Cricket betting tips and preview: Pakistan and Australia hard to split in T20 World Cup semi-final
Richard Mann previews Thursday's T20 World Cup semi-final between Pakistan and Australia, and has three bets ranging from 50/1 to 16/1.
Cricket tips: Pakistan v Australia, November 11
1pt Josh Hazlewood to be Man of the Match at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Shaheen Afridi to be Man of the Match at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Pat Cummins top Australia batsman at 50/1 (General)
The staggering toss bias in favour of the chaser in Dubai – at the last count, of the 10 games played at this venue in the T20 World Cup, nine have been won by the team batting second – means that betting on Thursday’s semi-final between Australia and Pakistan beforehand is fraught with danger.
It will be a great shame if the toss of a coin decides the outcome of a semi-final that has so much going for it, one contested between Pakistan, the only unbeaten side in the competition, and an Australian outfit that has made great strides in the last few weeks and appears to be peaking just at the right time.
Despite concerns about their batting, David Warner has shown signs in the last few matches that he might just be turning the tide after a poor IPL, while runs for Mitchell Marsh against the West Indies and Glenn Maxwell’s presence in the middle order gives Australia genuine X-factor.
The bowling has always been excellent, but 11 wickets and counting in the tournament for Adam Zampa has seen his stock rise further, while JOSH HAZLEWOOD has been outstanding with both the new and the old ball, and how he fares against Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan in the powerplay could go a long to deciding the outcome of this match.
Make hay with seamers in Man of the Match market
As Chris Woakes demonstrated on this very ground against Australia, Dubai has generally offered new-ball bowlers some assistance and Hazlewood is an excellent operator in such conditions.
Hazlewood’s opening burst in the first match of the Super-12 stage against South Africa won him the Man of the Match award and ultimately decided the fate of that group, and he will once again be a big threat on Thursday.
HAZLEWOOD has taken eight wickets so far in the tournament with an economy rate of under seven, and if you fancy Australia to win the match and progress to the final, you can’t ignore the 16/1 about the New South Wales paceman for Man of the Match honours given how well bowlers, particularly those taking wickets in the powerplay, have been faring in that market throughout.
On what we’ve seen so far, Pakistan would probably be shorter than 5/6 to win the match were it not for the elephant in the room: the huge toss bias in Dubai. Unbeaten in Group 2, a batting order that had previously relied too heavily on Babar and Rizwan has been greatly boosted by impressive power hitting from the veteran Shoaib Malik and Asif Ali.
On balance, Pakistan’s batting does look the stronger, particularly in these conditions, but their bowling is very good, too, with SHAHEEN AFRIDI producing some sparkling new-ball spells already and the likes of Haris Rauf and Imad Wasim also impressing.
I don’t think they are unbeatable – New Zealand pushed them close when trying to defend a small total at Sharjah – but this is clearly a well-balanced Pakistan line-up, boasting experience, flair and, for once, lots of stability.
Afridi too good and too big to ignore
Given I’ve been so keen to play the Man of the Match throughout the tournament – finding 12/1 and 16/1 winners last week – my Pakistan pick to join Hazlewood in the book has to be strike bowler, Afridi.
The 16/1 on offer with Sky Bet for this exceptional talent is way out, given he picked up the gong with a brutal new-ball spell against India on this very ground and has continued to prove a constant threat since with his high pace and ability to move the ball back into the right-handers. That should worry Aaron Finch. Warner, too.
As I’ve said already, bowlers who shape matches in the powerplay are being rewarded at the presentation and in Hazlewood and Afridi, we have two of the best new-ball bowlers in the business in our staking plan.
Having been against Australia since before the competition began, I am surprised they’ve made it this far, given how comprehensively outmatched by England they were and that they came through a group featuring Sri Lanka and South Africa.
Ultimately, net run-rate was Australia’s ticket to the last four, made possible by their skittling of Bangladesh in their penultimate match. Their batting has become braver and more adventurous, but I still have my concerns about it against high-class seam bowling – the like of which Pakistan have in their ranks.
With the chance of some sporting bowling conditions in Dubai, there is the possibility of a perfect storm in the top Australia batsman market if Man of the Match pick Afridi gets on an early roll. In such a scenario, the Australia top order could be in trouble and someone lower down left with the rebuilding job.
Pat to deliver if Australia crumble
Maxwell is the obvious candidate, but he didn’t last long in Dubai when England got the ball moving sideways and at number eight, I’m happy to roll the dice with PAT CUMMINS at 50/1.
By his own high standards, Cummins has been relatively quiet with the ball at this World Cup, but he has produced some very handy contributions with the bat over the last few years in Test cricket and in the IPL for Kolkata Knight Riders.
As demonstrated by his three-ball 12 against England which featured two monster sixes, Cummins hits a really long ball and could quite easily produce a quickfire 30 if required.
There are lots of ifs and buts needed to get on board with this one, but this will be the biggest test Australia’s top order has faced since crumbling against England and I’m happy to throw a few quid at Cummins at 50/1 in the hope he can pick up the pieces.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 09/11/21
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