Boxing betting tips: Josh Kelly v Gabriel Alberto Corzo live on DAZN

Boxing betting tips: Kelly v Corzo

2pts Josh Kelly to win by decision at 13/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The rebuild of JOSH KELLY continues on Saturday night as he takes on Gabriel Alberto Corzo at the Vertu Motors Arena in Newcastle, live on DAZN.

This will be Kelly's fourth fight since his humbling defeat to David Avanesyan, following which he didn't box for 16 months and was ditched by Eddie Hearn's Matchroom promotional outfit.

Corzo arrives with a perfect record of 18-0 but the WBO Super Welterweight Latino champion has yet box outside of his native Argentina and he can be backed at 8/1, with Kelly a best price of 1/12.

Following his appearance at the 2016 Olympics, Kelly made rapid headway in the professional ranks and was having only his 13th fight when tackling the formidable Avanesyan for his European welterweight title. Kelly started promisingly, with his trademark fast hands and flashy combinations scoring well, but the aggressive champion couldn't be deterred, and the challenger quickly unravelled in sixth session, in which he was dropped twice before the towel came in.

There was no shame in losing to Avanesyan, who has since gone on to challenge the brilliant Terence Crawford, but the manner in which he folded prompted questions aplenty of about his gas tank and his heart.

With weight-making struggles blamed for his stamina issues, the Sunderland native has returned at 154lb and rattled off three wins in his new weight division, with his points victory over Troy Williamson undoubtedly the pick of them. In what was billed as a 50-50 British title scrap, Kelly dominated from the first bell to the last, as he tagged the champion with ease and made the previously unbeaten Williamson look slow with dazzling speed of hand and foot.

Kelly has silky skills in abundance and, with his hands by his side, he is brilliant to watch when in full flow, as he uses his excellent reflexes to avoid shots and fires back spiteful counters from all angles. However, he can be caught when tired and his reactions slow a little, while he can also spend too much time on the ropes when he needs a breather.

With an extra 7lb to play with now, Kelly appeared to do the 12 rounds much better last time and looks to be aiming for a crack at the WBO title, with a number two ranking to his name with that organisation and Corzo placed at number nine.

However, how Corzo has been given such a lofty position is questionable, with plenty of men with losing records on his CV and no victims of note either. His best victory to date was probably when last seen in November against Jose Hugo Acevedo (14.3-2), who was outpointed over 10 rounds but did have success early on.

With just three stoppages from his 18 wins, the visitor doesn't appear to have the power to really trouble Kelly and it is very hard to see the latter being outboxed here, especially on the back of a career-best performance. Kelly's impressive showing against Williamson, which quietened some of the doubters who had been very loud since he was stopped by Avanesyan, should have been the springboard back to the big-time, but Corzo feels like a step backwards and, on the face it, there is no jeopardy here for the local favourite.

That lack of danger could see this go longer than it should, as Kelly is at his best when faced with a threat, as we saw against Williamson, rather than when he has little to fear, which was the case when he laboured to a point success again Lucas Bastillo on his penultimate outing.

Similar to his compatriot Corzo, Bastillo had also never boxed outside of Argentina prior to fighting to Kelly, who was odds-on to get the job done inside the distance and yet that never looked like happening as the latter cruised through the 10 rounds in second gear. There is every chance the same could happen this weekend.

If the Kelly that took Williamson to school turns up, then the 4/5 about an inside-the-distance victory for the local man would look very big indeed. However, we have been here before with Kelly, when everything is set for him to shine and, instead, he dances his way to a boring POINTS VICTORY.

• CLICK HERE to back Kelly to win on points with Sky Bet

Four of Kelly's last five victories have come via the scorecards, and he is also yet to prove he has really carried his power up to this higher weight class. So, having been bitten by taking short odds about a Kelly stoppage in the past, I prefer the 6/4 and upwards about him registering decision win.

As you would expect from a South American, Corzo will likely be coming forward and looking to press the action from the get-go, which will play into the hands of the counter-punching Kelly. That said, if the favourite doesn't get rid of his man early, then Kelly could revert to his low output style to keep enough in the tank for the later rounds and there could be a feeling of déjà vu about it all.

Posted at 1210 BST on 14/07/23

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