Boxing expert Chris Oliver is back with two bets for the eagerly-anticipated bout between Leigh Wood and Mauricio Lara on Saturday night.
Boxing betting tips: Wood v Lara
2pts Leigh Wood to beat Mauricio Lara at 9/4 (Sporting Index)
1pt Leigh Wood to win in rounds 7-12 at 10/1 (William Hill)
There should be fireworks in Nottingham on Saturday as LEIGH WOOD takes on Mexican danger man Mauricio Lara.
Social media was full of criticism when Matchroom and broadcast partner DAZN announced their fight schedule for the first third of 2023, along with a notable price rise, but one thing the fans all agreed on was that this first headline bout of the year should be a cracker.
Wood could easily have defended his WBA featherweight title against a less dangerous foe, so deserves full credit for heading straight for the fire here and facing the man everyone else seems to be avoiding.
Lara (25-2-1) earned his fearsome reputation when, almost two years ago to the day, he came to the UK and caused a huge upset with his one-sided hammering of the previously unbeaten Josh Warrington. A 14/1 outsider that night, the visitor hurt Warrington early, dropped him heavily in the fourth and finally got the stoppage in the ninth round.
The Mexican is 4/9 (as short as 4/11) to make another successful visit to these shores, but that is based solely on the Warrington win and the champion should arguably be shorter than 9/4.
As brutal and dominant as the Warrington win was, Lara may have been overhyped as a result. Warrington has admitted he took the huge underdog lightly that night and struggled to get up for the behind-closed-doors contest, while he was also returning from a 16-month layoff and subsequently hasn't looked anywhere near the fighter he once was.
Lara has questions to answer
We learnt nothing from their rematch, which was halted in the second round after a gruesome gash over Lara's eye caused by the head of Warrington, before Lara only did what was expected of him when stopping the lightly-regarded Emilio Sanchez and Jose Sanmartin in three rounds apiece.
So, while Lara clearly carries serious power and has plenty of potential, we still don't really know how good he is, and he's been priced up mainly on reputation here.
Wood (26-2) has been one of the biggest success stories of British boxing in the last two years and arguably the most improved male fighter during that time.
Since dropping a narrow decision to 'Jazza' Dickens in February 2020, he has stopped the previously unbeaten Reece Mould in nine rounds, caused a big shock of his own when winning this title against Xu Can (TKO 12) and then knocked Michael Conlan out of the ring in the final round of their fight of the year contender last March.
By insisting on this fight, Wood and his coach Ben Davison have clearly seen flaws in Lara they think they can exploit. Having made a habit out of upsetting the odds, can they do it again here?
Wood was dropped and badly hurt in the first round by Conlan, so many have made the point that if Lara catches him with the same shot, then there will be no coming back for the local man. While this is probably true, Conlan was advertised as being feather-fisted and Wood will have a lot more respect for Lara's power, so is likely to be more cautious early doors.
A slick southpaw with fast hands, Conlan was also all wrong for Wood stylistically and the latter should be more comfortable with Lara's style.
Lara will press the fight from the get-go, as he stalks his prey and looks to unload venomous hooks from all sorts of angles. However, as dangerous as they are, he does leave himself open when throwing those wide shots and can often be very crude in his wild approach. Wood, who is bigger and taller, is the more technically sound and could make full use of his superior skills.
Wood has the tools to pull off the upset
A very capable switch-hitter, Wood boxed beautifully when beating Xu Can to win the title, as he maintained the distance behind his jab and caught the Chinese visitor with hard counters on the way in. Those sort of tactics could prove very effective for Wood again here and he has the power to not only deter the advances of Lara, but also hurt him.
Despite prevailing in his tear-up with Sanchez 11 months ago, Lara looked very hittable and appeared to be in serious trouble before finding an equaliser in the dying seconds of round three.
All that being said, it's not to say I don't rate Lara and if this is fought at close quarters then odds of 8/13 for him to win by stoppage could well be justified in some style. However, I just feel the layers have shown a bit too much respect for the Mexican and maybe too much has been read into his victory over Warrington.
After all, we still don't know how Lara's chin will stand up to a world-level puncher and he has also been hurt to the body in the past, an area Wood is noted for testing. Wood also has home advantage and that counted for a lot when the 9,000-strong crowd roared their man to victory against Conlan.
Wood may have to survive an early storm or two, but if he can weather those then Lara, who has become used to having things all his own way of late, could begin to unravel. While he can't afford any lapses in concentration, the more-rounded Wood has the size, skills and power to implement his gameplan and prevail against the dangerous, yet unproven, Mexican.
WOOD TO WIN IN ROUNDS 7-12 would have been a successful bet on each of his last three outings and that outcome makes appeal at a juicy 10/1.
If Lara delivers on his undoubted potential, then this could go wrong for Wood backers in spectacular fashion, but the value appears to be with the home fighter in a contest that looks closer than the odds suggest to me. Drama is the only thing that looks certain here, but hopefully it will be the kind of drama that sends the local fans home happy.
Posted at 1000 GMT on 17/02/23
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