ICC Champions Trophy betting tips: Outright preview
Dave Tickner fancies India to retain the ICC Champions Trophy - and has a way to enhance their price to 14/1.
Recommended bets: ICC Champions Trophy outright
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The Champions Trophy may not be the World Cup, but it’s a fantastic tournament that, unlike its big brother, never outstays its welcome. Fifteen matches in 18 days, with minimal margin for error, crucial matches from day one and few, if any, dead rubbers.
Realistically, no side can afford to lose more than one of their three group games and hope to progress and, with only the top eight sides in the world here, there are no freebies on offer in the first round.
The eight are split into two groups of four, with the top two from each progressing to the semi-finals. The bookies’ odds suggest that Group A is tougher, where England, Australia and New Zealand are joined by Bangladesh, with South Africa and India firmly favoured by the layers to progress at Pakistan and Sri Lanka’s expense in the other pool.
Here’s our team-by-team guide with betting verdict at the bottom. Our top batsman and bowler picks are available here.
Group A
Australia
Squad: Steve Smith (c), David Warner, Pat Cummins, Aaron Finch, John Hastings, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Moises Henriques, Chris Lynn, Glenn Maxwell, James Pattinson, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade (wk), Adam Zampa
Fixtures:
June 2: New Zealand, Edgbaston, 1030 BST
June 5: Bangladesh, The Oval, 1330 BST
June 10: England, Edgbaston, 1030 BST
Pros: Current world champions, two-time winners of this event, and reliably consistent performers in the major tournaments. Batsmen and bowlers prominent in the rankings, with David Warner arguably the best white-ball batsman in the world on current form – he’s averaged north of 67 over the last year at better than a run a ball. Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood are top-class one-day bowlers, four all-rounders balance the squad while Chris Lynn brings x-factor after his outrageous exploits in domestic T20 cricket. There is no better striker of a cricket ball in world cricket right now.
Cons: Spin options not as strong as others, although Adam Zampa is an exciting talent and in England in June with Bangladesh the only day-night game for the Aussies, it’s debatable how significant that is. Starc, John Hastings and Lynn are all on their way back from injuries, key man Glenn Maxwell is out of form, while James Faulkner - man of the match in the 2015 World Cup final – has dropped out of contention altogether.
Bangladesh
Squad: Mashrafe Mortaza (c), Tamim Iqbal, Somya Sarkar, Imrul Kayes, Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), Shakib Al Hasan, Mahmudullah, Sabbir Rahman, Mosaddek Hossain, Mehidy Hasan, Sunzamul Islam, Mustafizur Rahman, Taskin Ahmed, Rubel Hossain, Shafiul Islam.
Fixtures:
June 1: England, The Oval, 1030 BST
June 5: Australia, The Oval, 1330 BST
June 9: New Zealand, Cardiff, 1030 BST
Pros: Unquestionably the strongest side Bangladesh have ever put together, with Shakib Al Hasan an elite all-rounder and Tamim Iqbal at last starting to deliver consistently on the rich promise he has shown for almost a decade now. Mustafizur Rahman is still only 21 and already one of the best white-ball pacemen in the world game. Bangladesh are currently ranked sixth by the ICC and that’s on merit; they are currently a better side than Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Cons: England in June is not the place where Bangladesh would choose to play a major tournament, a setback exacerbated by finding themselves in a group with three sides that absolutely would. A lot rests on Mustafizur and experienced captain Mortaza with spin likely to be secondary. They are a coming side in this format, and it’s unfortunate for them that the next two major 50-over tournaments take place in England.
England
Squad: Eoin Morgan (c), Moeen Ali, Jonny Bairstow (wk), Jake Ball, Sam Billings (wk), Jos Buttler (wk), Alex Hales, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, David Willey, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Fixtures:
June 1: Bangladesh, The Oval, 1030 BST
June 6: New Zealand, Cardiff, 1030 BST
June 10: Australia, Edgbaston, 1030 BST
Pros: A side unrecognisable from the out-of-touch, disorganised, clueless rabble that crashed out of the World Cup at the first hurdle. Eoin Morgan has led a quiet revolution, and England – with bat at least – are a side transformed. They have won 63 per cent of their ODIs since the World Cup, and scored more than 300 runs 20 times in 43 matches. At full strength they bat all the way down with the likes of Adil Rashid or Liam Plunkett possible number 11s and as such feel free to continue blazing away from almost any situation. In a far better place now than in either of the two Champions Trophies they’ve hosted - and they got to the final on both of those occasions.
Cons: The bowling remains a worry. It’s partly a corollary of the fearsome numbers put up by the batsmen, but they continue to ship alarming numbers of runs and can never truly feel safe even with 350 on the board. Spin bowling is a clear weakness, while Ben Stokes’ knee injury is a significant worry. He will play as a batsman if necessary, but as an all-rounder he balances the side beautifully. Home advantage slightly nullified by being the only side to play a group game at all three venues. Tough group makes short odds prohibitive, and they are still yet to win any global 50-over title.
New Zealand
Squad: Kane Williamson (c), Corey Anderson, Trent Boult, Neil Broom, Colin de Grandhomme, Martin Guptill, Tom Latham, Mitchell McClenaghan, Adam Milne, Jimmy Neesham, Jeetan Patel, Luke Ronchi (wk), Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Ross Taylor.
Fixtures:
June 2: Australia, Edgbaston, 1030 BST
June 6: England, Cardiff, 1030 BST
June 9: Bangladesh, Cardiff, 1030 BST
Pros: Perennial overachievers at major tournaments and squad has a nice rounded look to it. As scoring rates rocket, wicket-taking bowlers become more important than run-saving ones, New Zealand look well set with Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Adam Milne. Kane Williamson is an all-format great, Ross Taylor adds experience, Tom Latham is in the form of his life and Martin Guptill remains a formidably dangerous hitter at the top of the order. All-rounder options add balance, while Jeetan Patel’s return to the international fold brings with it vast experience of English conditions.
Cons: Always go well at major tournaments, but without getting over the finish line. Brutal draw has left them not only in the hardest group, but also facing Australia and England in their first two games. There are no freebies in this tournament and everyone must hit the ground running, but it’s particularly true for the Black Caps.
Group B
India
Squad: Virat Kohli (c), Shikhar Dhawan, Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, MS Dhoni (wk), Yuvraj Singh, Kedar Yadav, Hardik Pandya, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammad Shami, Umesh Yadav, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Jasprit Bumrah, Dinesh Karthik.
Fixtures:
June 4: Pakistan, Edgbaston, 1030 BST
June 8: Sri Lanka, The Oval, 1030 BST
June 11: South Africa: The Oval, 1030 BST
Pros: Defending champions with a fantastic squad. Bags of experience in the batting, and a more rounded attack than has often been the case thanks to genuinely high-quality pace options in Mohammad Shami, Umesh Yadav and Bhuvi Kumar and the death-bowling, blockhole-seeking wiles of Jasprit Bumrah. Hardik Pandya, Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja provide genuine all-round options, while Virat Kohli is already assured of a place among the ODI all-time greats having plundered almost 8,000 runs and 27 centuries before his 29 birthday.
Cons: Very few on the field, but off the field it’s been a shambles. A downright shoddy build-up to the tournament, with the ever-belligerent BCCI throwing their weight about and threatening to boycott the tournament way beyond the supposed April 25 squad-naming deadline. Coach Anil Kumble has been forced to reapply for his job amidst reports of a rift with Kohli, who himself comes into the tournament on the back of a wretched Test series against Australia and a dreadful IPL season.
Pakistan
Squad: Sarfraz Ahmed (c/wk), Azhar Ali, Ahmed Shehzad, Mohammad Hafeez, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Fakhar Zaman, Imad Wasim, Hasan Ali, Fahim Ashraf, Wahab Riaz, Mohammad Amir, Junaid Khan, Shadab Khan, Haris Sohail
Fixtures:
June 4: India, Edgbaston, 1030 BST
June 7: South Africa, Edgbaston, 1330 BST
June 12: Sri Lanka, Cardiff, 1030 BST
Pros: Mercurial, unpredictable, all the clichés. Always dangerous on their day. Babar Azam is one of the finest young batsmen in the game, and has five centuries in his last 11 ODIs to lift his average in this format to a dizzy 55. On the bowling front there’s teenage leg-spinner Shadab Khan who has made an eye-catching start to international white-ball cricket with five wickets in his first three ODIs and 10 in his first four T20s. Overall the squad has a pleasing blend of youth and experience with old hands Mohammad Hafeez and Shoaib Malik still around and a clutch of players - Sarfraz Ahmed, Azhar Ali, Wahab Riaz, Junaid Khan - in their late 20s/early 30s peak.
Cons: Upheaval and controversy is rarely far and away with Pakistan and arrived on cue when Umar Akmal got the boot from the squad after failing fitness tests. Only qualified by the tightest of margins, a couple of ranking points clear of ninth-placed West Indies when the music stopped in September 2015, and remain the lowest-ranked team in the tournament. Since the 2015 World Cup they have won only six and lost 15 of 21 games against the other seven qualifiers, including a 4-1 series defeat here in 2016.
South Africa
Squad: AB de Villiers (c), Hashim Amla, Quinton de Kock (wk), Faf du Plessis, JP Duminy, David Miller, Chris Morris, Wayne Parnell, Andile Phehlukwayo, Kagiso Rabada, Imran Tahir, Dwaine Pretorius, Keshav Maharaj, Farhaan Behardien, Morne Morkel.
Fixtures:
June 3: Sri Lanka, The Oval, 1030 BST
June 7: Pakistan, Edgbaston, 1330 BST
June 11: India, The Oval, 1030 BST
Pros: According to the rankings, they’ve got the best side, the best batsman (AB de Villiers), and the two best bowlers (Kagiso Rabada and Imran Tahir). Great opening partnership in Hashim Amla and Quinton de Kock, plenty of all-rounders, deep batting, big hitters, varied bowling attack. They’ve won 26 and lost only 14 of their last 40 completed games. In a tournament that doesn’t allow for a slow start, South Africa hit the first game battle-hardened after a high-quality three-match ODI series against England while others have been playing low-key warm-up games with Under-15 boundaries on the edge of the Edgbaston and Oval squares. Also find themselves in the easier of the two groups.
Cons: It’s South Africa, it’s a major tournament. Here comes the choking chat. Simply put, it’s going to be a problem until they prove it isn’t. The fear is that it’s almost a self-fulfilling vicious circle, with constant references in press conferences and interviews showing that it is in their heads even as they protest that it isn’t. Absolutely have the talent to win this, but the mental aptitude remains a huge question mark. Failing to make 10 runs off the last 10 balls with five wickets in hand in the second ODI against England doesn’t augur well.
Sri Lanka
Squad: Angelo Mathews (c), Upul Tharanga, Niroshan Dickwella, Kusal Perera, Kusal Mendis, Chamara Kapugedera, Asela Gunaratne, Dinesh Chandimal (wk), Lasith Malinga, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Nuwan Kulasekera, Thisara Perera, Lakshan Sandakan and Seekkuge Prasanna.
Fixtures:
June 3: South Africa, The Oval, 1030 BST
June 8: India, The Oval, 1030 BST
June 12: Pakistan, Cardiff, 1030 BST
Pros: Good record in ICC tournaments, winning the World Twenty20 in 2014 and reaching the final of the 2007 and 2011 World Cups. Lasith Malinga's return to the 50-over side after 18 months gives the squad a talismanic figure in the absence of their retired legends. All-rounders give the side a nice balance, with some dashing strokemakers in the squad. The inconsistent but sometimes brilliant Upul Tharanga is an under-rated ODI batsman; compare his near 6,000 runs and 14 centuries with England's best...
Cons: Dreadful recent record, whitewashed by South Africa in the absence of Angelo Mathews and beaten in a warm-up game by Scotland. Fast bowling looks an obvious and glaring weakness for a tournament in England while the batting line-up, perhaps understandably, is still struggling for consistency in the post-Dilshan, post-Jayawardene, post-Sangakkara age.
VERDICT
With Group A looking like a too-tight-to-call three-way bunfight between England, Australia and New Zealand, it makes sense to head to Group B to find a headline outright pick.
Certainly England and Australia are too short in the betting given that qualification for the semi-final is no sure thing, but both India and South Africa should be confident of getting through on the other half of the draw.
South Africa and India both have plenty to recommend them, and appear to have the tools to compete in English conditions.
But I’m still reluctant to back South Africa at any major tournament until they improve on their miserable record in knockout games; victory over Sri Lanka in the 2015 World Cup quarter-finals was their first, and they promptly lost to New Zealand in the semis.
India have no such questions to answer having won the 2011 World Cup on home soil and then this tournament in England two years later.
Their players arrive more battle-ready than most with the IPL season only just concluded and, at a bigger price than the Proteas, they have to be the bet given their superior tournament record.
The format of this tournament requires the winning team to play five games and, almost certainly, win at least four of them. As such, sportingbet’s 14/1 that India win the title while winning all five matches looks artificially inflated from their general outright price of 9/2 and worth a split stake.
If things progress as expected, you’re getting three times the price for India to win the tournament having beaten South Africa in the group stage.
That all said, there remains the prospect for things to go awry for anyone in the group stage. All but two of the 15 pool games get under way at 1030 BST. We saw in the third ODI between England and South Africa at Lord’s what can happen early in the morning in England, and, while that was an extreme example, the toss could be significant if there’s any dampness or cloud cover around.
I can’t shake the notion that Sri Lanka, for all their flaws, deserve more respect for a solid record in major tournaments. They’ve got Lasith Malinga back in the 50-over side for the first time since 2015, a fine captain and leader in Angelo Mathews, and batsmen who know their way around white-ball cricket and ICC tournaments.
It’s not one to throw much more than small change at, but 33/1 is surely too big for a side that could catch India or South Africa cold one morning before seeing off an inferior Pakistan side in their last group game and find themselves in a semi-final.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 1630 BST on 30/05/17.
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