Boxing betting tips: DAZN action featuring Michael Conlan and Ryan Garcia

Boxing betting tips: Saturday December 2

1pt Michael Conlan to win by decision at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Ryan Garcia to win in rounds 7-12 at 9/4 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Out of the many similarities between MICHAEL CONLAN and Jordan Gill, the biggest is that the loser of their clash in Belfast on Saturday can say goodbye to headlining big events like this.

Once touted as being among the brightest prospects in UK boxing, both men arrive here on the back of a second knockout defeat and with their future at this sort of level very much on the line.

The expectations of Conlan were sky-high when he turned professional, having won the world amateur championships in 2015 and was then robbed of a gold medal a year later at the Olympics Games in Rio thanks to some awful judging.

He seemed destined for world titles in the paid ranks, and all was going to plan until he met Leigh Wood for the WBA featherweight belt in March 2022, when he boxed brilliantly before being knocked out in the last round of their Fight of the Year. The Belfast native bounced back with two good wins before his second world title tilt against Luis Alberto Lopez in May, when he was sparked out in the fifth round of a contest he was struggling in from early doors.

Gill gained plenty of admirers in winning his first 23 outings and was tipped for big things, only to face a rude awakening when beaten up and halted in eight rounds by Mario Enrique Tinoco in a big shock in 2019. The rebuild saw him capture the European title against Karim Guerfi last year but the wheels came off against when he lost inside four rounds to big-punching veteran Kiko Martinez just over 13 months ago.

They both have plenty to prove and have opted for a change in trainer ahead of this crossroads bout, with Conlan leaving Adam Booth to team up with renowned Cuban Pedro Diaz and Gill parting ways with Dave Coldwell, which adds another layer of intrigue to an already fascinating contest.

Given the one-sided beatings both men took last time out, this is likely to be decided by who has the most left in the tank and we won’t know that until the first bell rings. However, the odds compilers are in no doubt that the answer to that question is Conlan, who is a best price of 1/7, and Gill can be backed at 6/1.

It is easy to see where the layers are coming from, as Conlan has home advantage and has mixed in better company in challenging for world honours. While he was unsuccessful in those attempts, we shouldn’t forget just how close he came to beating Wood last year and how well he boxed for most of that contest.

Recent collateral form also points to Conlan, who knocked out the aforementioned Guerfi inside a round, just 10 months after Gill was behind and in all sorts of trouble against the Frenchman before somehow finding a Hail Mary to win the fight in the ninth.

Conlan didn’t have anywhere near as much success in his second world title bid against Lopez, but the champion looked so much bigger that night and Conlan just couldn’t keep him off, while Lopez was also very unorthodox and hard to read.

None of those factors should be a problem for Conlan this weekend as Gill represents a very different test to Lopez, and one the favourite should be much more familiar with. Gill is a skilful operator with nice feet and a good jab, so will be looking to box Conlan and that should be music to the latter’s ears.

Also a talented slickster, Conlan is an adept switch-hitter with fast hands and moves very well himself. So, I expect this to be more a boxing match, rather than the kind of brawl both men were involved in last time out, and Conlan must be the pick if that is the case.

It’s 4/7 not to go the distance and while they are both vulnerable around the whiskers these days, neither of them are noted for their punch power and I see this going deep into the scheduled 12 rounds. That leads me to believe the 2/1 about Conlan winning by decision is much better value than him getting the job done by stoppage at 4/5 and I fancy the local man to prevail on the scorecards.

A layoff of over a year is a concern for Gill and, when both at their best, Conlan is the better boxer out of the two, so he gets the nod despite the questions marks over what each man has left after being stopped in punishing fashion last time out.

• CLICK HERE to back Conlan by decision with Sky Bet

Garcia to face proper workout

The action on DAZN continues in the early hours of Sunday morning as RYAN GARCIA makes his eagerly-anticipated return against Oscar Duarte in Houston.

Garcia was last seen in a huge event against Gervonta Davis in April and while he was stopped by a body shot in the seventh round that night, the fact he was willing to put his unbeaten record on the line against the very best must be commended, and he can get back on the winning trail this weekend.

It’s no surprise that he is only 1/4 to do so, as Duarte is a notable step down from Davis, but the 7/2 underdog can punch, and the favourite will need to be on his game here.

Duarte has halted 21 of his 26 victims and should probably be unbeaten in 27, as his sole loss via split decision against Adrian Estrella in February 2019 was very contentious, to say the least. He will come to fight and has looked durable up to now, but the company he has been keeping has been a level or two below world class and that may show against an elite fighter like Garcia.

Dropping back to down lightweight looks a good move for Garcia, who recorded impressive stoppage victories over Francisco Fonseca (KO1) and Luke Campbell (TKO7) when last competing at the 135lb limit.

With lightning-fast hands and fight-ending power, especially with his famous left hook, Garcia is fancied to make the gulf in class tell eventually and justify odds of 8/11 about him winning inside the distance. However, Duarte could make him work harder for it than the odds suggest and the 9/4 for Garcia to win in the second half of the fight looks the way to go.

• CLICK HERE to back Garcia in rounds 7-12 with Sky Bet

Posted at 1145 GMT on 01/12/23

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