Billy Joe Saunders v Martin Murray odds, betting preview and tips

Recommended bets, Friday December 4

2pts double Saunders by decision & Tennyson in rounds 1-6 at 1.4/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

The curious case of Billy Joe Saunders continues on Friday night when he defends his WBO Super Middleweight title against Martin Murray at the Wembley Arena, live on Sky Sports.

Despite a record of 29-0 and being a two-weight world champion, we still don't really know just how good the outspoken champion really is as the big career-defining fights continue to elude him.

That was all meant to change in 2020 as he signed a lucrative deal with Matchroom on the back of stepping up to become a two-weight world champion, but this year sums up his career to date. With the golden ticket of a fight with Mexican star Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez all but signed for May, Covid hit and the megafight (and mega pay cheque) went up in smoke.

He now has his only outing of the year against a man he was originally due to fight in 2018 when it was a more appealing proposition to the fans and it has the feel of yet another 'marking time' fight.

If Saunders has yet to really fulfil his potential, Murray has certainly exceeded expectations in a career of humble beginnings and can count himself extremely unlucky not to have won a world title.

The likeable St Helens man has had four attempts at world glory and came closest in is first try, when the victim of a controversial decision in Germany as he drew with Felix Sturm in 2011.

Many thought he deserved the nod on the cards when set the very tall order of facing the bang in-form Sergio Martinez in Buenos Aires two years later, before he put up a valiant effort when stopped by a peak Gennady Golovkin in the 11th round and then dropped a split decision to Arthur Abraham on his return to Germany.

Finally he gets a shot on home soil, but it comes at the end of his career as a 38-year-old and he has a huge task on his hands. It is therefore no surprise to see quotes of 12/1 about Murray and Saunders rated an overwhelming favourite at 1/20, odds which would have been slightly less wide had this happened when first planned.

A tough man, Murray (39-5-1) has never been an easy night's work for anyone and won't go down without a scrap in what could well be his swansong.

He always comes to fight and isn't known for taking a backwards step, so will make sure Saunders needs to be on his game and that has not always been the case in the latter's career. You never quite know which version of the Hatfield native is going to turn up and while some contributing factors to his inconsistent performances have been out of his hands, plenty have been his own doing too.

The 31-year-old can balloon in weight, with motivation sometimes a struggle, and has entered the ring in far-from-peak condition on a few occasions.

However, Saunders at his best is a world-class operator and his performances in winning the WBO middleweight title against Andy Lee in 2015 and his dominant shut-out win in David Lemieux's back yard of Canada highlight that.

It is notable the favourite is back being trained by the Tibbs family, with Mark taking over head coach duties, as Saunders started his career with his father, Jimmy, and all available evidence so far suggests they have got their charge in good shape for this one.

If that is the case then it is hard to entertain the idea of an upset.

Murray, who does the basics well and has a solid defence, will look to press the action and has a good engine, but Saunders has the perfect antidote for that come-forward style with his silky skills from the southpaw stance.

An adept counter puncher with quicker hands and feet, expect him to be moving plenty and picking off the older man with scoring shots on a regular basis. Despite the lopsided odds, Saunders is as big as 5/2 to get the stoppage, which is down to him not being noted as a big puncher and Murray's renowned durability.

The champion is small for the weight and has yet to shine in two bouts at 168lb, so unless Murray has regressed markedly in the year he has been out of the ring, it is very hard to see past another points win for Saunders.

Five of his previous six world title fights have gone that way and the other went 11 rounds, which explains why it is a top price of 4/9 for the same outcome.

Can Tennyson make light work of O'Reilly?

The chief support sees James Tennyson attempt to continue his destructive run at lightweight against Josh O'Reilly in what should be an entertaining encounter while it lasts.

The Belfast puncher has looked a different animal since moving up on the back of his failed super featherweight world title challenge against Tevin Farmer in America, rattling off five straight stoppage wins and doing so in exciting fashion.

He's a heavy favourite (1/20) to continue that streak against the relatively unknown O'Reilly, who is fighting outside of his native Canada for the first time.

Tennyson was last seen impressing against Gavin Gwynne during Matchroom's Fight Camp series in the summer and the form of that sixth-round success reads well given that the Welshman had gone the distance with highly-regarded compatriot Joe Cordina last year.

This represents a big step up for the visitor, who is unbeaten in 16 outings, but the quality of those opponents leaves a lot to be desired and this first fight on foreign soil could prove a baptism of fire.

His opponent has mixed in much better company and is far more experienced, while Tennyson's recent outing is also a big plus as the visitor has been out the ring for over a year.

'The Assassin' will be looking to take aim at his target from the get-go, marching forward with his tight, compact defence and pulling the trigger when in range.

O'Reilly needs to earn his respect early doors in order to keep him off but just six early wins from 16, against limited opposition, suggests that he doesn't have the pop on his punches to do so.

He moves well enough and will look to box and keep this at range, but if he doesn't have the power to deter his man then Tennyson can plough forward at will and let his big shots go.

The in-form Northern Irishman can extend his sequence of stoppages to six but is 1/4 to do so, and it may be better to go with the 4/6 about him getting it done before halfway mark.

With three two-round knockouts to go with the Gwynne triumph in the sixth, this bet would have landed in four of his five fights at 135lb and he won't be hanging around again.

With value hard to find on a card packed with very heavy favourites, the angle in may be to double up Saunders on points and Tennyson in the first half, which is just shy of 6/4 (Paddy Power/Betfair) and rates a solid bet.

Posted at 0950 GMT on 03/12/20

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