Richard Mann tipped a 14/1 winner in the first Test between Australia and South Africa last week – he has 66/1 and 33/1 selections for the Boxing Day Test at the MCG.
Cricket tips: Australia v South Africa second Test
1pt Keshav Maharaj top South Africa first-innings batsman at 33/1 (General)
1pt Kagiso Rabada top South Africa first-innings batsman at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
The Boxing Day Test at the MCG is always one of the great sporting spectacles, and with this being the first played in Melbourne since the passing of local hero Shane Warne, we can expect an emotionally-charged few days on and off the pitch.
On the pitch, Australia are expected to maintain their dominance over a visiting South Africa side that was defeated inside two days at the Gabba last week, though the pitch in Brisbane was a significant challenge for batsmen on both sides, so green was the surface.
In the end, Australia won by six wickets having lost four quick wickets in a victory target of only 34, and South Africa captain Dean Elgar was even brazen enough to suggest the game might have been stopped had conditions deteriorated further.
It wasn’t quite that bad, as Travis Head demonstrated, and it must be said that Elgar doesn’t appear to have grasped the concept of losing with grace just yet. His comments probably say more about the frailties within his own camp and pressure he must be feeling having also lost a marquee Test series in England last summer.
Brittle batting leaves South Africa up against it
Those frailties chiefly concern a woeful batting line-up, the worst to represent the Proteas in the 30 years I have been watching the sport, and their insistence on picking just five recognised batsmen, with their wicket-keeper at number six, followed by five bowlers, is only making matters worse.
Marco Jansen looks a long way from being a Test match number seven right now, and of those above him in the order, only Temba Bavuma is averaging over 40 (41.25) in 2022. Such poor numbers are no recipe for success, particularly when coming up against a fine Australian bowling attack in home conditions.
What it does do is make taking big prices in the top South Africa first-innings batsman market very appealing, and Kyle Verreynne was a 14/1 winner for these pages in the first Test thanks to his fluent 64.
We also have Verreynne onside for top South Africa series batsman, again at 14/1, so with 7/1 the best price available about him this week, I’m happy to cheer him on in the hope he can maintain his strong recent form in the remaining two matches.
However, I still think this week’s market is well worth a stab at, especially with the aforementioned Jansen making little appeal at around the 16/1 mark. Instead, I’m going to look even further down the order and take two at big prices.
Dangerous Maharaj must be respected
First on my list is KESHAV MAHARAJ who I’ve always thought is a capable batsman, if not a little too carefree for his own good sometimes.
Maharaj made a breezy 16 when South Africa were bowled out for 99 in their second innings in Brisbane, and he has the game to make a quickfire 30 or 40 when coming in with lots of catchers behind the bat and plenty of open spaces in the outfield.
In fact, Maharaj has four Test fifties to his name and a best of 84, so he can certainly play, and one of his good days might be enough to win this market if the MCG pitch is as challenging against the new ball as it was in last year’s Ashes Test on this ground.
At 33/1, Maharaj is definitely worth a few quid.
The same can be said for KAGISO RABADA who follows Marahaj in the batting order and was unbeaten in the South Africa first innings last week.
Rabada has always boasted a sound technique and a good eye, but the result of playing so much white-ball and franchise cricket has meant opportunities to work on his batting and develop his skills in First Class cricket have been non-existent.
Still, he has a career best of 47 against New Zealand – made this year – and actually won this market with 36 when South Africa’s top order was again routed by England at Old Trafford last summer. Rabada dug his heels in that day, battling for 72 balls and picking off boundaries when the chance arose.
He might well find himself in a similar position in the second Test and given how Australia has always brought out the red-hot, competitive streak in Rabada, don’t expect him to lay down without a fight.
Rabada bowled his heart out in the second innings last week, taking all four Australian wickets to fall despite having so few runs to play with, and I suspect he’ll be bang up for this, with bat and ball, when hostilities resume on Boxing Day.
This has all the makings of a perfect storm for betting the South African middle to lower order, and as 66/1 shots go, Rabada is far from the worst I’ve seen. He makes the staking plan.
Preview posted at 1915 GMT on 21/12/2022
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