Usyk v Dubois betting tips and analysis: Best bets for Saturday's TNT Sports fight

Boxing betting tips: Usyk v Dubois

2pts Oleksandr Usyk to win in rounds 7-12 at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The boxing world may be up in arms at the failure of Tyson Fury and OLEKSANDR USYK to agree terms to a long-awaited clash for all the heavyweight belts, but Daniel Dubois must have been jumping for joy.

As the blame game continues between the two champions and their respective teams, Dubois gets a shot at Usyk on Saturday night with the Ukrainian’s three titles on the line.

However, it could be a case of 'be careful what you wish for' with Dubois, who has an almighty task on his hands and that is highlighted by his odds of 15/2 to prevail in Poland. His job is made even more daunting by the fact this is as close to a homecoming as Usyk will get, with an estimated 200,000 Ukrainians now residing in Wroclaw and the large partisan crowd in the stadium set to be pretty intimidating for the Brit.

Make no mistake, a Dubois victory would be a major upset and arguably one of the best wins from a British fighter on foreign soil. A lack of experience at the top level and on the big stage mean he would ideally want a few more fights before his title tilt, but these opportunities don’t come round very often, and it is one he simply had to take.

A 1/10 favourite, Usyk (20-0) needs no introduction as a two-time Olympic champion who rapidly unified all the belts in a red-hot cruiserweight division as a professional before taking aim at the heavyweights.

Against the big boys, he only showed us a glimpse of what he is capable of against Chazz Wtiherspoon and Derek Chisora, before unveiling his full repertoire when outboxing and outpointing Anthony Joshua to claim the latter’s world titles in front of 60,000 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in September 2021.

In the rematch in Saudi Arabia 12 months ago, Usyk put on another boxing masterclass to retain the belts by decision and, while those brilliant displays against ‘AJ’ were no surprise to hardcore fans, it introduced Usyk to a much greater audience and gained him a whole host of new supporters.

While Usyk has been operating and winning at the highest level for many years now, both amateur and professional, this is all very much new territory for Dubois, who was hailed as the next big thing in the heavyweight division when stopping 14 of his first 15 victims in brutal fashion. However, his limitations were exposed a little when he was stopped in 10 rounds by domestic rival Joe Joyce in November 2020.

He bounced back with four quick stoppage wins, most notably when picking up the WBA ‘regular’ belt with a four-round stoppage of Trevor Bryan 14 months ago to put him in pole position for a crack at Usyk’s ‘full’ WBA title.

However, he narrowly avoided being on the wrong end of a huge shock when dropped three times in the first round by Kevin Lerena in December, before rallying to halt the South African at the end of the third session.

A knee injury was blamed for that scare, but it was hardly the ideal preparation for a mammoth task like this, especially with a few similarities in opponents to cause further worry for Team Dubois. Like Usyk, Lerena brought speed up from cruiserweight and was also a southpaw. That was the first ‘lefty’ Dubois had faced as a professional and if you have a problem with ‘portsiders’, the last man you want to be taking on is Usyk.

Usyk’s silky skills and boxing IQ provide a test like no other heavyweight. With unusually nimble feet for his 6’3” frame, his movement and speed are more akin to a welterweight, while his relentless feinting, twitching and head movement mean his opponents are constantly having to reset and, therefore, they can find it hard to plant their feet to unleash their power punches.

He doesn’t run, either, and likes to do all of this in punching range, making his opponent throw more and work harder than they want to, and he’s very hard to hit cleanly as he’s never in the same place for too long.

'Dubois should be tailor-made for Usyk'

Physically bigger and stronger at 6’5”, Dubois likes to push forward behind his jab and, when he finds a home for that lead left hand, it is followed by the heavy overhand or straight right. That is the punch that has earned him the nickname ‘Dynamite’ and there is no doubting he can do damage if he detonates that bomb, but it is a big if against Usyk and it’s hard to give him more than a ‘puncher’s chance’, as they say.

In truth, Dubois should be tailor-made for Usyk. While technically sound and with solid fundamentals, the visitor doesn’t have any ‘special effects’ and, crucially, his feet aren’t the quickest either.

As he looks to close the gap on the champion, the latter should be able to slip and counter with regularity, thanks to his superior speed and footwork. Joshua held similar physical advantages over Usyk and it counted for very little over their 24 rounds, as he became hesitant after regularly missing the moving target, and that is when the Ukrainian goes through the gears.

One talking point ahead of Saturday has been Dubois’ split from top coach Shane McGuigan. All four wins since the Joyce loss have been under the guidance of McGuigan, who produced plenty of improvement in the Greenwich man, and their breakup is not seen as a positive.

Neither is the perceived mental strength of Dubois or, should I say, the lack thereof. Having taken a knee for the full 10-count due to a fractured eye-socket against Joyce, many labelled him a ‘quitter’ and, while that may be a little harsh, even McGuigan has recently gone on record as saying his biggest worry for his former pupil is the lack of belief he has in himself.

Team Dubois will hoping a long career at the top will start to show for Usyk now and while that is always a possibility, there have been absolutely no signs of any decline so far and all the evidence points to a tough night at the office for the challenger.

The best Dubois can probably hope for is to put up a good showing in defeat and if he could force Usyk to settle for a points win (11/4), then the Brit's stock would rise in the process. That is very much a possibility as three of the champion’s four heavyweight victories have come via that method.

However, the pace at which Usyk works is very rare at heavyweight and that could be the main obstacle for Dubois seeing out the full 12 rounds.

Dubois knows his best chance is to start fast and really stick it on the smaller man, but that will require a fair chunk of petrol from his tank before the halfway mark, which is when Usyk likes to step up on the gas. The champion isn’t the biggest puncher, especially for the division, but he throws from all sorts of angles and a tiring Dubois may not see where the shots are coming from as the fight goes on.

Add that to the problems Dubois had with the southpaw stance last time out and a strong case can be made for an exhausted Dubois being overwhelmed or saved by his corner in the second half of the fight.

Dubois’ lack of experience at this level and never having done the full 12-round distance are also against him here, so there is a lot to like about the 2/1 for USYK TO WIN IN ROUNDS 7-12.

• CLICK HERE to back Usyk to win in rounds 7-12 with Sky Bet

Usyk vs Dubois: How to watch Saturday's big fight

• Time and date: Ring walks at around 2300 BST on Saturday August 26
• Venue: Tarczynski Arena, Wroclaw, Poland
• Where to watch: TNT Sports Box Office (£19.95) CLICK to access
• How to listen: talkSPORT have exclusive live radio coverage in the UK

Usyk vs Dubois undercard

• Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois
• Denys Berinchyk vs Anthony Yigit
• Dmytro Mytrofanov vs Hamzah Sheeraz
• Daniel Lapin vs Aro Schwartz
• Fiodor Czerkaszyn vs Anauel Ngamissengue
• Rafal Wolczecki vs Roberto Arriaza
• Vasile Cebotari vs Joel Julio
• Nursultan Amanzholov vs Lazizbek Mullojonov
• Oleksandr Solomennikov vs Piotr Gudel
• Ziyad Almaayouf vs Janos Penzes
• Bryce Mills vs Damian Tymosz
• Yaroslav Khartsyz vs Konrad Czajkowski

Posted at 1110 BST on 25/08/23

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.