batting has been outstanding in the last two matches – and Renshaw leaves a notable hole, too, but McSweeney looks a very capable of replacement for Labuschagne and Max Bryant’s best can take down anybody.
On paper at least, the Heat losing those players would appear to make it advantage Sixers, but I’m not convinced it’s that clear cut, and they might just have the talent to cover for those losses. Whether the Sixers can replace Smith’s runs, or indeed of James Vince's contributions before him, might be a more important question.
The one advantage the Sixers do hold is their experience of winning these big matches at the latter stages of the Big Bash, but the Heat have at least come out on the right side of some tight finishes in the last few weeks, suggesting that is another corner they have managed to turn.
I give the Heat a puncher’s chance here, for all Khawaja and Renshaw are big losses, and 13/8 probably represents a shade of value given how well they have fared against the Sixers already this term.
However, for those who bet with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, I’d advise taking advantage of their Margin market which offers some big prices about the outcome of the match.
Instead of wading in at 13/8, I’m going to take a more speculative approach and back HEAT TO WIN BY 9 WICKETS OR 81-90 RUNS at 33/1, HEAT TO WIN BY 8 WICKETS OR 71-80 RUNS at 25/1, and HEAT TO WIN BY 7 WICKETS OR 61-70 RUNS at 25/1– split stakes on all three outcomes.
Seven wickets was the margin of victory the Heat claimed over Melbourne Renegades in the Knockout on Sunday, and if they are to cause another upset, I think they’ll need to score big through their top order which features McSweeney, Brown and Warwickshire’s Sam Hain.
I won’t be going mad on stakes with that one but do think it presents the best value angle into the outright market.
All eyes on exciting McSweeney
I make no apologies for taking a much firmer stance with NATHAN MCSWEENEY, someone I’ve already mentioned throughout this piece and a player I have extremely high hopes for.
We haven’t seen much of McSweeney this season, three games all told, but that was enough game time for him to make two telling contributions – against this very opposition – and his 84 was a terrific knock that highlighted what a big future the 23-year-old has.
When Brown was hot and hitting boundaries for fun in that match, McSweeney rotated the strike with all the poise of an experienced hand, and then himself exploded once Brown had departed. It was a terrific innings, with power down the ground accompanied by shots square of the wicket, excellent placement, and a lofted cover drive that would have made AB de Villiers sit up and take notice.
We’re only betting on a single match here, so it’s important not to go overboard, but not only is McSweeney’s Big Bash form impressive, he came into the tournament on the back of his maiden First-Class century and two more fifties in the Sheffield Shield.
This is a young man very much on the up, and I think we might be talking about a batsman who ends up playing a considerable amount of international cricket for Australia in the next few years. I think he’s that good.
I’m happy to put my money where my mouth is and will be backing McSweeney for top Brisbane Heat batsman at 5/1, and for top Match batsman at 17/2.
Preview posted at 1300 GMT on 01/02/2023
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