MMA betting tips: UFC Fight Night preview and tips, Saturday May 22
Will Dean is backing Rob Font to win the main event as he previews the pick of the action at UFC Fight Night.
MMA betting tips: UFC Fight Night
2pts Rob Font to win at 10/11 (General)
2pts Carla Esparza to win by decision at 8/5 (bet365)
3pts Bruno Silva to win by KO or submission at 10/11 (bet365, Betway)
When Henry Cejudo relinquished the Bantamweight title in May 2020, the division was plunged into an era of uncertainty. After a year of hotly contested matchups at the pinnacle of the 135lbs division, Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling ultimately squared off in March of this year to give the division some stability. Yet the situation became even more complex when Yan was disqualified for landing an illegal knee on Sterling, resulting in the latter being declared the new champion, despite being comfortably outclassed by his Russian opponent.
As fans eagerly await a rematch between these two foes, other Bantamweights are beginning to congregate as the next challengers to the eventual champion. Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt, who sit in respective third and fourth positions in the division’s rankings, could find themselves in pole position with a victory against the other on Saturday night.
The stakes are just as high for co-main event fighters Yan Xiaonan and Carla Esparza, who are both on the cusp of a showdown with the recently crowned Strawweight Champion, Rose Namajunas. Elsewhere on the card, Jack Hermansson and Edmen Shahbazyan will clash in the Middleweight division, and Bruno Silva looks to extend his winning streak at Flyweight against Victor Rodriguez.
When is UFC Fight Night?
Saturday, May 22 — although it'll be Sunday in the UK
How can I watch it on TV?
Coverage is live in the UK on BT Sport 1, from 0000-0330 BST on Sunday May 16
A bold showing from Font
Having now made 11 appearances in the UFC, ROB FONT is just one signature win away from becoming a high-profile name in the Bantamweight division. The Puerto Rican is widely regarded as one of the best strikers in the sport today, with a piston-like jab that seems to cause every opponent problems. The fluidity of Font’s striking was on full display in his recent knockout victory over Marlon Moraes, initially hurting the Brazilian with his patented jab, before following up with a well-timed uppercut to close the show.
Font’s opponent on Saturday night will be none other than Cody Garbrandt, a former champion in the division. No Love’s title-winning display against Dominick Cruz still remains one of the best individual performances of all time in modern MMA, but the Ohio native has fallen on difficult times since that 2016 victory. Three back-to-back knockout losses and long-term Covid-19 complications have left Garbrandt on the periphery of the title picture, but a decisive victory over Font would certainly remind UFC fans what he is truly capable of.
In a contest between two very high-level strikers, sometimes one fighter’s physical advantages can be enough to tip the balance. While they seem evenly matched in their respective skills and attributes, Font wields a six-inch reach advantage over Garbrandt, which will further accentuate his dominant jab. If the Puerto Rican can manage the distance well enough, he will be able to deal significant damage, with the American unable to reply with offense of his own.
Given the range disparity, Garbrandt will have to attempt to get inside the pocket and land damage from a closer distance if he is to have success in this fight. By constantly crowding the space between him and Font, there is a much bigger likelihood that this fight will turn into a chaotic brawl, with powerful strikes being thrown back and forth.
Of course, this will be great entertainment for UFC fans at home, but it could be disastrous for Garbrandt, whose hot-headedness and pride often get the better of him when his fights turn into a slugfest. In each of his three recent knockout losses, No Love became overzealous with his aggression and, whilst hunting for the fight-ending blow, abandoned his defence and found himself on the receiving end of the stoppage.
If Garbrandt is forced to fight this way to counteract Font’s reach advantage, then I trust the durability of the Puerto Rican who, unlike Garbrandt, has never been knocked out.
With this in mind, I think there is significant value in FONT TO WIN at the current 10/11 odds, as he will be able to land damage from any range in this fight. Whether the Puerto Rican finds a knockout or wins on the judges’ scorecards, I expect him to enter the Bantamweight title picture with a victory here.
Easy for Esparza?
When CARLA ESPARZA was crowned the inaugural UFC Strawweight champion in 2014, few could have predicted that she would again challenge for the belt six years later against the woman she originally beat, Rose Namajunas.
For that anticipated rematch to happen, Cookie Monster must first get through Yan Xiaonan, who is just as deserving of a title shot in her own right. Having won six consecutive fights inside the UFC, Nine has shown herself to be a powerhouse of a striker who commits to every shot she throws.
While the prospect of fighting Xiaonan would strike fear into most opponents, Esparza has no issue being at a striking disadvantage, as has been the case so many times in her career. As a dedicated grappler who relies on her heavy top control, Esparza has made a living off of neutralising dangerous strikers with her dominant wrestling. With eight wins from 12 UFC appearances, Esparza has won on the scorecards on seven occasions, making her possibly the most difficult grappler in the division to face.
Given how easily she can neutralise her opponent’s skillset, it is rare to see Esparza as the underdog at this stage in her career. Her opponents are always lulled into a false sense of security, believing that they hold such a big striking advantage and, as long as they stay standing, they will surely win. For that reason, many underperform against Esparza, scared to overcommit with their striking in case they end up on their back. This is vital to Cookie Monster’s success, as her opponents usually fail to convince the judges of their performance in each round, allowing her to pull ahead with her grappling.
Xiaonan faced a similar stylistic challenge in her last bout against Claudia Gadelha. While the Chinese fighter ultimately won a comfortable 29-28 decision, she was taken down twice and controlled for four minutes in the opening round. Gadelha is a high-level BJJ player, but she lacks the endurance and wrestling ability to maintain a grappling heavy approach across 15 minutes. Esparza is superior to the Brazilian in both departments and should be able to emulate Gadelha’s first round across the entirety of this fight.
This is a huge fight for Esparza, as a win likely puts her in contention for the next title shot at 115lbs. If Cookie Monster can stay committed to her grappling and pin her opponent to the mat, then the 8/5 odds on ESPARZA TO WIN BY DECISION should provide great value.
Back Brazilian Bulldog
BRUNO SILVA’s strength of schedule has done him a serious disservice in his career so far, as the Brazilian has faced tough competition in a number of his bouts and is much better than his 11-5-2 record suggests. Despite losses to notable names such as David Dvorak and Tagir Ulanbekov, Silva performed well in both bouts and made the contests much closer than they were expected to be.
Bulldog certainly hits hard for a Flyweight, as he demonstrated in his recent victory over JP Buys. Silva used good head movement to create openings for his counter right hand, which seemingly landed at will. After dropping his opponent on two occasions in the second round, Silva was patient and waited for his opportunity to land the very same strike and end the contest with a third and final knockdown.
The discipline and evasiveness shown by the Brazilian is a testament to how far his striking has developed after training with the likes of Henry Cejudo and Chan Sung Jung at FightReady MMA in recent years, and Saturday night will present Silva with another opportunity for a highlight-reel finish.
His opponent, Victor Rodriguez, seems to have entered the UFC far too early in his career, having stepped in on short notice as an 4/1 underdog to fight Adrian Yanez. Rodriguez was clearly outmatched in that fight, lasting under two minutes before being knocked out with a thunderous head kick. Rodriguez’s reaction to being hit was certainly concerning, as his demeanour immediately changed and a finish seemed inevitable once the first clean shot landed.
Silva is the much more well-rounded fighter of the two, having demonstrated power in his hands and an opportunistic submission game. With eight of his 12 wins coming inside the distance, I believe he can make light work of Rodriguez with a comfortable finish.
The knockout seems more likely of the two outcomes, but Silva has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and will be dangerous if he ends up in top position. Either way, I believe Bulldog gets the STOPPAGE VICTORY far more often than not, so the current 10/11 betting odds seem too appealing to turn down.
Posted at 1250 BST on 20/04/21
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