Ashes 2017/18 free betting tips: Series outright and correct score markets

An Ashes series in Australia prompts two questions: can England really go there and win the series? And, more pertinently, will they get beat 5-0 again?

The answers: yes with a but, and no with an if.

England can win this series. They have one of the very best batsmen in the world. They have a 900-wicket new-ball pairing. They have a powerhouse lower middle-order. They have a gun wicketkeeper-batsman.

Australia possess only the first of these things. England have more Test and more Ashes experience and the worries they have (reliant on two batsmen, rookie opener, glaring holes where numbers three and five should be, debutant fourth seamer due to Ben Stokes’ self-inflicted absence) are certainly no worse than Australia’s (reliant on two batsmen, out of form opener, glaring holes where wicketkeeper and all-rounder should be, scarily gifted but scarily injury-prone pace attack).

Here comes the but…

For England to win in Australia, almost everything has to go right. England arrived in 2010/11 on the crest of a wave. They knew exactly what their best side was, they had planned for every eventuality and – crucially – they prepared for the series with proper hard-fought warm-up games against high-quality opposition; a mistake Australia, and in fairness England when tables are turned, have made sure not to repeat.

Even without adequate warm-up opposition, and even with the known flaws and holes in England’s squad, it would have been eminently possible to build a case for England as value outsiders were Ben Stokes here, and the squad not bedevilled with injury problems.

But while the thumping victory over a callow Cricket Australia XI in Adelaide was welcome – and may be of particular use when assessing their chances in the pink-ball Test to come – the ease with which their bowlers struck is countered by the struggles of England’s batsmen on a pitch far slower than that they will encounter in the Tests.

The final warm-up game in Townsville has offered more of the same. Even when they hit the Test series perfectly prepared in 2010, they had to score 517-1 in their second innings to escape Brisbane with a draw.

Whatever happens over the remaining two days in Townsville, England are hitting the series undercooked and underprepared. For every encouraging sign there has been an injury scare or a form worry.

It would be a monumental achievement were England to win this series, or even draw it.

But Australia’s own frailties mean I can’t see them winning 5-0 for the third time in four Ashes series Down Under. Put simply, England have too many good players and Australia too many iffy ones.

The fragility of both sides mean it’s far more likely that we’ll see something more akin to the 2015 series in England: a series of one-sided matches where momentum lurches this way and that. It’s not remotely outlandish to imagine Australia winning by 200 runs in Brisbane and England doing likewise in Adelaide.

What is harder to envisage is a draw. Unless there is significant rain – and England’s mere presence in Townsville was enough to bring the wet stuff to a place that sees almost none of it – it’s hard to look at how these two sides match up and come up with a way that a Test doesn’t produce a result in five days.

England may bat a long way down, but they don’t necessarily bat a long way up. And even during the 2013/14 whitewash, Australia’s batting didn’t entirely convince. That top six – featuring Chris Rogers, Michael Clarke and Shane Watson – was better than their current line-up, yet Brad Haddin was still their second-highest scorer with 493 runs at better than 60. He frequently saved them from not-many-for-five – who will do it this time? Matthew Wade, with one score above 40 in his last 19 Test innings? Tim Paine, with his single first-class century scored in 2006 (Australia’s coach, Darren Lehmann, scored one more recently than that)? Peter Nevill, the best gloveman available but with a Test average of 22 and a highest score of 32 in all cricket for NSW this season?

Australia’s top six is vulnerable enough that England should get opportunities to dismiss them cheaply. And this time the Australia lower order is weak enough that England should be able to take at least one of them.

While neither bowling line-up is perfect, it’s certainly fair to say they both look better than the batting line-ups. Since June 2015, Australia have drawn three of 30 Tests and England four of 35.

There are a few places offering 11/8 for there to be no drawn Test in this series, and that really does look well worth making the cornerstone of any staking plan this winter. It even keeps 5-0 onside.

In the last 10 Tests at each of the five Ashes venues, there has been one draw at Melbourne and Perth and two at Brisbane and Sydney. There have been three at Adelaide, but none in the last four and it’s also a day-nighter where the ball could really talk under the lights.

There have been only two draws in the last five Ashes Test series in Australia, while no Test in the 2015 English series ever looked like going the distance.

Funnily enough, both those draws in Australia – in 1998 and 2010 – came at the Gabba. So if history can be trusted we can start counting our money before November is out if the first Test goes as expected.

There has been no draw in five of the last nine Test series played in Australia. Now most of those have been over three or four Tests rather than five, but if we look exclusively at five-Test series in Australia then going all the way back to 1996/97 there have been no draws in five out of seven.

And once we’ve decided there won’t be any draws, it has to open up some value in the correct score market.

The obvious contenders here are 4-1 and 3-2 for the home side. There are three grounds where England have a puncher’s chance of winning: Under the lights in Adelaide, and over Christmas and New Year at Melbourne and Sydney where many a dead rubber has gone the tourists’ way down the years.

Their best chance comes at Adelaide, but unlike in 2006/7 and 2013/14, I wouldn’t rule them out in Melbourne and Sydney even if the series is gone. I just don’t think this Australia is good enough – or England weak enough – for the tourists to be beaten before they take the field as they were at the back end of those two series.

There’s 17/2 available for 3-2 and 8/1 around for 4-1, so there’s certainly a case for splitting stakes across the two. For me, though, it’s the 4-1 at 8/1 that looks the better value; it gives us two bites of the cherry, with an England win either at Adelaide or in a late dead rubber looking more likely than both.

Recommended bets: Ashes series outrights

8pts No Test to end in a draw at 11/8 - Two draws in last five Ashes series in Australia, neither side set up for stalemates

2pts Australia to win 4-1 at 8/1 - England's top six too weak to mount serious challenge for series, Australia's too weak for another 5-0

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Posted at 1100 GMT on 16/11/17.