Chris Oliver looks ahead to Anthony Joshua's fight with Robert Helenius, live on DAZN this weekend.
Boxing betting tips: Joshua v Helenius
2pts Anthony Joshua to win in rounds 5-8 at 2/1 (General)
2pts Filip Hrgovic to win in rounds 1-6 at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Boxing certainly knows how to bring you back down to earth with a bump.
With fans still on a high after Naoya Inoue and Terence Crawford both staking their claim to be pound-for-pound number one with brilliant performances in the space of five days, it was revealed last Saturday that Dillian Whyte had failed yet another drugs test and his rematch with Anthony Joshua at London's O2 Arena this weekend was off.
The good news is the main event has been saved and 'AJ' now faces Robert Helenius, with the show no longer being a pay-per-view for UK fans another bonus.
There is no doubt this isn't as attractive as Joshua and Whyte settling their long-standing rivalry in a domestic crossroads fight with their big-fight futures on the lines, but at least Helenius has some sort of credibility and is about as good as we could have hoped for at such short notice.
Joshua v Helenius: Big Fight details
- Date and venue: Saturday August 12 at London's O2
- Main event ringwalks (approx): 2200 BST (undercard begins at 1800 BST)
- TV Channel: DAZN. Not on PPV anymore but fans must sign up to DAZN for £9.99 per month.
- Radio: talkSPORT
Perhaps we should be thankful that the rumours weren't true of the replacement being Derek Chisora or Gerald Washington, who clash on the undercard in a 50-50 contest between two over-the-hill veterans. However, Washington did knock out Helenius in 2019, which tells you AJ should really be doing a number on the visitor here and anything less than an emphatic victory will be considered a bad result for Joshua.
An 11/1 chance here, Helenius (32-4) was a top amateur and the 39-year-old has been around the game a long time, while a third-round stoppage in his comeback last Saturday should also mean he arrives in shape. He did rebound from that Washington defeat to knock out previously unbeaten Polish prospect Adam Kownacki in 2020, before repeating the dose in the rematch following year, and those upset victories earned him crack at Deontay Wilder last October.
To his credit, 'The Nordic Nightmare' came to win and that may have been his biggest mistake, as he walked onto Wilder's famous right hand at the end of first round and was knocked out cold.
That recent form with Wilder may have helped Helenius get the gig against Joshua, who has agreed terms with the US knockout artist for a showdown in Saudi Arabia this winter and the direct recent comparison of how he fares against their common foe on Saturday ties into the narrative of that upcoming blockbuster.
However, Joshua must win first and while a best price of 1/14 suggests that it should be a formality, we all remember what happened the last time AJ faced a late replacement when his original opponent returned a positive test. Andy Ruiz Jr stepped in for the disgraced Jarrell Miller in June 2019 and shocked the world by stopping Joshua in round seven.
Helenius isn't as 'live' an underdog as Ruiz, but Joshua hasn't been the same since that first defeat of his career and he will be under the microscope again following a lacklustre performance against Jermaine Franklin last time. Widely expected to dispatch of the American who had surprisingly pushed Whyte to a close decision, Joshua also went the full 12 rounds with Franklin and, although the result was wide on the scorecards, the manner of the Watford man's victory attracted plenty of criticism.
Once all about seek and destroy, this latest version of Joshua was tentative when throwing and very reluctant to exchange, with this safety-first approach only adding fuel to the fire of his growing army of detractors.
In his defence, that was his first fight under new coach Derrick James and that could have played a part in the performance, while Franklin is also a cagey sort with a good chin and his desire to let Joshua lead before countering may also have been a factor for the winner's hesitancy.
When the news of Whyte's latest faux pas came to light, there must have been a huge temptation for Team Joshua scrap this fight all together and go straight into the Wilder contest given how lucrative that will be. However, facing Wilder on the back of that mediocre Franklin performance would have been far from ideal and AJ needs another outing before taking on the big-punching American in the Middle East.
With that in mind, it's easy to easy why Helenius was chosen. He not only fits the bill in terms of a being (just about) a credible opponent, but the 6'6" Finn has similar dimensions to Wilder and, with nothing to lose, he is unlikely to be as negative as Franklin was in this same arena four months ago.
If Helenius comes out on the front foot like he did against Wilder, then Joshua may be forced out of his shell early on and that would make the favourite to win in rounds 1-4 a real runner at 7/4. However, let's not forget AJ is still a fighter short on confidence right now and we're unlikely to see him take too many risks in the opening rounds.
After all, he has lost three of his last six bouts and, with his chin and gas tank exposed by Ruiz, he then went through 24 rounds of mental frustrations in his back-to-back points defeats to master technician Oleksandr Usyk. If there are still demons in his head from those losses, the Franklin fight will have done little to quieten them, and he desperately needs a confidence booster on Saturday night.
Both as an amateur and professional, Joshua has tended to do well against tall, upright Europeans and Helenius could be the perfect man to shine against for the local man. A late change of opponent is never ideal, but while Whyte's style is unorthodox and unpredictable, Helenius does things by the book a lot more and shouldn’t be hard to prepare for tactically.
For Joshua to reignite serious global interest in a duel with Wilder then he needs a big performance and a knockout, which is a top price of 1/4 and it will be considered somewhat of a disaster if Joshua has to settle for a points success (5/1). Obviously, not as disastrous as losing, but there's little chance of Helenius getting a decision (40/1) over here, so he'll probably have to get the stoppage and even the 14/1 about that outcome isn't tempting.
I expect Joshua to start patiently behind his jab and look to work his way into the fight, just as he did against Franklin. However, the opportunities should soon present themselves for him to land his money shots - the big right hand and hard left hook. If he is fully committed to his attacks this time, the chin of Helenius doesn't look sturdy enough to stand up to too many of those, especially at this stage of his career, and Joshua can secure a much-needed stoppage between rounds 5-8 at 2/1.
Joshua v Helenius: Fight card
- Anthony Joshua vs. Dillian Whyte; Heavyweight
- Filip Hrgovic vs. Demsey McKean; Heavyweight
- Johnny Fisher vs. Harry Armstrong; Heavyweight
- Derek Chisora vs. Gerald Washington; Heavyweight
- Campbell Hatton vs. Tom Ansell; Super-lightweight
- George Liddard vs. Bas Oosterweghel; Middleweight
- Brandon Scott vs. Louis Norman; Featherweight
- Maiseyrose Courtney vs. Gemma Ruegg; Super-flyweight
The undercard is stacked with heavyweights and the pick of them is undoubtedly Filip Hrgovic, who looks to solidify his position at IBF mandatory challenger against Demsey McKean.
Hrgovic (15-0) seems to be a bit of a forgotten man after his unanimous decision victory over Zhilei Zhang on the Joshua-Usyk rematch undercard a year ago, with many observers believing the big man from China should have got the nod. However, it was a close fight, and the unbeaten Zhang is a real handful for anyone, just ask Joe Joyce who was stopped by him earlier this year.
Before that, Hrgovic was rapidly climbing the heavyweight ladder and had stopped 12 of his previous 14 victims in the manner you would expect for a former top amateur with an Olympic silver medal. Notably, all his knockouts came within the first four rounds, and he is fancied to get back in that groove by getting rid of McKean in the first half of the fight (13/8).
A 6/1 underdog, McKean is unbeaten in 22 (14 early) but has fought mainly in Australia and taken on nobody of note as a result. His sole venture outside of his native country was at this same arena 18 months ago and he was taken the full eight-round distance by Ariel Esteban Bracamonte, who was 11-6 at the time and has lost four of his subsequent five outings.
This is a huge step up in class for McKean and he could quickly find out why everyone was so keen on Hrgovic before the Zhang fight.
Posted at 1200 BST on 11/08/23
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