Constitution Hill's appearance at Southwell this evening has been discussed in great detail, but will he actually win? Our experts have their say.
Constitution Hill at Southwell: How to watch
- TV coverage: ITV4 from 17:15 GMT
- Race off-time: 19:30
- Runners and riders and latest odds
John Ingles: A place might be the best he can muster
Plenty in the field look to be just making up the numbers but with the ex-Irish pair Gambino and Square Necker setting a fairly useful standard and both open to improvement, it could take a performance in the 90s to win it, so it’s not the shoo-in Constitution Hill’s connections must have been hoping for.
It helps of course that he’s getting weight from that pair, though Willie Mullins’ Daddy Long Legs is in the mix too, himself a smart hurdler who showed fairly useful form on his Flat run last year. It’s impossible to know for sure how he’ll cope, but my gut feeling is that he’ll find at least one too good.
Matt Brocklebank: Could easily win with something to spare
He's lost his way in the jumping department but I suspect Constitution Hill will be a lot more 'ready' for this Flat debut than some people have been suggesting.
Connections need to show the racing world this once superb hurdler has his mojo back and I like the fact he's got what looks a decent test on paper - rather than a three or four-runner event which would have taught us nothing - and I'm expecting him to come through with flying colours. He's getting 5lb from main market rival Square Necker, don't forget, and the general 2/1 on offer (5/2 with the odd firm) doesn't look bad business to me seeing as he's only got three or four credible rivals.
Tony McFadden: Tripoli Flyer looks far more solid
On balance, I'd rather be against Constitution Hill than with him. Yes, there won't be any hurdles to contend with at Southwell, but he was beaten a long way at Punchestown last May on the only occasion he's completed since winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in December 2024, so there have to be some doubts about how much ability and enthusiasm he retains.
Tripoli Flyer hasn't got anywhere near Constitution Hill's peak level over hurdles, but he at least arrives on the back of a useful effort in handicap company at Ascot and was a high achiever in bumpers a couple of years ago, so I'd be leaning towards him at the prices.
David Massey: Take him on with Mullins and Moore
I think it’s important to point out that connections will really want to win this race with a horse whose issue – according to those closest to him – is a lack of confidence. Others may think that a clear round is what Nicky Henderson is after and that’s why they are avoiding hurdles in his Cheltenham prep, but I don’t buy that as a racecourse gallop would be sufficient in that regard.
The other thing to consider is the possibility that Constitution Hill will be considered for a Flat campaign and this race will give an indication whether he can win Group races on the level. Again, it would be fairly pointless campaigning a Champion Hurdle winner on the Flat unless he was capable of winning a Group or Listed race at least and therefore it’s almost certain that victory is the only acceptable result tonight. If you want to back him on that basis then I’d not put you off, but I’d struggle to part with any cash on him at present.
If you want to oppose him, there are two horses to consider, with DADDY LONG LEGS perhaps the most appealing despite the fact he was outpaced on his Flat debut at Ballinrobe. He’s by a sire in Almanzor whose offspring do well at Southwell and the mile and a half trip at the Rolleston track takes plenty of getting, so I don’t see him being run off his feet this time. Patrick Mullins has said that he wasn’t travelling for the Nottinghamshire air, and there is little doubt that connections would also love to see him win.
Andrew Asquith: No bet needed to enjoy fascinating heat
It’s an interesting one. The market had Constitution Hill odds-on earlier in the week before declarations and he’s now available to back at odds as big as 2/1 with one firm, with Square Necker vying for favouritism with the majority of the layers. He is a nine-year-old attempting something he’s never done before, at least in public anyway, so I wouldn’t be a backer, but the class he showed over hurdles, especially when winning the Supreme and Champion Hurdle – comfortably breaking through the 170 barrier on Timeform’s figures – would be more than enough to win a race of this nature. I hope he wins comfortably and we get to see him back over hurdles at Cheltenham in a few weeks.
More on Constitution Hill
How do you go about pricing up the Southwell race?
Dan Barber on the comparisons between Constitution Hill and Sprinter Sacre
David Ord on the major decision facing connections
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