Football betting tips: World Cup
2pts Under 2.5 goals at evens (General)
1.5pts Marc Cucurella 2+ fouls at 13/8 (bet365)
0.5pt Marc Cucurella 3+ fouls at 5/1 (bet365)
I wasn’t hot on Belgium's chances at the World Cup heading into the tournament and, after two draws with Egypt and Iran in their opening two matches, I felt vindicated.
Their 5-1 win over minnows New Zealand saw them scrape through as Group G winners, earning them a round of 32 clash with Senegal.
Ismaila Sarr hit the woodwork twice before Habib Diarra opened the scoring and Senegal were two goals up before the hour mark. They should have really put the game to bed, winning the expected goals (xG) battle 3.58-1.74.
But credit where credit is due, Rudi Garcia rolled the dice with a couple of massive substitutions. Off came Jeremy Doku and Kevin De Bruyne with over half an hour to play.
It looked like it was going to blow up spectacularly. Youri Tielemans and Leandro Trossard almost clashed during the hydration break and Belgium remained two goals down with 85 minutes on the clock.
The lifeline came from Romelu Lukaku in the 86th minute and then moments later a mistake from Mory Diaw allowed Tielemans to nod in Trossard’s cross.
And as the contest was meandering towards penalties, Belgium won a spot kick in the final seconds of extra-time which Tielemans converted.
Next up was co-hosts USA and Garcia made another couple of big calls. De Bruyne and Doku dropped, Dodi Lukebakio on the right, Tielemans more advanced and Nicolas Raskin screening the back four.
It worked like a charm with winning Belgium 4-1 - albeit with a couple of mistakes to thank for their last two goals.
The only blemish was Amadou Onana’s tournament-ending injury in the first-half. He’ll be a huge miss against this possession-heavy Spain side.
La Roja have averaged 65.6% of the ball (2nd), they are yet to concede a goal this summer and their expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.5 suggests their defensive numbers are no fluke.
Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams came into the tournament with knocks but ominously for Belgium both are expected to be fit here.
All things considered, Spain’s general price of 8/13 to win in 90 minutes is probably fair but the even money about UNDER 2.5 GOALS is worth a poke.
It’s clicked in three of La Roja’s World Cup games, including their round of 16 match with Portugal where Luis de la Fuente’s side needed an injury time winner.
No doubt they’ll beat Belgium into submission with their tika-taka style but the Red Devils have enough quality and experience to make this tight. Plus, as Garcia has shown in the last two games, he has the tactical nous to make this difficult for the Spaniards.
It’ll be fascinating to see who Garcia goes with on the flanks.
Trossard has started every game, Doku has the 'X Factor' but Lukebakio staked his claim with some impressive cameos.
Regardless of who it is, I’d be looking towards the Spanish full-backs in the FOULS market.
Lukebakio has completed eight dribbles and drawn one foul in his last two appearances. Doku’s averaged two dribbles and drawn 3.3 fouls a game and Trossard’s averaged the same amount of dribbles and drawn 1.4 fouls a game.
Against the Red Devils this summer, opposition left-backs have averaged 1.2 fouls and three tackles per match, while right-backs have averaged 0.8 fouls and 3.2 tackles.
So at 13/8 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS and 5/1 TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS, MARC CUCURELLA’s respective prices appeal here.
The first bet has landed in two of Cucurella's five appearances at the tournament alongside three of his five games in qualification, with the higher line clicking once.
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (08/07/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
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