Richard Mann ponders whether England can bounce back and salvage some pride in the Boxing Day Test at the MCG – read his latest Ashes preview here.
Cricket tips: The Ashes, Australia v England
2pts Harry Brook under 25.5 first innings runs at 5/6 (Boylesports)
2pts Scott Boland top Australia first innings bowler at 3/1 (General)
0.5pt Brydon Carse top England first innings batsman at 50/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Jofra Archer top England first innings batsman at 150/1 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
With the Ashes gone, England have only pride to play for in the Boxing Day Test at the MCG.
To their credit, England fought hard to keep their Ashes hopes alive in Adelaide, for a brief moment even threatening to pull off a famous heist in the fourth innings, before brave efforts from Will Jacks and Jamie Smith eventually proved in vain.
In theory, this is a dead-rubber, so making any firm assumptions isn’t straightforward. Australia spent the 24 hours following their victory lap in Adelaide celebrating, as they should, while it sounds like England’s players have spent much of the tour knocking back the pints – if some reports are to be believed.
Selection dilemmas for Boxing Day
With the Ashes now safely secured, captain Pat Cummins won’t be risked in Melbourne as he tries to find a long-term fix for a bone stress injury in his back, while Nathan Lyon’s hamstring popped last week.
Michael Neser, Brendan Doggett and even Jhye Richardson are all in line for recalls, though Todd Murphy isn’t certain to be selected as the spinner, should Australia feel one is required.
In normal circumstances, one would expect to see England make a raft of changes, but usual rules don’t apply with the brains trust of Rob Key and Brendon McCullum, so all bets are off.
Jacob Bethell should replace Ollie Pope at number three, and I do think it’s time England select a seam bowler who can actually own off stump and create some pressure for Jofra Archer to feed off. My vote would go to Matt Fisher, in place of Brydon Carse, whose limitations have been brutally exposed in these conditions.
Remarkably, Carse is England’s leading wicket-taker in the series, and thus may well avoid the axe. Archer might need a break, with the series lost and the T20 World Cup not far away, and Gus Atkinson or even Matthew Potts are waiting in the wings. If Shoaib Bashir wasn’t picked in Adelaide, the MCG would seem unlikely but, again, take nothing for granted with cowboys Key and McCullum.
Sporting pitch in prospect at the MCG
The pitch at the MCG used to be one of the flattest in the world. Alastair Cook made 244 not out here in 2017, but since then there has been a real shift with the venue under threat to lose its Test status.
As such, we’ve seen a conscious effort to make the wicket more sporting, and in the last Ashes series here, England were rolled out for 185 in the first innings and 68 in the third dig as Scott Boland ran riot. The pitch was green that year, and the ball swung and seamed throughout all three completed innings.
South Africa were rolled out for 189 batting first a year later, but it must be said that was a struggling side at the time. Pakistan and India both found things slightly easier in the following two years.
The evidence from this season’s Sheffield Shield suggests tough going, without being a minefield. In three Shield games at the MCG, 256 was the highest score across first and second innings. As ever, the in-play previews should offer up a better chance to make a more accurate judgment of the surface.
What are the best bets?
We might know more about England’s mental state by then, too, but I do have some concerns, especially about someone like HARRY BROOK who continues to make big mistakes at key junctures.
Moreover, his lack of foot movement against the moving ball just outside off stump has been found out on this tour against elite opposition. Australia now have the template to expose Brook’s weakness, and if the pitch is anything like we saw in Melbourne four years ago, he could be in big trouble.
The Yorkshireman is currently averaging 28.83 in the series, and backing UNDER 25.5 HARRY BROOK FIRST INNINGS RUNS at 5/6 makes plenty of appeal, with the prospect of a juicy pitch to contend with.
The man who could cause Brook big problems is hometown hero SCOTT BOLAND, who claimed remarkable figures of 6-7 in that 2021 Ashes Test match on this ground and earned lofty praise from Zak Crawley last week. A remarkable climbdown from the previously cocksure Bazballers.
After a nervous start in the first innings in Perth, Boland has bowled extremely well, and 11 wickets at 28.09 probably don’t do his efforts or the quality of his performances justice. One would expect that will change at some stage, and where better than on his home ground at the MCG?
With neither Cummins nor Lyon for competition, and Mitchell Starc entitled to be a little weary following his exploits in the series already, Boland rates a bet to be TOP AUSTRALIA FIRST INNINGS BOWLER at 3/1.
Back the big prices for England honours
Finally, I want to revisit the top ENGLAND FIRST INNINGS BATSMAN market, and am willing to chance my arm with a couple of darts.
The obvious starting point is JOFRA ARCHER who has batted really well, suggesting number 10 in the order is a spot or two too low for him. Archer made 38 at the Gabba and then 51, his maiden Test fifty, in an impressive rearguard with Ben Stokes in the first innings in Adelaide.
There was no slogging in that innings, just sensible batting and some beautiful cover drives which confirmed he has all the talent in the world. If he keeps his head down, there is no reason why Archer’s batting can’t continue to go from strength to strength.
BetMGM and Virgin Bet are way out with quotes of 150/1, and I’d be prepared to take a swing at 50/1 or bigger. Remember, stakes are returned if Archer is rested.
And on the same theme, BRYDON CARSE looks worth a few quid at 50/1, given he played so well in the second innings in Adelaide for his 39 not out, following a rapid 20 in Perth.
Carse can bat if he can just show some patience, and he made a half-century against India last summer. Part of the reason England have invested so heavily in Carse is because they believe him to be a combative, all-round cricketer, and his batting is very much part of the package.
If he plays again, and we are very much guessing at this stage, Carse could easily bat at number eight, and there is every chance we get a situation where Australia’s seamers level England’s top order with the new ball in favourable conditions, leaving this market wide-open for the middle and lower order.
As such, Carse is worth a swing at 50/1.
Should neither play, which could well be the case, that would mean Atkinson, who has a Test century to his name, would highly likely be recalled, while Matt Fisher has a big heart and can hold a bat, for all he’s more of a grinder than one for a few late lusty blows.
England might need to put away those lusty blows this week, anyway, though on the evidence of the first three games, whatever method the tourists adopt, it seems Australia will have the answers.
Posted at 08:05 GMT on 23/12/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
