Champions Trophy final betting tips: India v Pakistan preview

Recommended bets: Champions Trophy final

2pts Pakistan to beat India at 2/1 - bowling attack can trouble India, whose middle order looks undercooked

1pt Junaid Khan to be top Pakistan bowler at 9/2 - 7 wickets in last 3 games; main rival struggled v India last time out

Click here for our transparent tipping record.

“Pakistan possess an attack capable of spiking England’s guns”.

So wrote my colleague Dave Tickner ahead of the semi-finals and, at 5/2, the Pakistanis duly delivered for him.

The question is can they now repeat the trick in Sunday's final against an India team who have been piling on the runs and start the contest as firm favourites?

Based on what we’ve seen in their past three games, you have to believe they have a fair chance.

Their bowling attack has sparkled, blunting England’s renowned batting line-up (the hosts made just 211 on Wednesday) and also restricting South Africa to 219. Keep India below 250 and they are bang in business.

Hasan Ali has been the star. He’s the leading wicket-taker in the tournament thus far with 10, nine coming in those last three games.

Not only have wickets been claimed, but Hasan has also been miserly – between them England, Sri Lanka and South Africa have managed to send him for only 3.64 runs per over.

He’s been ably supported by spearhead left-armer Junaid Khan, who has taken seven wickets in the three-match sample having missed their opener, and Mohammad Hafeez, whose ability to tie teams down in those tricky middle overs has been proven once again.

Even Mohammad Amir isn’t assured of his place in the side. Despite declaring himself fit for the final having missed the last-four success, Rumman Raees did such a fine job in the semis that we can’t be sure who will be on the teamsheet come the toss and that shows exactly how strong Pakistan are with the ball.

Of course, India’s strength is with the bat but if Pakistan can get through their bang-in-form top three, you have to wonder how the rest will perform given they’ve had very little to do in the past fortnight.

Three of their four games have seen only the top four bat; this is surely where Pakistan will have to win the game.

Getting past Rohit Sharma, Shikhar Dhawan and Virat Kohli may take some doing, of course – the trio all feature in the top five of the tournament runscoring charts – but if any attack can do it then surely it is Pakistan’s.

The problem with that statement, at least to some extent, is that Pakistan have already tried and failed – they were hammered by 124 runs in the group stage.

Yet Pakistan have rejigged the side since then. Junaid got his chance following an injury to Wahab Riaz, who was taken to the cleaners by the Indians earlier this month.

And on the batting side, opener Fakhar Zaman came in and has since made scores of 31, 50 and 57.

Confidence has undoubtedly soared in the past three matches and if that mindset can be kept at The Oval on Sunday then India will need to be on their guard.

I say if because India’s tournament record against their arch-rivals is highly impressive. That group victory was their 12th in 15 World Cup, Champions Trophy and World T20 matches (also one tie) and so there’s certainly the potential for mental baggage to be brought along.

But I feel that is factored into the price with Pakistan on offer at 2/1 and they look worth chancing for the second knockout game running.

There’s a real echo of Pakistan’s World T20 success of 2009 England in their campaign thus far and they continue to be under-rated.

In the sub-markets, the aforementioned Junaid looks the man for Pakistan top bowler.

Hasan is as short as 9/4 here after his recent heroics but he took some serious tap in the group-stage contest against the Indians, taking one for 70 in his 10 overs.

With his seven wickets in the past three games, Junaid is the obvious alternative and at 9/2 he has to be the bet.

He isn’t scarred from that encounter having not played at Edgbaston and in fact can bring in some happy memories of facing India, albeit a while ago. He averages 20.50 against them, as opposed to 28.21 in all one-day internationals.

I’ll take the 9/2 with Betfair, who will apply dead-heat rules if two or more players end up in a tie on the wickets front. It’s worth noting that in such a tie some firms will look at who has conceded the fewest runs to find a winner but with Junaid not as tight economically as main rival Hasan, I want to tie on side too.

Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports 2 (the action starts at 1030 BST)

Posted at 1530 BST on 16/06/17.