Richard Mann has kicked off the Ashes with 14/1 and 6/1 winners – check out his third Test preview and best bets here.
Cricket tips: The Ashes, Australia v England
2pts Marnus Labuschagne to make a first innings century at 6/1 (bet365)
2pts Josh Tongue top England first innings bowler at 10/3 (General)
1pt Drawn Test match at 13.5 (Betfair Exchange)
Brendon McCullum might have in the last few days pushed back against the idea that England careers, including his own, are on the line in Adelaide this week, but what cannot be denied is that his team’s Ashes hopes hang by a thread going into the third Test which begins at 11:30pm on Tuesday.
Following two humbling defeats in Perth and Brisbane, England are all but dead and buried, though one suspects the tourists will be relieved the circus rolls onto Adelaide where the pitch is generally flat, the outfield quick, and the square boundaries short. There is less bounce here as well so, all in all, conditions should suit the away batting line-up well.
In fact, I reckon that’s just one reason why England fans ought to be feeling a little more optimistic about this week and, while taking 20 wickets might be a stretch on this surface, I am expecting better from England’s batters.
A good, old-fashioned rollicking (you know I wanted to replace the r with b there) from skipper Ben Stokes after the Gabba loss ought to have focussed a few minds and, as much as anything, there should now be a sense that this really is it.
England can rally with the bat
Someone like Ollie Pope may well be drinking in the last saloon bar in Adelaide, and I’m reminded of when England batsmen of old, Paul Collingwood, Andrew Strauss and Sir Alastair Cook, were in similar positions, before producing career-saving hundreds that opened the floodgates to rich veins of form.
Pope, out driving on the up twice in four innings on this tour already, probably needed the hairdryer treatment after Brisbane, though I’d argue Harry Brook even more so following another couple of puzzling efforts against the pink ball.
Brook is, of course, a generational talent, but he is in danger of ending this tour being labelled as a flat-track bully, one with a modest record against Australia. As good as Brook’s numbers are, this series always promised to be the acid test having not yet toured India or South Africa. Thus far, he has come up short.
I’m fascinated to see how Brook and Pope react this week, and with Joe Root and Zak Crawley both playing well in Brisbane, and Stokes in the second innings there, I’m inclined to take a more positive view about England’s prospects with the bat than others may ahead of this Test match.
What is also true is that England were underprepared to face Australia on two bowler-friendly wickets which offered good pace and bounce for the seamers. However, they ought to be better acclimatised now, and I’m hopeful that will play out in the middle.
In fact, I’d be more worried about England’s bowling and its ability to take the 20 Australian wickets needed to force a result and keep their hopes of regaining the Ashes alive.
It’s been downhill since England’s five-man pace attack performed so well on day one in Perth, and with no world-class spinner for Adelaide, or old masters James Anderson and Stuart Broad in their ranks, the tourists could once again find things tough in the field.
I’m not buying the early noises about the wicket at the Adelaide Oval being another bowler-friendly one because four days out a picture has surfaced on social media of a green strip with plenty of live grass on it. It’s been baking hot in that part of the world over the last week, so to ensure it doesn’t fall to pieces late in the game, keeping a good covering of grass on the pitch at this stage is essential.
It's the sort of thing we see happen at Lord’s every year as the same journalists tweet a picture of the wicket four days out, aghast at the sight of green grass. In such instances, first impressions are almost always deceiving, and I'm expecting the same here.
What are the best bets?
With that in mind, and in the belief both teams are primed to bat well this week, particularly in the first innings, I think there is value in trading the draw at 13.5 on the Betfair Exchange.
If Australia bat first, there is every incentive for them to bat big and long, with a draw enough to see them retain the Ashes, while I’m sure a few in their top seven will be keen to cash in having been faced with a tough pitch in Perth and the pink ball at the Gabba.
If that were to happen, and England respond with a good total themselves, the draw will have to shorten, likely considerably, and I note with interest that at the time of writing there is rain forecast for day five. Nothing spooks the market in relation to the draw price more than rain in the forecast.
I’ll start by backing the DRAW at the 13.5 and will update on this position in my daily in-play previews. The hope would be that we can place an order to lay off the initial stake at better than half the odds.
Sticking with the theme of favourable batting conditions and big first innings runs, I’m keen to back MARNUS LABUSCHAGNE TO MAKE A FIRST INNINGS CENTURY at 6/1.
I’ve been keen on Labuschagne all summer and felt he left behind a big score at the Gabba when cruising to 65, before giving it away when trying to cut a delivery that was far too close to his body.
But that innings continued Labuschagne’s strong form which saw him also register an unbeaten second-innings fifty in Perth to follow five hundreds for Queensland in domestic cricket prior to this series.
The final box ticked is Labuschagne’s record at the Adelaide Oval which is outstanding. In six Test matches here, the 31-year-old has recorded two hundreds – including one against England in 2021 – and two fifties, meaning his average on this ground currently stands at an impressive 70.88.
I’m happy to keep the faith and take the 6/1 on offer with bet365.
Take Tongue for top bowler honours
My final pre-match bet is JOSH TONGUE in the TOP ENGLAND FIRST INNINGS BOWLER market.
Though not yet confirmed, and anything is possible with the current England brains trust, I strongly suspect we’ll see him back in England’s starting XI this week.
It’s worth remembering how good Tongue was against the Australians in the 2023 home series, and 31 wickets from six matches represents a very promising start to his Test career.
Tongue can be erratic and thus expensive, and his action does have a lot of moving parts to it, but I like that he got through another 16 overs for the England Lions when they faced the Prime Minister’s XI prior to the second Test.
That should tee up Tongue nicely for Adelaide, and we shouldn’t forget that he was England’s leading wicket-taker in last summer’s home series against India, picking up 19 scalps in only three games.
His strike-rate of 40.1 in that series was significantly better than that of Stokes, Jofra Archer, Chris Woakes and Shoaib Bashir – once again demonstrating his priceless ability to conjure up magic balls even when wickets are generally hard to come by.
Key to Tongue’s success was his cutting edge against the tail, something England missed badly at the Gabba, and it makes him an attractive proposition if he does play this week.
Remember, it is stakes returned if he doesn’t make the cut, so I’m very happy to take the 10/3 about Tongue at this stage.
Posted at 18:40 GMT on 14/12/25
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