Leigh Wood and Michael Conlan will lock horns in Nottingham on Saturday night, and Chris Oliver fancies the Belfast boxer to come out on top.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday March 12
2pts Michael Conlan by decision at 11/10 (William Hill)
A huge two weeks for the featherweight division in the UK gets underway at Nottingham on Saturday night, live on DAZN.
Josh Warrington and Kiko Martinez rematch for the IBF world title in a fortnight, but first Leigh Wood makes the first defence of his WBA belt against MICHAEL CONLAN this weekend.
It's a fascinating bout and one that few would have seen coming even a year ago, as the pair have taken very different paths to this big event which takes place in front of a sold-out crowd of 9,000 people.
Having spent most of his career on small-hall shows and undercards, Wood never seemed likely to be headlining a high-profile bill like this in his hometown, especially after he lost a decision to 'Jazza' Dickens in February 2020.
However, after switching trainer to Ben Davidson and returning with a ninth-round stoppage of Reece Mould a year later, he was handed a shot at champion Xu Can at short notice last summer.
If people were surprised by Wood getting the opportunity, they were then shocked by his performance as the big underdog outworked and outboxed the Chinese visitor before stopping him in the 12th round. At 33 years old, Wood had finally arrived.
Conlan's journey could hardly have been more different. A decorated amateur who picked up World, European and Commonwealth gold, he captured the headlines with his middle-finger salute to the judges when on the wrong end of an awful decision in the semi-finals of the Beijing Olympics in 2016.
He swiftly signed with US promotional giants Top Rank before making his professional debut at Madison Square Garden, where he was led to the ring by Conor McGregor, and looked destined for stardom in the paid ranks.
However, it is fair to say his career hasn't taken off the way his American promoters expected when they snapped him up for what won't have been small change. He remains unbeaten after 16 outings, but it has taken five years to get a world title challenge and he has flattered to deceive for much of that time.
That said, there is no doubting his ability and the skilful Belfast native finally produced the performance we knew he was capable of last time out. Taking on former world title holder TJ Doheny in front of a big crowd at the Falls Park, Conlan gave his compatriot a boxing lesson and dropped his man en route to a wide-margin points success.
So, with both men arriving on the back of career-best performances, this is set up very nicely and it's not an easy fight to call. Despite fans and pundits being split down the middle on this one, Conlan is a clear favourite at 4/7 and Wood can be backed at 6/4. That will surprise many, given the latter is the champion and has home advantage, but the challenger has all the pedigree and reputation so was always going to start as favourite.
They share similar traits in that they both switch hit very effectively and work well to the body, but there is no doubt Wood is the puncher here. He has boxed on the front foot more recently, with Davidson keen for his man to make more use of his power and has the heavy enough hands to get the stoppage (5/1) if he can land clean on Conlan's chin. However, that is no easy task given the skills of the Northern Irishman.
As you would expect for a man with his amateur achievements, Conlan is well schooled and technically very good. He has good balance and controls the distance very well, while he has excellent timing and a very effective jab. His upper body movement makes him hard to hit flush and that could well negate the power of Wood.
The one thing Conlan does lack is pop on his punches and it's hard to see him winning inside the distance (9/2), so the challenger to win by decision at 11/10 is the obvious bet if you are in his corner. It is 8/15 (short as 4/11) that this goes the distance and that suggests we will see more boxing than brawling, which would play into Conlan's hands.
As is often the case when so much is at stake, this could well turn into a cagey affair and a chess match is exactly what Conlan wants. His superior footwork and skills should give him the upper hand if this is boxed at mid and long range, with the challenger also boasting the longer reach and being capable of boxing on the back foot as well.
Another factor in Conlan's favour is we know he handles the big occasion well. He has had a very high profile in his homeland for a long time now and is used to the pressure that comes with that, with his performance in front of a big outdoor crowd in Belfast last time confirming that he thrives on the big stage.
As for Wood, he hasn't been under the spotlight this much before and the expectation of fighting in front of large home support can turn into a negative if he doesn't cope with it well. We saw that with Liam Williams in Cardiff against Chris Eubank Jr last month when the Welshman buckled under the weight of expectation from his home fans early doors.
Wood won't give up his title easily and would be favourite if a fight breaks out, but a boxing match is expected and that is why Conlan is fancied to win by decision.
He has a habit of boxing to the level of the challenge in front of him and he can rise to this one to maintain his unbeaten record, which will set him up perfectly to take on the winner of Warrington and Martinez.
Posted at 1135 GMT on 11/03/22
How to watch Wood v Conlan
This clash will be broadcast on DAZN from 7:00pm with the main event expected to begin around 10.00pm.
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