Deontay Wilder v Tyson Fury 2: Boxing betting tips and preview ahead of world heavyweight title fight

Recommended bets

2pts Tyson Fury to win by decision at 7/4

1pt Fury unanimous decision and no knockdowns at 9/2

It's been a long time coming but Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury finally get the chance to settle their differences in Las Vegas on Saturday night.

It was an argument that started almost 15 months ago and was left unresolved as the judges returned a split decision draw, denying Fury what most thought was a deserved victory and the crowning glory of what would have been one of the greatest comebacks in boxing history. Add that controversy to the fact both men are still unbeaten, have personalities to match their giant statures, and that the winner can claim to be number one in a red-hot division, and it's easy to see why this is being billed as the biggest heavyweight title clash for over 20 years.

Further spice is added by it being seen as a genuine 50-50 fight, with pundits and bookies alike struggling to split the pair, and both men generally available between 10/11 and evens across the board.

The stage is set for a memorable night and it may all come down to who can make the most adjustments from the first fight. As discussed in depth in my tactics piece earlier in the week, Fury's superior boxing skills saw him negate the notorious power of his opponent for long periods as he controlled the distance and pace of the fight with his slick footwork and excellent jab.

Constantly turning Wilder and making him hesitant with clever and relentless feints, Fury was able to get his shots off and pivot out of harm’s way time and again. Seemingly nicking many of the tight early exchanges and then dominating through the middle rounds, the Brit appeared to be well in front when Wilder finally cornered and dropped his man in the ninth round.

However, even with a heavy knockdown in the last, which is now famous for Fury's remarkable recovery, the champion hadn't done enough on most people's cards, including my own, to snatch a draw.

Both men will have taken confidence from that bout in December 2018, with Wilder buoyed by his success in the second half of the fight, and he will fancy his chances of picking up where he left off. Fury, on the other hand, knows his tactics were effective for most of the evening and will feel he can gain compensation this time by avoiding those knockdowns.

The general consensus immediately after the first dance was that Fury was unlucky and, expected to improve for what was his first serious world-level fight after a long layoff, would right the 'wrong' when fully fit in the rematch. He would have started a relatively strong favourite had the return happened straightaway, but while the decision to let the fight marinate has undoubtedly paid off in terms of how big it is now, many Fury backers seemed to have jumped ship in the interim.

So, what has changed?

They have both fought and won twice, but it is the American who scored more points with the fans. While Fury swatted aside the overmatched Tom Schwarz in less than six minutes and endured a bloody 12-round war with the untested Otto Wallin, the 'Bronze Bomber' produced highlight reel knockouts against Dominic Breazeale and Luis Ortiz.

That said, any pro-Wilder arguments based on those efforts could be countered by the fact he was wobbled badly before halting the former in a one-round tear-up, while he didn't win a round in that rematch against the tricky Cuban before ending it with the first meaningful right hand he landed in the seventh stanza.

It can also be said that the 'Gypsy King' would have had a much easier night against Wallin if it wasn't for a terrible cut suffered early on, and he also has a history of fighting to the level of his opponent. Forty-seven stitches were needed to repair that gash, which is undoubtedly a worry for anyone backing the visitor and possibly a reason for some of the market support for Wilder.

Another key factor in which way you see this fight going is the big changes in Team Fury. Out goes Ben Davison, the man behind the amazing weight loss and unlikely comeback, and in comes Javan 'SugarHill' Steward, nephew of Hall of Fame coach Emanuel Steward. This could be the change Fury needs to, as he has said, freshen things up, or perhaps losing close friend Davison may be a negative ahead of such a big fight.

Fury has moved gyms plenty in the past and it doesn't worry me too much, likewise I don't buy into all the talk from the camp that they are going to be more aggressive and go for the knockout. I don't see him changing a great deal after 30 fights, with a style that has brought him so much success, and he is the king of mind games, after all.

If he is not bluffing, then a Wilder knockout becomes great value at 5/4, but Fury is an intelligent fighter and knows going toe-to-toe with the biggest puncher of his era would be extremely dangerous, and that this approach would throw away all his own advantages in boxing ability, foot speed and reach.

That's not to say a Wilder stoppage isn't a big possibility even if Fury sticks to his same style, because he came so close to doing it last time and is clearly capable, if lessons were learnt from that frustrating night. He will need to set his attacks up better, though, and in order to do that he must find a home for his jab more often, as he never got it going first time and his powerful right usually comes off the back of that lead left.

I edge slightly with the man from the UK, who did enough, in my opinion, to get the nod in LA - and that was on the back of inadequate ring time following a long period on the sidelines. He is an active fighter now - this will be his sixth fight in 20 months - and that match sharpness can only be a good thing.

If things play out the same way at the MGM Grand, then we may not see Fury tire in the final third this time and, crucially, his feet may not slow down again. If he does get caught heavily, how he reacted last time has to be encouraging, as he bounced back from the initial knockdown to dominate the 10th round and ended the famous last round on top, after being felled by that thunderous one-two.

Another thing I like is that he has been far less accessible in the build-up to the rematch, having been far too generous with his time to the media in the past, something that can be draining. He seems to have put the pieces in place for a famous night.

It may be a nerve-racking ride if you’re looking to collect on the 7/4 available about a Fury points win, but that looks the most likely outcome in a fascinating contest. I believe the best Fury beats the best Wilder and I think we'll see the former bring his A-game this weekend.

A smaller interest is advised on the Sky Bet special of a Fury unanimous decision and no knockdowns at 9/2, which would look excellent value if we enter the final third of the fight in a similar position to last time. One way or another, Fury can take the fight the distance and it may be impossible for the judges to escape the conclusion they failed to reach the first time.

Posted at 0900 GMT on 21/02/20

When and where is the fight?

• Fight night: Saturday February 22 (Sunday morning UK time)
• TV Channel: BT Sport Box Office (£24.95)
• TV Time: Coverage starts midnight, main event approx 4am GMT (Sunday)
• Venue: MGM Grand, Las Vegas
• Title: Wilder's WBC heavyweight title and Fury's 'lineal' champion status
• Radio coverage: BBC Radio 5 Live and talkSPORT
• Weigh-in: Friday, February 21, 2230 GMT
• Sky Bet odds: Wilder 11/10, Fury 5/4, Draw 20/1 (Click to bet)

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Related boxing links

• Wilder v Fury 2: Big-fight guide
• Talking Tactics: Wilder v Fury 2
• Wilder v Fury 2: Talking points
• Sky Bet's Price Boosts and odds
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