After a profitable second round, Ben Coley looks ahead to Saturday's third-round three-balls in the Farmers Insurance Open.
Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open three-balls
2pts Rose and Nakajima to win their three-balls at 4.92/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
I wonder: how often, if ever, have the halfway leaders on the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour both been odds-on? It can't have happened many times in the past but that's the situation we face at the time of writing, albeit with Calum Hill soon to tee off in Bahrain where things may change.
Over at the Farmers Insurance Open, everyone's favourite veteran, Justin Rose, is threatening to do what he did in 2019 and dominate the tournament. Rose is four clear of Seamus Power, six clear of the two others and seven clear of Si Woo Kim, the only other player in the top five who has produced elite form recently. It's a golden opportunity for Rose and one he will probably take.
Followers of my outright preview have Maverick McNealy in a share of sixth and, Kim and Power aside, he's about as likely as anyone should Rose falter. I just don't really expect him to, although it should be said that Torrey Pines showed signs of firming up during round two. This isn't a bad thing for Rose as such, but I'd say pursuers are best hoping for the sort of conditions that make big numbers possible.
We'll start by keeping things nice and simple: Rose, at 5/4, looks excellent value for a three-ball with Power and Joel Dahmen. The latter shot nine-under at the North Course to vault into contention but is a short hitter who will be more vulnerable at the South and is always prone to putting shockers anyway.
Power's putter was behind an opening 65 at the South and he soon rolled in another 15-footer for birdie early on at the North. It's been frustrating to watch as he was among my selections at 175/1 last week, but there's a good reason he was even bigger this week: his Farmers record reads MC-MC-MC-MC-MC.
Clearly that's going to improve now he's made the weekend but I'm very happy taking him on with Rose, who at 5/4 looks a big price. I think we're getting a little extra for the fact he's got to deal with leading, but this is a major-winning former world number one we're talking about. He looks primed to extend his advantage over those closest to him.
Earlier on, I like the look of KEITA NAKAJIMA over Sam Ryder and Cam Davis.
Ryder has contended for this before but he needed a red-hot putting round at the South on Thursday. He couldn't back that up at the easier North Course, where he hit just four fairways, and this weak driver is going to struggle if he's similarly poor off the tee as things get tougher.
Davis has historically struggled on the South and while that wasn't the case in round one, he too relied on his short-game and then struggled at the North. To me that suggests the same issues which have plagued his long-game remain and at a course he's historically hated, they should catch up with him today.
Nakajima shot 71 on his debut at the South Course on Friday and while the worst of this trio so far, it's solid evidence that the course suits his game. It ought to, with tough conditions best so far in his young career, and while Ryder and Davis are hacking out of rough, he should spend plenty of time playing from the fairway.
It was tempting to side with Patrick Rodgers again as he's still with SH Kim and proved too strong at the South on Friday. However, whereas that three-ball was completed by Camilo Villegas, now it's Matti Schmid, and that upgrade isn't reflected in the revised prices.
Rasmus Hojgaard has a big power advantage over Denny McCarthy and Chad Ramey, neither of whom are ideal fits for this course, but Hojgaard still has to prove that he can handle it and the risk isn't worth the reward at about 11/8.
Likewise, Zecheng Dou makes some appeal but we have to respect the fact that Matthieu Pavon is a past champion here and I can't trust Wyndham Clark to beat a solid operator like Tom Hoge, so at close to 5/1 a double on Rose and Nakajima rates the sole bet today.
Posted at 08:05 GMT on 31/01/26
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