Will Dean picks out his best bets for UFC Vegas 45, with the exciting Chris Daukaus a strong fancy for victory.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 45
3pts Chris Daukaus to win at 8/11 (General)
2pts Matt Sayles to win at evens (General)
2pts Gerald Meershaert to win by KO or Submission at 10/11 (General)
A passing of the torch
Off the back of a stellar pay-per-view offering, the UFC looks to close out the year in style with its final fight night card, UFC Vegas 45. CHRIS DAUKAUS makes his first appearance as a headliner as he faces Derrick Lewis, who returns to the cage after a disappointing title fight loss in August.
At this stage in The Black Beast’s career, UFC fans and fellow fighters know exactly what he brings to the cage. Often second best in terms of volume, technique, cardio and speed, Lewis makes up for all his shortcomings with an insane natural power that even his fellow 265lb competition cannot hope to match.
The new generation of modern MMA Heavyweights are beginning to evolve away from this one-dimensional style though, with fighters such as Ciryl Gane, Tom Aspinall and Daukaus himself leading the way. Instead of relying on brute strength, they are instead beginning to focus on speed, footwork and technical boxing to find their advantage.
Gane, the most successful of the three, put on a clinic in his title victory over Lewis just four months ago, with The Black Beast landing just 16 significant strikes before losing by a third round stoppage. The Frenchman has shown a clear blueprint for his fellow speed-based peers to follow, and Daukaus should certainly be able to replicate this on Saturday night.
Considering Lewis’ path to victory relies solely on him landing that knockout blow, it is surprising to see Daukaus as only a slight favourite in this bout. Gane was deemed a 1/3 favourite against The Black Beast, but Daukaus can easily look as comfortable as the now-Interim champion with a similarly patient approach. Lewis may be one of the more dangerous underdogs in the sport, but the value still sits comfortably with Daukaus to win at 8/11.
Sayles pitch
MATT SAYLES returns from a two year lay-off, having last been on the receiving end of the 2019 Submission of the Year, courtesy of a Twister from Bryce Mitchell. On Saturday night, Robo makes his return to the cage against a similar stylistic challenge, facing a dedicated grappler in Jordan Leavitt.
The Monkey King’s approach is unapologetically one-dimensional. Having made his professional debut in 2017 (with two years prior as an amateur), many would have expected his striking ability to have developed over the years. Instead, Leavitt continues to rely solely on his ability to get fights to the mat and impose his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ability.
Sayles is undoubtedly the much more well-rounded competitor of the two, and will have a significant advantage at the start of each round. The gap in striking ability between both fighters is so vast that Sayles will be able to commit all of his attention to preventing the takedown attempts, with the rest of the fight comfortably in his favour.
The betting line for this bout appears quite disrespectful to Sayles, with the memory of Mitchell’s dominant grappling and iconic submission victory still lingering in the minds of fans and oddsmakers alike. In reality, Thug Nasty’s performances since that bout have helped to emphasise that their fight was a reflection of his skillset and not Sayles’ weaknesses.
With significant advantages in cardio, striking ability, power and overall tenacity, I simply do not think Sayles should be the underdog in this fight. Some may cite the extended layoff as a cause for concern, but the 27-year-old could also look significantly improved from his time off. Having seen Leavitt’s ability in a 15 minute decision loss just six months ago, this feels like Robo’s fight to lose. At even-money, Sayles to win is possibly the best moneyline bet on the preliminaries.
Don't call it a comeback
GERALD MEERSHAERT’s 2020 ended with two consecutive knockout losses in under 90 seconds, with the latter going viral in promotion of the surging Khamzat Chimaev. Many believed that Meershaert’s best days were behind him and that retirement loomed large for the 47-fight veteran, as his durability was a key component to his success in MMA.
What a difference a year makes, as Meershaert currently sports a two-fight winning streak in 2021. With back-to-back submission victories as a betting underdog, GM3 has been on a remarkable comeback and actually appears to have developed his striking aptitude. With finishing ability in his hands to compliment his opportunistic submission game, he still remains an incredibly dangerous opponent for any fighter in the Middleweight division.
Fight week @eyesjudgemma pic.twitter.com/3Y0l5tpseB
— Gerald Meerschaert (@The_Real_GM3) December 15, 2021
Dustin Stoltzfus’ UFC career has so far been one to forget, with decisive losses to Kyle Daukaus (the younger brother of Saturday’s main-event competitor) and Rodolpho Viera leaving him 0-2 in the promotion. Despite clearly favouring his grappling ability over his striking, he was the inferior fighter on the mat on both occasions and struggled to utilise a plan B.
Things will likely get worse for Stoltzfus on Saturday night as Meershaert will once again be the superior grappler of the two, with an impressive ability to reverse position and find submissions from seemingly nowhere. GM3’s recent developments with his hands also make him dangerous on the feet, where he is already more skilful than either of Stoltzfus’ previous opponents.
Simply put, Stoltzfus is outgunned in every facet of this fight and is very unlikely to win outside of a surprise knockout. Whilst that will always be plausible against an opponent like Meershaert, Stoltzfus has won just two of his 16 professional fights by knockout, likely making his win condition even smaller. Meershaert has gone to a decision just five times in his lengthy 47-fight career, and is likely to round off an impressive 2021 with yet another finish. Backing MEERSHAERT TO WIN BY KO OR SUBMISSION at 10/11 is too appealing a price to ignore.
Odds correct at 1515 GMT (17/12/21)
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