Andrew Asquith, John Ingles and Tony McFadden tackle the big questions ahead of this weekend's action.
How do you think Constitution Hill will fare at Southwell on Friday?
Andrew Asquith: It’s an interesting one. The market had Constitution Hill odds-on earlier in the week before declarations and he’s now available to back at odds as big as 2/1 with one firm, with Square Necker vying for favouritism with the majority of the layers. He is a nine-year-old attempting something he’s never done before, at least in public anyway, so I wouldn’t be a backer, but the class he showed over hurdles, especially when winning the Supreme and Champion Hurdle – comfortably breaking through the 170 barrier on Timeform’s figures – would be more than enough to win a race of this nature. I hope he wins comfortably and we get to see him back over hurdles at Cheltenham in a few weeks.
John Ingles: Plenty in the field look to be just making up the numbers but with the ex-Irish pair Gambino and Square Necker setting a fairly useful standard and both open to improvement, it could take a performance in the 90’s to win it, so it’s not the shoo-in Constitution Hill’s connections must have been hoping for. It helps of course that he’s getting weight from that pair, though Willie Mullins’ Daddy Long Legs is in the mix too, himself a smart hurdler who showed fairly useful form on his Flat run last year. It’s impossible to know for sure how he’ll cope, but my gut feeling is that he’ll find at least one too good.
Tony McFadden: On balance, I'd rather be against Constitution Hill than with him. Yes, there won't be any hurdles to contend with at Southwell, but he was beaten a long way at Punchestown last May on the only occasion he's completed since winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in December 2024, so there have to be some doubts about how much ability and enthusiasm he retains. Tripoli Flyer hasn't got anywhere near Constitution Hill's peak level over hurdles, but he at least arrives on the back of a useful effort in handicap company at Ascot and was a high achiever in bumpers a couple of years ago, so I'd be leaning towards him at the prices.
Who's your strongest fancy on Kempton's card on Saturday?
AA: It’s pretty boring but Precious Man stands out a mile in the Adonis (13:45). He caught my eye in a major way on his British debut when runner-up to One Horse Town at Cheltenham and didn’t really need to improve on that effort to win over this course and distance last month, his task made easier by his main rival sadly taking a fatal fall at the last. I think he’s got plenty more to offer, he’s a cracking type physically and should be competitive in the Triumph at the Cheltenham Festival, though I’d like to see him in the juvenile handicap, his current BHA mark of 135 likely to underestimate him.
JI: Anthony Honeyball’s unexposed novice Kdeux Saint Fray looks interesting off a low weight in the Ladbrokes Trophy (15:35) where he heads the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings. He ran better than his placing would suggest when a rallying fourth behind stablemate Jordans Cross in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap at Cheltenham last time after getting caught behind a weakening rival just as the race was hotting up, and the way he finished his race suggests the step up to three miles may well suit.
TM: The Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase at Cheltenham's Trials meeting often provides strong form that is worth following, and Kdeux Saint Fray shaped well when fourth in the latest edition for the reasons John has outlined. He steps up in trip in the feature Ladbrokes Trophy and brings with him an unexposed profile after only four starts over fences.
Give us a runner elsewhere who has caught your eye
AA: I really like the claims of Leovanni in the Hever Sprint Stakes (13:25) at Lingfield on Saturday and I’m surprised she’s not shorter in the betting. She is a filly who has bundles of natural speed and there’s an air of unfinished business surrounding her. Leovanni was an impressive winner of the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot as a juvenile and has only raced twice since, both times with a break in between. She seemingly isn’t the easiest to train, but it is interesting her powerful connections are persevering with her, and her run style and turn of foot will be tailormade for a sharp five furlongs around Lingfield. Diligent Harry is having his first start at the minimum trip in a year, and it wasn’t a deep race Valiant Force won last time, so I think she has a massive chance breaking from stall 2.
JI: Democracy Dilemma certainly catches the eye going over Lingfield’s five furlongs for the first time in the listed Hever Sprint Stakes (13:25). He has tons of early speed as he showed when putting up a smart effort to win a handicap at Haydock last year from a BHA mark of 99, and if he pings out as usual and dominates this small field early on, he could prove very hard to peg back on this sharp track. Clearpoint likes to go from the front too and has a good record at the track, so it’s guaranteed there’ll be no hanging about.
TM: Respond shaped well on both starts in handicap company last year, notably when fifth in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket. That competitive handicap is usually worth following but a steady pace means the form of the latest edition perhaps won't prove as robust as usual. Respond's effort can be marked up, however, as he was patiently ridden and was beaten by four rivals who had raced more prominently. He remains capable of better and is a big player on his reappearance in the mile-and-a-half handicap (15:10) at Lingfield.
Can you see the Bobbyjo Chase having a big impact on the Grand National market?
AA: My long-term Grand National fancy Grangeclare West runs in the Bobbyjo (15:15 Fairyhouse) and I'm hoping he fares better than he did in the Irish Gold Cup last time. He ran a cracker when fourth in the Savills Chase the time before, just three lengths behind stablemate Galopin des Champs, and he should be much happier back in this lesser grade, especially on these terms. Grangeclare West was only beaten three lengths at Aintree last season, and he’ll surely shorten with a win here following the release of the weights (he's set to carry 3lb more than last year). Paul Townend, who has been on board for four of his five career wins, returning to the saddle is a plus also.
JI: I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett won the last two renewals before going on to win at Aintree, and with all ten runners this year holding a Grand National entry, it’s highly likely there will be some moves in the ante-post betting afterwards. Last season’s Scottish Grand National winner Captain Cody is the shortest price for Aintree among the Bobbyjo runners at the moment at around 14/1, but if Willie Mullins is to win this again, it could be with stablemate Grangeclare West who looks the pick of the weights with Paul Townend on board for the first time in a while. He needs to bounce back from a poor run in the Irish Gold Cup last time, but this looks a much more realistic assignment for last year’s Grand National third than the Grade 1s he’s been contesting so far this season.
TM: Like Andy and John, I'd agree that Grangeclare West looks the pick of the weights on Saturday and will take the beating. Stellar Story isn't so well served by the conditions of the race - he needs to give 8 lb to most of his rivals including Grangeclare West - but I could see him proving competitive and advancing his Grand National claims. He's made no impact on either start this season but has been highly tried and should appreciate the ease in grade on Saturday.
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