Boxing betting tips: Moruti Mthalane v Sunny Edwards plus BT Sport undercard

Boxing betting tips: Friday April 30

2pts Sunny Edwards to win by decision at 6/4 (General)

1pt Michael Conlan to win by stoppage 3/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Moruti Mthalane v Sunny Edwards

When: Friday April 30, approx. 2200 BST

Where: York Hall, Bethnal Green

TV info: BT Sport, 1900-2330 BST

The BT Sport cameras are at the York Hall in Bethnal Green for the second time in six days and this time it is for world title action on Friday evening.

After Felix Cash produced a brilliant display to stop Denzel Bentley in East London on Saturday, SUNNY EDWARDS is going to have to produce a career-best performance of his own if he's to dethrone IBF flyweight king Moruti Mthalane.

Edwards is bidding to follow in the footsteps of his brother, Charlie, in capturing world honours, but could have been handed much easier opportunities than the South African visitor, who is possibly the most underrated of all the current champions in the sport.

Virtually unknown outside of hardcore boxing fans, Mthalane (39-2) is unbeaten since facing future Hall of Famer Nonito Donaire way back in November 2008 and has accounted for some top-quality fighters en route to a 16-fight winning streak since. Zolani Tete and John Riel Casimero were both stopped in five rounds by 'Babyface' and have boosted the form by going on to win world titles, the latter doing so in three weight divisions and beating Charlie Edwards along the way.

The champion is ranked number one by Ring Magazine at the weight and, avoided by most of his rivals, has done most of his winning on the road in recent years, making his achievements all the more impressive. Boxing on foreign soil again, he is the 4/6 favourite.

Edwards, who can be backed at 7/5, has been well-touted from the start of his career and has assembled a 15-0 record ahead of his big opportunity. He has blown hot and cold in that time but there has never been any doubting his ability and he's looked a maturing fighter in his last three outings, all of which he won well on the cards. His latest victory, over the tough Thomas Essomba in August, looks better form now given his opponent subsequently earned a draw with the unbeaten Thomas Patrick Ward up at super bantamweight.

This would be a big result for British boxing if Edwards can pull it off, but two things have to happen if he's to do so: the Croydon man has to raise his game to a level we haven't seen from him before, and Mthalane has to have aged notably since we last saw him.

However, both could very feasibly happen.

Mthalane is 38, which is old for a flyweight, and while he showed no signs of slowing down when stopping Akira Yaegashi in Japan last time, that was 17 months ago. It's a long layoff to overcome at his age. Edwards has the benefit of an outing during the pandemic and, at 25, is still very much progressing. He has been open about cutting corners with his diet when competing at super flyweight in the past but with a nutritionist now on board for this first title bout, he looks in much better physical shape, so improvement is expected.

It is not just their ages and level of experience that differ dramatically, as so do their styles. The champion brings constant pressure behind a tight guard with an accurate jab and unleashes thudding combinations when in range, especially the left hook. In stark contrast to that orthodox approach, Edwards is anything but. A switch hitter with his hands held low, he is all about reflexes and speed. His rapid mitts allow him to draw the lead from his opponent and counter effectively, while his dazzling footwork enables him to him spin out of range before they can reply. He constantly mixes up the range and angle of attack and is a very hard fighter to read as a result.

Many have tried to box and evade Mthalane and done well early doors, before the champion gradually closed the distance and caught up with them. That was the case against Yaegashi, who had plenty of success in the first half but began to be tagged more and more from the middle rounds before the referee was forced to intervene in the ninth.

That has to be Edwards' plan, to use his youth and speed to dart in and out with sharp shots and constantly be on the move with his nifty feet. Given that Mthalane has some ring rust to shake off, it's not hard to envisage the underdog building up a healthy lead by the halfway point. Whether he can keep up the stamina-sapping tactics is the big question, as he doesn't have the dig to deter the relentless South African, who will be walking him down all night long, so Edwards will need to be on the move for all 12 rounds.

If he holds his feet for too long then it could be all over in a flash, as the favourite carries serious power and it's a 6/4 chance that he registers KO win number 27 here. It is the same the price for EDWARDS TO WIN BY DECISION, and those look the two most likely outcomes, as it is hard to be confident about any visitor getting the nod from the judges against a British fighter on these shores on recent evidence.

With that in mind, I am going to side with a points win for Edwards, in the hope that Mthalane has slipped a little during his period of inactivity and in the belief this challenge will galvanise Edwards, who has been known to coast when things have been too easy in the past. If Edwards can bank the early rounds, his lead could be big enough to allow him to get on his bike down the home stretch and he could be very hard to catch if he has enough points in the bag.

• Click here to back Edwards to win by decision with Sky Bet

Conlan to land knockout blow

On the undercard, MICHAEL CONLAN can claim revenge for Ireland when he takes on Ionut Baluta, who bids for a hat-trick of upset victories over fighters from the Emerald Isle.

The Spanish-based Romanian outpointed Irish-born former title holder TJ Doheny in Dubai in March last year, before stopping Conlan's former Olympic teammate David Oliver Joyce in three rounds at this same venue six months later, so won't be fazed by being the underdog again at 100/30.

A best price of 1/3, Conlan had big expectations on his shoulders after a stellar amateur career and has steadily improved in assembling a perfect 14-fight record (eight early) as a professional, with a world title tilt expected later in the year. After gaining revenge for his Olympic Games robbery over Vladimir Nikitin with a wide-margin points success over the Russian, the 29-year-old from Belfast produced arguably his best performance yet when breaking down former title challenger Sofiane Takoucht for a 10th-round stoppage at the York Hall in August.

Baluta (14-2) has clearly improved a lot since his two early defeats and likes to stick and move, utilising his impressive height and reach for the weight. He has also never been stopped and will be full of confidence, but this would be an even bigger shock if he were to pull it off and it looks a step too far.

Guided by top coach Adam Booth, Conlan is developing into a top-class all-rounder with great variety and he is going to be a tough night's work for any super bantamweight in the world with his southpaw style.

The main criticism he has had thrown at him since turning over is that he lacks the power and killer instinct to finish the job, but there was more urgency about his work against Takoucht and he looked desperate to get the job done inside the distance. His smart work to the body took its toll on his French opponent in the end and it could be worth taking a chance on the same happening here, with a CONLAN STOPPAGE very temping at 3/1.

It's easy to see why a points win for the Irishman is odds-on (4/5 at best), but Baluta was a lot more gung-ho against Joyce and it could backfire if he tries the same on this occasion. Ultimately, Conlan looks a level above and that could result in him overwhelming his man before the final bell.

• Click here to back Conlan to win by knockout with Sky Bet

Posted at 1020 BST on 29/04/21

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