MMA expert Will Dean has been in fine form of late, and he's back to take a detailed look at UFC 273 on Saturday.
MMA betting tips: UFC 273
2pts Tecia Torres to beat Mackenzie Dern at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt Tecia Torres to beat Mackenzie Dern by Decision at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Khamzat Chimaev to beat Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO in rounds 2 or 3 at 7/2 (Paddy Power)
KO for Khamzat
Prior to his unforgettable UFC debut, KHAMZAT CHIMAEV's regional performances showed a glimpse of the star power he has had all along. Tipping the Swedish-born Chechen to finish Wales’ John Phillips at 11/10 seems like daylight robbery in hindsight, especially considering Borz currently sits as a 1/5 favourite against Gilbert Burns, the third best Welterweight in the UFC.
Many a strong opinion has been shared regarding the steep betting lines for Saturday night’s main card, but Chimaev’s is potentially the most outlandish. The reality is that, despite his dominance in the cage so far, we simply have not seen enough of Borz against high-level competition.
Burns was on the verge of winning the Welterweight title from Kamaru Usman just last year, so to see him being given roughly a 20% chance of winning against a fighter with 10 professional bouts seems ridiculous.
Nevertheless, I still expect Chimaev to win this fight. The difference in size and strength is likely to be the difference maker, as both men’s ventures in different weight classes have seen them travel in opposite directions.
Burns’ physique seemed to fit right in at 155lbs, whilst Chimaev was still physically imposing at 185lbs. Since Borz’s last UFC appearance, he was most recently seen ragdolling 6'1" Middleweight Jack Hermansson in a grappling tournament, which heavily implies he will have no problem imposing his will against Burns.
Chimaev will still have work to do once this fight does hit the mat though, as Burns is one of the most skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grapplers in MMA today. Across 24 professional bouts, he has never been submitted, which will likely prompt the Swede to opt for a finish via strikes instead.
The Wolf is here! 🐺@KChimaev getting his fight week portraits ahead of #UFC273! 📸 pic.twitter.com/ziM3aUj6P6
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) April 6, 2022
Burns’ defensive awareness on the mat should see him avoid danger in the early goings, but the exhausting grappling threat will eventually take its toll on Durinho. After a composed and assertive first round, look for Chimaev to score a TKO victory in the latter half of the fight.
Backing CHIMAEV TO WIN BY KO IN ROUNDS 2 OR 3 at 4/1 seems like a rare beacon of value in an otherwise confusing night for betting.
Torres to Tecia a lesson
After a disappointing performance in her first main event fight, Mackenzie Dern’s ceiling seems to have been found.
Not all fighters are able to rise to the occasion when title contention is on the cards, but the 29-year-old’s performance against Marina Rodriguez demonstrated to many that her grappling-heavy style will not work against the division’s elite.
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu has been a reliable and potent weapon for many of MMA’s greats, but it is seldom useful without other core fighting fundamentals.
Dern has proven on countless occasions that she can submit any opponent on the mat, but her inability to drag fights into her world has become apparent in her current UFC stint. Across more than hour of fight time inside the Octagon, Dern has completed 0.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, making the challenge of staying upright a far easier task than it should be for her opponents.
Against a faster fighter like TECIA TORRES, Dern is likely to once again be forced to fight on her feet. If that is the case, then The Tiny Tornado has much more fluid and educated boxing skills, alongside good footwork that will keep her circling away from the fence.
Torres has only ever lost to the Strawweight division’s elite talent, including the four most recent champions and a future title contender. All of these losses came back-to-back, which seems to have really skewed the public’s perception of the 32-year-old. Nevertheless, with a relatively simple path to victory in this fight, I think she’s the side to back on Saturday night.
Oddsmakers opened Torres as the slight favourite in this fight, which I felt should have been steeper. Since then, public money has been steadily backing Dern, leading to a much better price on the Tiny Tornado.
It can be a little unsettling going against the grain, but backing TORRES TO WIN at evens is certainly the most appealing outright bet on the main card. For an extra wager, backing TORRES TO WIN BY DECISION at 13/8 is also worth a flutter, as Torres has finished just two of her 18 professional opponents, winning 12 decisions.
Posted at 1500 GMT on 07/04/22
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