Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at La Quinta.
Golf betting tips: The American Express
3pts win Scottie Scheffler at 11/10 (General)
1pt Wyndham Clark and Scheffler to win their 3-balls at 3.25/1 (bet365)
Both punters and his fellow competitors were justified in thinking that Scottie Scheffler was there to be beaten at this week’s American Express in California. Surely he needed a run after a lengthy break. Pencil him in for top five maybe and almost certainly top 10 but a few with hotter putters who had played at last week’s Sony Open would pick him off.
So far, Scheffler has done everything absolutely right. He cashed in at the two easy courses on the rotation with a 9-under 63 at La Quinta and an 8-under 64 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course. And when the test got harder he threw in a strong 4-under 68 at The Stadium Course, the venue where later today he will try and secure his seventh win in 13 PGA Tour starts since last year’s Byron Nelson.
And yet, for all that, Scheffler doesn’t have the lead. Top spot belongs to Si Woo Kim on 22-under (63 Nicklaus, 65 Stadium, 66 La Quinta). Scheffler shares second place with teenage star Blades Brown, who has played the same rotation as the World No.1. Brown shot a remarkable 60 at the Nicklaus, missing a seven-foot putt at the last for the magic 59.
Aside from Kim, it’s a very US-dominant leaderboard and just two off the pace are the pair of Wyndham Clark and Eric Cole. A further stroke in arrears it’s the trio of Tom Hoge, Matt McCarty and Andrew Putnam. Do we keep looking further back?
For an event where super-low scores are possible, it would be natural to think that crazy come-from-behind victories at La Quinta are very much on the cards. Perhaps that idea is fuelled by David Duval winning this event with a Sunday 59 in 1999 although even then the 2001 Open champ didn’t appear from nowhere: he was in sixth place and six off the lead entering that final lap.
In the last six editions of this event, a 54-hole leader has prevailed in five of them. Over the last decade, no-one has come from further back than fifth spot. On those numbers, Kim is in the box seat while Scheffler, Brown, Cole and Clark have a statistical leg up on everyone else.
The betting has it spot on in my view with Scheffler a shade of odds-against at 11/10, with Kim 9/4, Brown and Clark around 10/1 and Cole 18s. It’s tempting to play some fancier odds but I’m going to keep it simple and back SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER at 11/10. Tiger Woods, in his pomp, started his season with wins in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008 and Scheffler can do the same here. Rust is a foreign concept to the true greats.
In classic fashion, Scheffler simplified his third-round 68: “Yeah, I think I did pretty good. I got to have a bit of a slow start. But I made a nice birdie there on 7. I hit two really good shots into 8. I struck the ball pretty nicely for the rest of the round. So I was pretty pleased with how I was playing. Outside of a couple bogeys, clean that up heading into tomorrow.”
Yep, clean it up and win. No stress. That’s the Scottie way. The Stadium Course dried out further on Saturday and the firmer conditions will only play more into Scheffler’s hands. It was likely only a coldish putter would stop him here but so far he’s 13th for SG: Putting and 8th in Feet of Putts Made. He was 7th and 5th in those two categories at the Stadium Course yesterday.
The players are out in three-balls on Sunday (Scheffler, Brown and Kim go off last at 6.35pm UK) and I’ll have a punt in that market too. The one I like is WYNDHAM CLARK at 6/4 to beat Hoge and Cole and I’ll double it with Scheffler to win his three-ball to get a price of 3.25/1.
Clark said he’d worked hard in the off-season after an unacceptable 2025 and he’s getting some instant reward here. The 2023 US Open champion was 10th for R4 scoring in 2024 while Cole and Hoge are rather iffy Sunday performers. Clark has never carded worse than 2-under 70 in his five closing rounds in this event and shot 64 at The Stadium Course on Friday, beating Cole’s 66 and Hoge’s 68 on the same day.
Posted at 09:35 GMT on 25/01/26
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