County Championship betting tips: Division Two preview

The Specsavers County Championship - which starts on Friday - undergoes significant changes to its structure for this season, with the total matches played by each team dropping from 16 to 14.

After two teams were relegated from Division One and only one team promoted from the second tier, there are now eight teams in the top flight and 10 in Division Two.

Division One therefore follows a standard home-and-away league structure with every team playing the other seven twice for a total of 14.

In Division Two, however, each team will play five teams twice and four teams only once to reach the total of 14.

The points system remains unchanged, with 16 points for a win, eight for a tie and five for a draw. Up to eight bonus points are available in the first 110 overs of each first innings, with batting points up to a maximum of five awarded, one for every 50 runs from 200 upwards, and bowling points awarded for three, six and nine wickets.

Durham start their Division Two campaign on minus 48 points after an ECB sanction.

Our preview of Division One was on Tuesday morning and here's our guide to that second division, courtesy of Andy Schooler.

Recommended bets:

2pts Kent to win title at 5/1

1pt e.w. (1/5, 1,2,3) Durham to win title at 28/1

1pt e.w. (1/4 1,2,3,4) Mark Cosgrove to be division’s top runscorer at 18/1

1pt e.w. (1/4 1,2,3,4) Craig Miles to be division’s top wicket-taker at 28/1

Nottinghamshire

Sky Bet odds: 13/8

Last season: 9th, Div 1

Overseas: James Pattinson (Australia, until end of June)

Ins: Ben Kitt

Outs: Will Gidman (Kent), Sam Wood (released)

Squad: Chris Read (capt, wk), Jake Ball, Stuart Broad, Matthew Carter, Anuj Dal, Luke Fletcher, Harry Gurney, Alex Hales, Brett Hutton, Ben Kitt, Jake Libby, Michael Lumb, Tom Moores (wk), Steven Mullaney, Samit Patel, James Pattinson, Billy Root, Greg Smith, Brendan Taylor (wk), Riki Wessels (wk), Luke Wood

Verdict:

Firm favourites to top the division; glance over their squad and it’s easy to see why. They have a host of players with international experience plus a number of hardened county pros. Captain Chris Read is very much in the latter category these days but leads, bats and keeps to a high standard, while opener Steven Mullaney looks like he could really blossom at this level after a 1,000-run season in last year’s relegation campaign.

Jake Ball, Harry Gurney, Alex Hales and Michael Lumb won’t always be away with England but all look likely to miss significant chunks of the season. Ball took 49 wickets last year and will be a major loss to the attack if he holds down a Test and ODI place for his country – he’s already been told he won’t play in the early rounds of the championship.

It is also worth remembering this is virtually the same squad which won just one game in Division One last season, losing nine. Given the negatives, I’d be wary of piling into Notts at a short price.

Sussex

Sky Bet odds: 7/2

Last season: 4th

Overseas: Vernon Philander (South Africa, until mid-June)

Ins: Laurie Evans (Warwickshire), Stiaan van Zyl (South Africa, Kolpak), David Wiese (South Africa, Kolpak)

Outs: Lewis Hatchett (retired), Craig Cachopa (released), Flynn Hudson-Prentice (released)

Squad: Luke Wright (capt), Jofra Archer, Will Beer, Danny Briggs, Ben Brown (wk), Laurie Evans, Harry Finch, George Garton, Chris Jordan, Ed Joyce, Matt Machan, Steve Magoffin, Chris Nash, Vernon Philander, Delray Rawlins, Ollie Robinson, Abidine Sakande, Phil Salt, Ajmal Shahzad, Stiaan van Zyl, Luke Wells, Stuart Whittingham, David Wiese

Verdict:

The batting looks strong with Chris Nash and Ed Joyce having both made more than 1,000 runs last season, while Luke Wells and Ben Brown chipped in with 800-plus apiece. However, Joyce is now also employed by Ireland and won’t play as regularly this term.

To counter-balance that, after a strong first-class season in his native South Africa, Kolpak signing Stiaan van Zyl should add even more depth to that department but the concern is have Sussex got enough wickets in them?

Steve Magoffin was very much the spearhead last term and if he takes 62 wickets again, the south-coast county look sure to be in the promotion mix. However, there was a definite lack of back-up.

Overseas signing Vernon Philander has potential but he’s disappointed too often in his previous county spells. David Wiese, a second Kolpak, could chip in here, while Sussex will hope for more from spinner Danny Briggs and a few more appearances from England’s Chris Jordan, although the ECB will have a big say in that. He managed only five championship games last season. Look like they will be hard to beat and should go close.

Kent

Sky Bet odds: 5/1

Last season: Runners-up

Overseas: TBC

Ins: Will Gidman (Nottinghamshire), Joe Weatherley (Hampshire, loan)

Outs: Sam Weller (released), David Griffiths (released), Fabian Cowdrey (released)

Squad: Sam Northeast (capt), Adam Ball, Daniel Bell-Drummond, Hugh Bernard, Sam Billings (wk), Alex Blake, Mitchell Claydon, Matt Coles, Zak Crawley, Joe Denly, Sean Dickson, Will Gidman, Calum Haggett, Charlie Hartley, Matt Hunn, Callum Jackson (wk), Imran Qayyum, Adam Riley, Adam Rouse (wk), Darren Stevens, Ivan Thomas, James Tredwell, Joe Weatherley

Verdict:

Finished second last season but that wasn’t enough in a year which saw only the champions promoted. After three big wins (in succession) in the second half of the campaign, Kent were very much in the title hunt until a shock defeat to Northants late on cost them dearly and denied them a winner-takes-all showdown in the final round against Essex.

Still, it was a fine 2016 for the men from Canterbury and they look well set for another title bid. Sam Northeast made 1,337 runs – the second best in the division – and was well supported by opener Daniel Bell-Drummond, who looks to be improving with every passing year.

Like Bell-Drummond, Joe Denly and the veteran Darren Stevens both made more than 700 runs to provide Northeast with decent support on the batting front, while the latter continues to defy the years with the ball too – he took 37 wickets in 2016, the same number as Matt Coles, while Mitchell Claydon was just two shy of a half-century.

Essentially this is a strong all-round team and one which could well be improved by the appointment of Jason Gillespie to the coaching staff – it is not long since he led Yorkshire to two Division One titles. It may just be a short-term deal but the Aussie looks sure to make his presence felt, as will Allan Donald when he arrives later in the year. There’s also still an overseas player slot open. Regardless of whether that’s filled or not, Kent look worthy of serious consideration.

Worcestershire

Sky Bet odds: 8/1

Last season: 3rd

Overseas: John Hastings (Australia)

Ins: None

Outs: Chris Russell (released)

Squad: Joe Leach (capt), Moeen Ali, Ed Barnard, Joe Clarke (wk), Ben Cox (wk), Brett D’Oliveira, Tom Fell (wk), John Hastings, Alex Hepburn, Alex Kerverzee, Tom Kohler-Cadmore, Daryl Mitchell, Charlie Morris, George Rhodes, Jack Shantry, Josh Tongue, Ben Twohig, Ollie Westbury, Ross Whiteley

Verdict:

Worcestershire’s strong record in Division Two over the years warrants respect and means they are usually worth a second glance when it comes to the betting.

Daryl Mitchell twice led them to promotion but he’s been replaced as captain this season by Joe Leach, last season’s leading wicket-taker in the division. Mitchell’s public unhappiness over that decision could be an awkward dynamic at New Road this season.

Whether the captaincy affects Leach’s work with the ball must be open to question but the signing of Aussie John Hastings appears to have been made with that concern in mind – with his experience both in Sheffield Shield and in England with Durham, he looks sure to offer a big threat to Division Two’s batsmen.

With the bat, Joe Clarke was by far the leading performer last season and Worcestershire will need some of their younger players to improve if they are to launch a genuine title challenge. One boost on that front is the return of Tom Fell after he missed half of the 2016 season. He hit the four-figure runs mark in 2015 and could be one to follow.

Gloucestershire

Sky Bet odds: 14/1

Last season: 6th

Overseas: Cameron Bancroft (Australia)

Ins: Phil Mustard (Durham)

Outs: Hamish Marshall (released), Tom Hampton (released)

Squad: Gareth Roderick (capt, wk), Cameron Bancroft (wk), Ian Cockbain, Chris Dent (wk), Brandon Gilmour, Patrick Grieshaber (wk), Miles Hammond, George Hankins, Benny Howell, Chris Liddle, Craig Miles, Phil Mustard (wk), Kieran Noema-Barnett, Liam Norwell, David Payne, Tom Smith, Will Tavare, Jack Taylor, Matt Taylor, Graeme van Buuren

Verdict:

Plenty of promise in the bowling attack where Craig Miles could be one to watch in 2017. He took 52 wickets last season and is still only 22. He was ably supported by David Payne and Liam Norwell, both of whom are only in their mid-20s and continue to improve. 

The concern would be on the batting front. Hamish Marshall enjoyed another 1,000-run season last year but the reliable New Zealander has headed home, while Aussie Michael Klinger will only play limited-overs cricket this term. Those two leave significant holes in the batting order and a lot – perhaps a little too much - now seems to rely on Chris Dent. 

It would appear they will do well to replicate last year’s 44-point batting haul, the third-best in the division. The club hopes overseas signing Cameron Bancroft will help fill the void but his spell at Bristol last season was hardly a roaring success. If the attack does fire potently, Gloucester will spring a surprise or two but asking them to challenge for promotion could be too much.

Leicestershire

Sky Bet odds: 14/1

Last season: 7th

Overseas: Clint McKay (Australia)

Ins: Richard Jones (Warwickshire), Gavin Griffiths (Lancashire), Callum Parkinson (Derbyshire), James Burke (Surrey, loan), Colin Ackermann

Outs: Rob Taylor (released), Atif Sheikh (released), Ollie Freckingham (released), Jigar Naik (released), Michael Burgess (released)

Squad: Mark Cosgrove (capt), Colin Ackermann, Aadil Ali, James Burke, Zak Chappell, Harry Dearden, Cameron Delport, Neil Dexter, Ned Eckersley (wk), Will Fazakerley, Gavin Griffiths, Lewis Hill (wk), Paul Horton, Richard Jones, Dieter Klein, Clint McKay, Kevin O’Brien, Callum Parkinson, Mark Pettini, Ben Raine, Angus Robson, Rob Sayer, Charlie Shreck, Jamie Sykes, Tom Wells, Wayne White

This preview was written ahead of Leicestershire being deducted 16 points after incurring five fixed penalty breaches within the space of 12 months.

Verdict:

It’s been a while since Leicestershire were truly able to compete with Division Two’s best sides but for much of 2016 they managed to do that before fading away to finish seventh.

If they can take the positive aspects from that campaign then they could well finish higher this time around, although a change in the coaching department will concern some. The well-respected Andrew McDonald ended his contract a year early to return to Australia and Pierre de Bruyn has stepped up from second-team duties. 

He’ll expect much from his foreign contingent – Clint McKay was far and away their most dangerous bowler in 2016 (he finished with 56 wickets), while opener Mark Cosgrove again delivered on his reputation as a major run-gatherer at this level, scoring almost 1,300 of them.

South African Colin Ackermann looks a strong signing to bolster the batting – he finished top of the runcharts in this winter’s Sunfoil Series in his homeland. The experienced Neil Dexter and Paul Horton help form what looks a decent batting line-up and if the Foxes can find some better support for McKay then they have the potential to be dangerous dark horses.

Northamptonshire

Sky Bet odds: 14/1

Last season: 5th

Overseas: Rory Kleinveldt

Ins: Nathan Buck (Lancashire), Max Holden (Middlesex, loan)

Outs: Olly Stone (Warwickshire)

Squad: Alex Wakely (capt), Muhammad Azharullah, Chad Barrett, Nathan Buck, Josh Cobb, Steven Crook, Ben Duckett (wk), Richard Gleeson, Max Holden, Rob Keogh, Rory Kleinveldt, Richard Levi, George Munsey, David Murphy (wk), Rob Newton, Adam Rossington (wk), Ben Sanderson, Sean Terry, Graeme White, Saif Zaib

Verdict:

Fifth last season and T20 Blast champions (for the second time in four years), Northants again look better equipped to challenge for silverware in the shorter formats of the game.

Ben Duckett played a huge part in holding their batting together last term. He finished the season as Division Two’s leading runscorer, a feat which also caught the eye of the England selectors – he has since played four Tests and will remain on the radar once the Three Lions return to five-day cricket in July. Losing Duckett for any significant period would be a big loss.

On the bowling front, Northants were also heavily reliant on one man, Ben Sanderson taking 55 wickets, and only rock-bottom Derbyshire won fewer bowling bonus points.

Nathan Buck is an interesting signing who will hope to revive a career which slumped after a high-profile move to Lancashire. He’ll need to finally turn his potential into wickets but even if he does, it’s easy to see the limited-overs competitions becoming the priority again at Wantage Road.

Glamorgan

Sky Bet odds: 20/1

Last season: 8th

Overseas: Jacques Rudolph (South Africa)

Ins: None

Outs: James Kettleborough (released), Dew Penrhyn Jones (released), Mark Wallace (retired)

Squad: Jacques Rudolph (capt), William Bragg (wk), Kieran Bull, Lukas Carey, Kiran Carlson, Chris Cooke (wk), Aneurin Donald, Cameron Herring (wk), Michael Hogan, Colin Ingram, Jeremy Lawlor, David Lloyd, Craig Meschede, Owen Morgan, Jack Murphy, Andrew Salter, Nick Selman, Ruaidhri Smith, Tom Smith, Timm van der Gugten, Graham Wagg

Verdict:

No side lost more games in Division Two last season than Glamorgan and a lack of new signings suggests another season of struggle is on the cards in south Wales. Experienced wicketkeeper-batsman Mark Wallace has now retired too and it is the batting which is the reason for most concern.

Glamorgan will hope the return of Chris Cooke and Colin Ingram, both of whom missed big parts of last season, will be ‘like new signings’ but even still they will need some of their young guns to fire in a big way if they are to challenge at the top end of the table. On that front, there are at least some good signs with attacking batsman Aneurin Donald having caught the eye last season when he was just 17 runs shy of 1,000 in the championship.

When it comes to the bowling, things look much better – only champions Essex earned more bowling bonus points in 2016. Michael Hogan remains a real threat at this level. His nagging line and length bagged him 49 wickets last term at an economy rate of just 2.57, Timm van der Gugten claimed seven more victims and experienced Graham Wagg collected 37. That’s a decent foundation from which to build but the batting looks too light for Glamorgan to warrant support.

Durham

Sky Bet odds: 28/1

Last season: 4th, Div 1

Overseas: Stephen Cook (South Africa, first half of season), Tom Latham (New Zealand, second half of season)

Ins: Cameron Steel

Outs: Mark Stoneman (Surrey), Scott Borthwick (Surrey), Asher Hart (Hampshire), Phil Mustard (Gloucestershire), Jamie Harrison (released), Gurman Randhawa (released), Calum MacLeod (released)

Squad: Paul Collingwood (capt), Usman Arshad, Jack Burnham, Brydon Carse, Graham Clark, Stephen Cook, Josh Coughlin, Paul Coughlin, Adam Hickey, Keaton Jennings, Tom Latham (wk), Gavin Main, Barry McCarthy, Graham Onions, Stuart Poynter (wk), Ryan Pringle, Michael Richardson (wk), Chris Rushworth, Cameron Steel, Ben Stokes, James Weighell, Mark Wood

Verdict:

What to make of county cricket’s fourth-best side in 2016 which starts 2017 in Division Two with a 48-point deduction? Expect results (if the north-east weather holds) is the verdict.

Durham’s bowling attack looks arguably the best in the second tier with Graham Onions and Chris Rushworth virtually guaranteeing wickets, while the same can be said of Mark Wood - when he’s not with England. He should at least play a few games for his county given he starts the season on the comeback trail following injury. Youngster James Weighell is also worth a mention - he has the potential to star if he can hold down a place in the side.

The batting, however, has weakened since last season with the club’s financial problems which brought about the points penalty also seeing Mark Stoneman and Scott Borthwick move on. Both made more than 1,000 runs last season. Overseas players Stephen Cook (first half) and Tom Latham (second) have been captured to help fill that gap and both look shrewd signings to join Keaton Jennings, the only man in county cricket who scored more than 1,500 runs in 2016.

If others step up to the plate, Paul Collingwood’s side will be far from the also-rans that many have them down to be. It is worth noting that Durham finished 76 points ahead of Notts – favourites in Division Two this season – last term. In what isn’t the strongest division, they certainly have each-way potential.

Derbyshire

Sky Bet odds: 28/1

Last season: 9th

Overseas: Jeevan Mendis (Sri Lanka, until June), Imran Tahir (South Africa, after Champions Trophy)

Ins: Gary Wilson (Surrey), Luis Reece (Lancashire), Hardus Viljoen (South Africa, Kolpak), Daryn Smit

Outs: Callum Parkinson (Leicestershire), Chesney Hughes (released), Wes Durston (released), Harry White (released), Neil Broom (released)

Squad: Billy Godleman (capt), Greg Cork, Ben Cotton, Matt Critchley, Will Davis, Rob Hemmings, Matt Henry, Harvey Hosein (wk), Alex Hughes, Charlie Macdonell, Wayne Madsen, Jeevan Mendis, Tom Milnes, Tony Palladino, Luis Reece, Ben Slater, Daryn Smith, Imran Tahir, Tom Taylor, Shiv Thakor, Hardus Viljoen, Gary Wilson (wk), Tom Wood

Verdict:

Derbyshire were the only side in county cricket not to win a Championship match in 2016 which shows the size of the task which lies ahead.

They have acted to shake things up, it has to be said. Club legend Kim Barnett is now in charge of team affairs and they have shuffled the playing pack too. Gary Wilson arrives from Surrey to add experience but the most eye-catching signing looks to be South African fast bowler Hardus Viljoen on a Kolpak deal. 370 first-class wickets at 26.53 apiece are stats which will please Derby’s long-suffering fans.

The ‘genuine’ overseas picks are also encouraging – Sri Lankan Jeevan Mendis in the early part of the season and South Africa’s Imran Tahir after the Champions Trophy. Both look likely to baffle some of the division’s batsmen with their leg spin.

It was a lack of wicket-taking ability which really hurt them last season – only five of 16 matches were actually lost which immediately tells you the batting was not a complete disaster; indeed Wayne Madsen’s 1,292-run haul was the third-best in the division.

Should improve on last season, although it’s unlikely to be enough for them to be top-half contenders.

Conclusion

At 5/1, last year’s runners-up Kent get the nod to go one better in 2017. After just a single win last season, favourites Notts can be taken on and the south-east county look equipped to challenge again with a well-rounded squad and significant additions to their coaching set-up.

The bookies may also have paid too much attention to Durham’s points deduction. Their rivals all begin with a two-win start on them but that doesn’t mean that last season’s fourth-best county cannot claim a place in the top three. With a very strong bowling attack and county cricket’s most prolific batsman in their ranks, they can produce a profit for each-way backers.

In the top runscorer market, Leicestershire’s consistent opener Mark Cosgrove looks interesting at 18/1. He may not be the most athletic of cricketers but has enjoyed back-to-back 1,000-run seasons at Grace Road and also achieved that feat in 2010 when with Glamorgan.

He averaged over 52 during his time in south Wales and last season that figure was above 49 as he finished fourth in Division Two’s run charts – less than 60 runs from top spot. At 18/1, he’s worth a shot.

On the bowling side, Gloucestershire youngster Craig Miles looks like he could well improve on his 52-wicket haul of last term. Of the players who took 25 wickets or more, only Essex’s Graham Napier had a better strike rate than Miles’ 43.9 balls per wicket.

His wicket tally was just four shy of securing a place in this market last season, something he would surely have achieved had he played all 16, rather than 13, of his side’s games.

With improvement expected after a full winter working with the Gloucester coaches (as opposed to having his time split with the ECB at Loughborough), 28/1 looks a good each-way price.

 · Don't forget to visit the site again on Tuesday morning for Dave Tickner's guide to the new Division One campaign.

Posted at 0730 BST on 03/04/17.