MMA betting tips: UFC 276 preview and best bets

MMA betting tips: UFC 276

3pts Alexander Volkanovski to win by Decision at 13/10 (BetVictor)

2pts Sean O’Malley to win by Decision at 9/5 (BoyleSports)

2pts Donald Cerrone to win at 7/4 (Betfred, William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

UFC 276 features a star-studded card, headlined by fan favourite Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Looking to defend his belt for the fifth time, the New Zealander has been wary of the threat that challenger Jared Cannonier possesses, having earmarked him as a future threat to his crown back in 2019.

The co-main event features a trilogy fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, who have firmly solidified themselves as a cut above the rest of the Featherweight division. Both of their previous encounters resulted in razor thin decision victories for the Australian champion, but those scorecards are still fiercely debated by fans on social media.

Before the championships belts are on the line at the top of the card, fans will be treated to performances from some of the UFC’s hottest prospects and future Hall of Famers, with names such as Sean O’Malley, Robbie Lawler, Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller appearing on the card.

Three for Three

There have only been 14 trilogy fights in UFC history, and just two fighters have emerged from their sagas with a victory on each occasion. So much of martial arts is about analysing an opponent for their strengths and weaknesses, so the more time fighters spend in the cage with one another, the more intricate and technical the action is expected to become.

Considering the high-level that both ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI and Max Holloway performed at in their first two encounters, Saturday night’s co-main event could be one for the ages. Both fights saw both men land over 100 significant strikes on the another, with neither managing to establish a clear advantage.

Since their last meeting, Volkanovski went on to defend his title against both Brian Ortega and The Korean Zombie, where he put on career best performances on each occasion. It seems almost impossible to make the claim, given how technical and impressive he looked against Holloway – but Volkanovski may even have improved since the sequel.

This feels like ‘last chance saloon’ for Holloway, who will surely never get another fight for the Featherweight belt if he loses on Saturday night. The Hawaiian is more than aware of this, and his competitiveness desire for legacy has already seen him considering a step up to Lightweight, should he suffer a third defeat.

The improvements from Volkanovski and the pressure on Holloway lead me to believe this fight will have the same result as the last two, with the Australian getting his hand raised. Holloway is potentially one of the most durable fighters in UFC history, so a bet on Volkanovski to win by Decision is most appealing at 13/10.

• CLICK HERE to back Volkanovski to win by Decision with Sky Bet

Sugar to tee off

SEAN O’MALLEY is one of the UFC’s most promising prospects. With a wide fanbase that now transcends his performances inside the Octagon, Sugar Sean has repaid the faith that the UFC hype machine has invested in him. The 27-year-old has become aware of the pulling power he holds and has been vocal in the past about willingly accepting favourable fights, as the rate of pay is unaffected and the chance of a post-fight bonus is greater.

With a 15-1 professional record, O’Malley now steps up to face potentially his toughest test on paper, but this still feels like a favourable matchup for the colourful-haired striker. Pedro Munhoz is a hard hitter and a dangerous submission threat, but the sheer size discrepancy between the two certainly plays into Sugar Sean’s hands.

Munhoz’s attributes clearly lean more towards power than speed, but with five inches of height and six inches of reach in O’Malley’s favour, the Brazilian will struggle for opportunities to inflict damage or hunt for a submission. Instead, The American will be able to land straight shots from a safe distance, clearly outstriking Munhoz as he hopelessly marches forward.

To The Young Punisher’s credit, he is supremely durable, and will likely be able to absorb all of O’Malley’s best offence for the duration of the fight. Munhoz’s best path to victory would be to utilise leg kicks, which O’Malley has struggled with in the past, but the chances that these will end the fight are relatively low and will not be enough to secure a decision victory.

The UFC’s promotional powers have always shown O’Malley to be a devastating finisher, but most of these can really be attributed to inferior opposition or accumulative damage. The betting line for this fight seems to buy into this narrative, allowing for an appealing bet on O’Malley to win by Decision at 9/5. The flashy striker should be able to rack up strikes with ease, but Munhoz should be too tough for his own good.

• CLICK HERE to back O'Malley to win by Decision with Sky Bet

For the record books

After a frustrating few weeks that saw his hotly-anticipated bout with Joe Lauzon cancelled on two separate occasions, DONALD CERRONE will finally step into the Octagon against a similar stylistic challenge in fellow legend Jim Miller.

Regular readers may have noticed that I tipped Lauzon to finish Cerrone just two weeks ago, but the revised bout against Miller has a few small but significant differences that lie in Cowboy’s favour.

Like against Lauzon, Cerrone will be in danger of an early finish against Miller but can turn the tide as his opponent fades and he grows into the fight in its second half.

Due to the quick succession of cancelled bouts, as well as Miller stepping in on short notice, this bout will take place at Welterweight (15lbs heavier than the division that both men compete in). Cerrone had a successful stint at 170lbs back in 2016 and will most likely benefit from not depleting his body with a gruelling weight cut in the build-up to the fight. Miller, on the other hand, has never fought above the Lightweight division.

Despite having strung together knockout victories against inexperienced debuting fighters, Miller is still a grappler at heart. Unfortunately for A10, Cerrone has always had good takedown defence, having been grappled to the ground just twice in his last 16 fights. If Miller works hard to take down the bigger man, he will likely deplete his already questionable cardio to the point of no return, leaving him vulnerable for Cowboy to take over as the fight enters its second round.

Oddsmakers had Cerrone as a moderate favourite against Lauzon, but against a similar, arguably less dangerous opponent, Cowboy is now a significant underdog. For me, that presents a great opportunity to back Donald Cerrone to win at a great 7/4 underdog price.

• CLICK HERE to back Cerrone with Sky Bet
  
  Posted at 1220 BST on 30/06/22

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