Matt Brocklebank tipped 12/1 winner Soapy Stevens on Friday - check out his fancies on a busy Saturday including in the July Cup at Newmarket.
Value Bet tips: Saturday July 9
1pt win Get Ahead in 3.00 Ascot at 18/1 (General)
1pt win Cruyff Turn in 3.50 Newmarket at 33/1 (Coral)
1pt win Greatgadian in 4.05 York at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Flaming Rib in 4.25 Newmarket at 10/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Justanotherbottle in 4.40 York at 12/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Already advised
1pt win Greatgadian in John Smith’s Cup at 20/1
Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is +126.2pts in profit to advised stakes/prices in 2022
The supplemented FLAMING RIB looks fair value to finally get the better of old rival Perfect Power, which may well be enough to see Hugo Palmer’s horse land the Darley July Cup.
Saturday’s Newmarket feature is widely regarded as more of a speed test that the relatively stiff six furlongs at Ascot and, with that in mind, there does appear too much of a discrepancy in price between last month’s Commonwealth Cup one-two.
Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power came home powerfully to win by a comfortable length and a quarter in the end on the Royal heath and there’s no escaping he’s a top-class colt, but he did have connections dreaming of Guineas glory after winning over seven furlongs in the Greenham back in the spring and old foe Flaming Rib – who was last of six in the Greenham – is a dual five-furlong winner who is getting better and better with experience.
The Platinum Jubilee principles, namely Naval Crown, Creative Force and Artorius are all very much in the mix despite having to concede the weight to some smart three-year-olds, while a better run from Emaraaty Ana wouldn’t come as a shock but he’s possibly just one to watch until a little later in the campaign.
Twilight Jet has a massive question mark over him following a limp display behind Perfect Power, Commonwealth Cup fourth Cadamosto simply looked outclassed at Ascot, while fellow Irish challenger Romantic Proposal has an appealing profile but has halved in price since midweek and no longer represents.
I gave Double Or Bubble a squeak in the Platinum Jubilee and she wasn’t disgraced in seventh but her Newmarket form is all on the Rowley Mile and she surely doesn’t have the raw speed for this contest.
CRUYFF TURN sweated up badly and did too much too soon when down the field in the Royal Hunt Cup but he’s capable of much better than that and looks a huge price to hit straight back in the bet365 Bunbury Cup.
Tim Easterby’s horse is one of the main pace angles in this line-up and dropping back to seven furlongs on his first visit to Newmarket (either track) could really play to his strengths.
This horse won three times last year after seemingly bombing out on his previous outing and he was back in the groove again earlier this campaign, recording a career best when narrowly scoring over a mile at York on his penultimate start.
He ran very flat on his last try at this trip but has a good seven furlong record otherwise and he must have quick ground to be seen anywhere near his best. The odds spot of 33/1 appears to underestimate his chances.
The best punting race at Ascot is the Betfred Heritage Handicap over five furlongs and, having been waiting for GET AHEAD to go handicapping for a while now, I won’t resist a dart at Clive Cox’s filly under a light weight.
A winner over this course and distance on her debut as a juvenile, she was a massive eyecatcher on her second run of the year when ending up third after some early scrimmaging in a Listed race at Bath in mid-April and has probably improved again in two subsequent efforts – also at Listed level.
The penultimate effort, when third to Last Crusader in the Westow Stakes at York was particularly meritorious and having finished just half a length behind 99-rated runner-up Guilded (level weights) that day, she’s surely got something in hand from a mark of 93.
She’s just one of four three-year-olds in the field as the younger generation look to follow Significantly’s win aged three 12 months ago, while Cox also has previous in this particular race having won it with Tis Marvellous in 2019.
GREATGADIAN was the long-range fancy for the John Smith’s Cup Handicap at York and there’s a strong temptation to double down on Roger Varian’s runner at 14/1.
He looked to be going places when readily landing strong support at Nottingham 12 months ago before failing to kick on after a subsequent break towards the back end of last year.
However, the winter gelding operation sparked another massive upturn in form, winning twice over 10 furlongs at Chelmsford this spring including a really solid effort when running down subsequent winner Peter The Great (now rated 107), who looked to have been gifted a bit of a freebie out in front.
The drop back to a mile was always potentially going to catch him out in the Hunt Cup and quick ground on the day saw the son of Siyouni drift markedly out to 40/1 come the off. In the circumstances he ran a pretty good race, boxing on to be beaten seven lengths having been outpaced at the two-furlong marker, and he’s definitely worth another chance off his revised mark of 102.
The step back up in trip is clearly a positive move and while a drop of rain might have been preferable, the Nottingham win came on quick ground and I’m hopeful he’ll get away with it over this distance.
The next race on the Knavesmire is the John Smith’s City Walls Stakes and aside from Winter Power it looks quite open, certainly on the official ratings at least.
Tim Easterby’s filly is a couple of notches above these rivals on her best form but looks a very easy favourite to oppose on this year’s evidence, which strongly suggests she’s yet to really come to hand.
James Tate’s Royal Aclaim is totally unexposed after two novice wins from two starts in her life and she’ll be the obvious alternative for many, but I make JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE the bet.
Without question, he’s improved for the fitting of blinkers under the guidance of Kevin Ryan over the past couple of years and I’m not sure he’s ever been better than this season as a grizzled eight-year-old.
His placed efforts at Musselburgh and Newmarket represents really strong handicap form and we can safely scrap the Epsom Dash effort when rearing at the start. He got straight back on track with a six-furlong win at one of his favourite haunts – Ripon – last month and he’s seemingly just as effective over the minimum trip, indeed it looked like the stiff six caught him out when fourth to Blackrod on the Rowley Mile back in April.
The fast five at York on good to firm going is going to test his old legs but he’s is cracking form still and, when breaking on terms, is a very uncomplicated ride in that he’ll probably lead or be very close to the pace. Strong-travelling prominent racers can be hard to deal with at York and the double-figure price with Hills and Sky Bet who offer four places looks a great move.
Published at 1630 BST on 08/07/22
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