Boxing betting tips: Lawrence Okolie predictions and best bets for Sky Sports return

Boxing betting tips: Saturday March 25

2pts Lawrence Okolie to win in rounds 7-12 at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Andrew Cain to win by decision at 16/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt David Benavidez to win in rounds 7-12 at 8/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

• CLICK HERE to back Okolie, Cain, Benavidez treble

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

All eyes are on LAWRENCE OKOLIE as he begins a new chapter of his career on Saturday night.

Having been guided to world title glory by promotor Eddie Hearn, Okolie has gone through a messy breakup with Matchroom over the last year and now makes his debut for Ben Shalom’s Boxxer outfit at the Manchester Arena.

He has also split from coach Shane McGuigan and the boxing world will be watching closely as he defends his WBO cruiserweight title against mandatory challenger David Light.

The move also sees Okolie (18-0) return to Sky Sports, which he claims was a big factor in his decision to cut ties with Hearn, and the 2016 Olympian is widely expected to justify odds of 1/8 by retaining his belt against Light. Perhaps just as important as the victory, though, is how he looks in getting the job done, because critics will be out in force to claim he has made the wrong move if he struggles on his return to action.

The improvements the champion made under McGuigan were marked and while teaming up with ‘Sugar Hill’ Steward, who also trains Tyson Fury, is hardly a backwards step, it will be interesting to see how well that new partnership plays out in the ring.

Lights out late on

Light arrives from New Zealand with a perfect 20-fight record (12 KOs) and will be brimming with confidence following a career-best win over the previously unbeaten Brandon Glanton in December. That victory in the US showed not only that he is capable of winning on the road, but also that he has plenty of heart, as he narrowly prevailed on the cards in that tear-up at close quarters, despite being dropped in the last session of that 10-rounder.

The challenger fought well on the inside that night and that is where Okolie is least comfortable, with his lack of ability to fight ‘in the pocket’ exposed in the past, so Light could have success if he is able to get past the long levers of the champion. However, that is easier said than done as the 6’5” Okolie boasts a huge reach advantage, and he has become increasingly adept at making the most of that notable wingspan in recent outings.

He was brilliant in breaking down and stopping former champion Krystof Glowacki inside six rounds when claiming the belt two years ago, albeit against a faded version of the Polish veteran. Dilan Prasovic was then despatched with ease in the third round of Okolie’s his first defence, and he clearly carries word-class power when given the room in which to detonate those bombs.

However, he was made to work much harder by Michael Cieslak when last seen 13 months ago, when the latter climbed off the canvas to ask a few questions of Okolie and make sure the champion really had to earn his decision victory.

While Light is no mug and will fancy his chances of pulling off an upset at 13/2, he will be in trouble if Okolie finds his range early doors and it’s just 2/5 for the Hackney man to record the 15th knockout of his career.

However, after a long absence and all that has gone on out of the ring, Okolie is entitled to be a little rusty and, with 2/1 available for both the champion to win in the first half and second half of the fight, I am much more in favour of the latter outcome.

Light has boxed three times since we last saw Okolie and that momentum could help him to start brightly, but this is also his first 12-rounder and that may well tell as the fight goes on. I fancy Okolie to warm into the fight on his return from a layoff and once that rust has been shaken off, the favourite can begin find a home for those big shots and secure a stoppage somewhere after the halfway mark.

• CLICK HERE to back Okolie in rounds 7-12 with Sky Bet

Cain looks able

There is also live action on BT Sports from Telford, where ANDREW CAIN faces the toughest test of his promising career so far against Ionut Baluta.

The unbeaten Cain (1/4) has caught the eye with his exciting style and power on his way to knocking out nine of his 10 victims to date, with both of his wins last year coming in the first round. He has yet to go beyond six rounds and is just 4/6 to gain another inside-the-distance victory.

However, this is a notable step up in class and Baluta, who can be backed at 9/2, has mixed in much hotter company in compiling a record of 15-4. The Romanian holds wins over former IBF champion TJ Doheny and Olympian David Oliver Joyce from 2020, while he also pushed subsequent world title challenger Michael Conlan to a hard-fought decision in 2021 and upset Brad Foster when beating him on the cards last year.

That said, he was outboxed by Liam Davies when outpointed in November and Cain, who can use his short, stocky frame to make the taller Baluta miss, is expected to have too much for the underdog.

Balta has never been stopped, though, and knows how to navigate his way through 10 rounds very well, so it would be a huge statement from Cain if he could halt the visitor. With that in mind, the eye is drawn to the 16/5 available for the favourite to prevail via a decision.

Cain hits hard and can do damage if he lands clean, but the experience and durability of Baluta could help him make it to the final bell here.

• CLICK HERE to back Cain to win by decision

Late show in Vegas

The fight of the weekend is across the pond as DAVID BENAVIDEZ and Caleb Plant settle their bad blood in a mouth-atering super middleweight contest in Las Vegas.

UK fans can catch it live on FITE TV as the two Americans battle it out for the chance to face undisputed 168lb king ‘Canelo’ Alvarez next.

Plant is looking for a rematch with the Mexican champion after losing his IBF strap to him 16 months ago. ‘Sweethands’ was competitive early doors before being broken down and stopped by Canelo in the 11th round. A similar fate may beckon for him this weekend, with the unrelenting Benavidez fancied to wear his man down in the later rounds.

Unbeaten in 26 fights (23 early), Benavidez has twice held the WBC belt and lost it out of the ring on each occasion, first failing a drugs test for cocaine, and then missing weight in 2020.

However, he is a serious talent when on his game and the biggest test of his career should sharpen his focus here. He looked rejuvenated and as good as ever when battering former middleweight champion David Lemieux in three rounds last time out and, still only 26, we may not have seen the best of him just yet.

With his smart footwork and quick hands, it easy to envisage Plant (3/1) scoring well from the outside in the early rounds and having success with his sharp jab.

However, Benavidez doesn’t know how to take a backwards step and will be constantly marching forward from the opening bell. This becomes mentally and physically exhausting for his opponents and Plant, who has shown a tendency to slow down from halfway, is unlikely to be an exception to that rule.

Huge for the weight and with a good engine, Benavidez also has heavy hands and good variety with his shots, and that can prove a nightmare for Plant when the latter’s output begins to drop. The relentless aggression of Benavidez can see him become the second man to stop Plant, somewhere between rounds 7-12 at 8/5, and set up a blockbuster clash with Canelo.

• CLICK HERE to back Benavidez in rounds 7-12

Posted at 1245 GMT on 24/03/23

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.