UFC Fight Island 3: Main card free betting preview and tips
There's a monster seven-fight programme to conclude UFC's Fight Island on Saturday night and Kieran Cobley is here to mark your card.
Recommended bets, Saturday July 25
2pts Darren Till to beat Robert Whittaker at evens
1pt Khamzat Chimaev to beat Rhys Mckee in round three at 17/2
It's the finale of the UFC’s two-week trip to Fight Island on Saturday and the promotion has laid on a feast of fights to finish the fortnight with a bang.
Darren Till and Robert Whittaker face off in the main event of a seven- (yes, you read that correctly) fight main card, which kicks off with highly fancied prospect Khamzat Chimaev taking on the latest Cage Warriors call-up, Rhys McKee.
Enjoy the action!
Help yourself to the Till...
This is a huge fight for Darren Till. It’s only his second fight in the UFC at middleweight after making the step up last year, and it comes against the former middleweight champion and Ultimate Fighter winner Robert Whittaker.
However, I do give Till the edge here.
'The Gorilla' typically comes out in a southpaw stance, allowing him to find the target with a big left hand, as seen in several of his previous fights, and this is something that can be a problem for fighters coming out in an orthodox stance.
When fighting against a southpaw, orthodox fighters can be left wide open on one side, leaving them vulnerable to big left hand punches and left leg body kicks, and that will be Till’s key to victory.
Till is likely to be passive, waiting for Whittaker to engage, before slipping his shots and countering with his own shots and walking Whittaker down, and this is likely to occur over and over again.
Till will also look to utilise the clinch, holding Whittaker in, before letting him go and aiming shots at his head on the release just like Israel Adesnaya executed so well to beat Whittaker in the Australian’s last outing, which ended in knockout.
I don’t see Till being able to stop Whittaker but if he keeps to his gameplan there will be a puncher's chance, and if the fight does go the distance, if he has landed the bigger shots and had the bigger moments on the counter-attack, he can edge a decision.
Short-priced bankers
I'm really excited to see Alexander Gustafsson make the move up to heavyweight and fight Fabricio Werdum, not just because it’s an interesting match-up but, for me, it's a fight that we can confidently add into multiple bets.
For the context of why this is a good match-up for Gustafsson, you only need to look at Fabricio Werdum’s last fight against Alexey Oleinik back in May.
Werdum was coming back after a suspension handed to him by USADA for using banned substances, and it showed - the Brazilian looked sluggish and sloppy. Watching that back it’s hard to imagine he was once thought to have one of the best gas tanks in heavyweight MMA.
Compare that to Gustafsson, who is moving up in weight. The Swedish fighter doesn’t have to focus on a weight cut, he can focus solely on getting stronger, lifting heavier weights, including more protein in his diet, and even with this, he will probably come into the fight weighing lighter than Werdum giving him a cardio advantage.
If Gustaffson can make sure he isn’t taken to the mat by Werdum, who is a very high level BJJ black belt, he has everything he needs to beat the former heavyweight champion and catapult himself into the heavyweight rankings.
For the second leg of the double I'm looking at a fight that all die hard MMA fans will be looking forward to - Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua vs Antonio 'Lil Nog' Nogueira 3.
A trilogy that will have seen fights take place in three decades, and will finish 15 years after the two men first fought.
In an ideal situation, this fight should take place in Brazil, where both men are from, in front of a packed out arena, but alas, current circumstances don’t allow it.
I see 'Shogun' taking it to 3-0 in the mini-series, and to round it off by knocking out his opponent for a second time.
Rua’s two most recent wins have both come via KO and he came very close to stopping Paul Craig in his last fight, showing he still has that striking power there, even after 18 years of fighting and the wear and tear that will have put on his body.
You also have to factor Nogueira's chin into the equation, after all, three of his last four defeats have come via KO, showing that his ability to take a punch has diminished over time.
However, I'm keen to cover my back here by tipping the KO/decision double chance as these men do know each other very well after fighting twice already and that could lead to them perhaps being over cautious or a touch slower than many expect.
Three and easy for Chimaev?
Khamzat Chimaev has already made a big impression in the UFC after beating John Phillips at middleweight last Wednesday in impressive fashion, and taking a fight at his more natural welterweight just ten days after will just make his star shine brighter.
Chimaev will take on Rhys Mckee at 175lbs in the first fight of the main card and this is a match-up that should certainly suit the Swedish fighter.
McKee is taking this fight on just six days notice and will have not had time to prepare for Chimaev’s ruthless wrestling style, in which he drags his opponent to the canvas and mercilessly strikes at them until he wins by KO or a gap opens for him to lock in a submission hold like he did against Phillips.
In previous fights, notably against Terry Brazier back in BAMMA, McKee has struggled to get back to his feet in fights, and being off your feet with Chimaev on top of you is a dangerous place to be.
Although Chimaev has never entered a third round in his pro career, I believe this will be the fight where he does, as McKee is very tough and durable, as shown in his Cage Warriors fights and this will likely mean he can endure Chimaev’s game plan for two rounds.
Expect Chimaev to get the fight to the ground as quickly as possible in each round and strike at McKee for the first two rounds, before finishing the fight in the third round with either ground and pound or a rear naked choke submission.
Posted at 0920 BST on 23/07/20
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