Free UFC betting tips: UFC Vegas 19 preview, selections and analysis
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 19
2pts Curtis Blaydes to win by TKO/KO at 6/5 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
1pt Tom Aspinal to win by TKO/KO at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Aspinall to win in round one at 21/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2.5pts Nassourdine Imavov to win at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1.5pts Pat Sabatini to win by Submission or Decision at 5/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Pat Sabatini to win by Submission at 13/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Main card
By Kieran Cobley
It’s all about the heavyweights at UFC Vegas 19, with four heavyweight fights across the card, three of which make the main card.
In the main event, Curtis 'Razor' Blaydes takes on 'The Black Beast' Derrick Lewis in what could be a pivotal fight in the heavyweight rankings.
Aleksei Oleinik, a 74-fight veteran, takes on Chris Daukas, who is a exciting prospect in the heavyweight division.
Tom Aspinall opens up the main card in only his third UFC appearance following two first round knockouts, as he takes on former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski.
Blaydes to land knockout blow
Let me be very clear on this: Blaydes v Lewis is not going to go the distance. In Blaydes you have an aggressive wrestler who has been very open about his game plan, which is to take his opponent down and then throw heavy elbows and punches to win the fight. It’s a tried and tested method and it works for him.
Blaydes has a takedown accuracy of 55% and in his last four fights; he has landed 26 takedowns showing he is more than capable of getting his opponents to the mat. With 10 of his 14 wins coming via KO as well, there is definitive proof of Blaydes’ game plan being rock solid.
Lewis also has a heavy right hand, and has produced some stunning come behind victories in the past, so backing either fighter to win by TKO/KO is an option - consider doing so in a double with my next selection. However, CURTIS BLAYDES holds the aces and gets the vote.
Aspinall capable of fireworks
TOM ASPINALL is perhaps the next British UFC champion, and he has made quite the name for himself already in the UFC.
A former sparring partner of world boxing champion Tyson Fury, the Team Kaobon fighter has won eight fights by TKO/KO, with all nine of his professional wins coming in the first round.
It is this penchant for winning fights quickly and emphatically that has seen Aspinall be matched up with a former champion in Andrei Arlovski, and this is a fight he should win.
Aspinall’s ability to chain boxing combinations together sees him regularly drop opponents and if they aren’t immediately knocked out he quickly follows up with ground and pound to win the fight.
Arlovski’s ability to take a punch also has to be a factor in this fight: he has been knocked out 11 times and has been in 51 pro fights (including no contests). That will have put some serious wear on his chin and should be something Aspinall takes advantage of quickly.
Preliminaries
By Will Dean
French fancy
MMA is finally on the rise in France, with the sport recently being legalised and broadcast regionally in 2020. Rising stars such as Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane have already begun to dominate the UFC’s heavyweight division, but NASSOURDINE IMAVOV will be hoping to become the face of French MMA at 185lbs.
Training alongside the Heavyweight behemoths at the MMA Factory in Paris, Imavov is currently riding a six-fight winning streak, with the most recent win coming in his UFC debut. The Frenchman showed himself to be a well-rounded fighter, with a decent level of endurance to compete for 15 minutes against a hard hitter.
Imavov faces a dangerous test in the early goings against Phil Hawes, who has finished all of his nine professional wins inside six minutes (seven of those coming in round one). Conversely, Hawes’ two professional losses, as well as his exhibition fight on the Ultimate Fighter, all came when fights moved past the eight-minute mark.
From watching these fights, there is a clear cardio issue for Megatron, who comes flying out the gates in the opening round and throws his strikes with clear knockout intentions. Imavov faced a similar narrative in his UFC debut, but was able to weather the early storm and take over in rounds two and three.
Skill for skill, I actually think these two fighters are pretty equal in their abilities, with the cardio edge favouring Imavov. As long as he can survive that early onslaught, he has the perfect opportunity to extend French fighters to 2-0 in 2021, in what could be a monumental year for French MMA.
Sabatini to steal the show
A classic bout of striker against grappler, Rafael Alves faces PAT SABATINI in a late-notice fight at 145lbs. Both men are making their UFC debut in this fight, so the stage is set for one of them to make a huge impression on Saturday night.
At face value, Alves is certainly the more likely to turn heads. The Brazilian is a flashy striker, utilising spinning kicks and flying knees in his search for the knockout blow. He also has a brilliant guillotine choke that he can cinch up in the blink of an eye.
A crowd-pleasing style such as Alves’ often comes with its detriments, though. As you might expect, such explosive and high effort attacks take their toll on the Brazilian’s gas tank, and being off balance increases the likelihood that he ends up on his back.
Such weaknesses will be music to Sabatini’s ears, as the American will certainly be looking to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible and utilise his high-level wrestling and BJJ.
The American has been on a tear in recent years, dominating most of the competition at CFFC, a known feeder organisation for future UFC talent. Sabatini has eight wins within the company, with six victories coming by submission (taking his career total to 10 tap-out wins).
Sabatini’s pressure wrestling style is suffocating and, when combined with his black belt in BJJ, incredibly dangerous. The American has the potential to end a fight with a multitude of submission attacks, as well as the dominance and positional awareness to keep you on the bottom and prevent you from getting back up.
Overall, I think Sabatini possesses one of the worst stylistic matchups that a striker like Alves could face. As long as the American can stay patient and defensively sound on the feet, then he will get his opportunity to crash the pocket and drag his opponent to the mat. The longer he is able to do this, the more he drains Alves’ cardio and limits the chance of a stoppage win for the Brazilian.
While the top position of Sabatini will be enough to win him this fight on the judges’ scorecards, Alves’ six submission losses implies that the American can find a finish in this fight. At 13/2, I think that’s worth a smaller wager on the side.
Posted at 0925 GMT on 17/02/21
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