Football betting tips: World Cup
1pt Pedri 1+ assist at 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Marko Arnautovic to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
Spain arrived at the 2026 World Cup as 9/2 joint favourites but a combination of the quality of their rivals and the knockout draw has seen them drift to 17/2, behind France and Argentina in the betting.
Luis de la Fuente’s side's route to the final looks a lot harder than those two nations.
Based on the pricing - if Spain win on Thursday - they’ll most likely play Portugal in the round of 16, Belgium in the quarters and France in the semis.
Les Bleus have comparatively easier clashes with Paraguay then Canada/Morocco to navigate.
And on the other side, Argentina play Cape Verde, Australia/Egypt, most likely Colombia in the quarters, then probably England (ambitious I know) or Brazil in the semis.
That explains Spain’s drift in the outright market because their performances have been good for the most part.
After the underwhelming stalemate with surprise package Cape Verde, they’ve won their next two games and are yet to concede a goal this summer, shipping the lowest expected goals tally of any nation (0.5).
They haven’t lost in 34 matches either which explains why they are generally 1/3 to win in 90 minutes and 1/8 to qualify against Austria.
As was the case in their curtain raiser, the only question over La Roja’s possession-based style is their ability to unpick stubborn low blocks, but it’s not one expected to be asked by Ralf Rangnick’s side - AKA the Godfather of Gegenpressing.
La Roja are generally 1/2 to score 2+ goals and with no talismanic goalscorer in their squad, backing PEDRI to break his duck and get 1+ ASSIST appeals as an alternative to the anytime goalscorer market.
Austria haven’t kept a clean sheet yet (conceding five) and Rangnick isn’t the type of manager to compromise on his approach which should see Spain create plenty of chances.
Pedri has completed six key passes (pass leading to a shot), tied with Lionel Messi and Jude Bellingham.
Spain’s playmaker has the seventh highest expected assists (xA) at the tournament (1.4) and ranks third for xA per 90 (0.58) but is yet to provide an actual assist.
For context, Michael Olise has five assists from 2.2 xA (1st in both metrics), Bruno Guimaraes has four from 1.0 xA, Florian Wirtz has three from 1.7 xA, Martin Odegaard has three from 0.9 xA and Patrick Berg has two from 1.4 xA.
So, it looks like Pedri’s compatriots' wasteful finishing is at fault for his lack of goal contributions.
Although this tournament hasn’t been rife for cards, the 11/2 available for MARKO ARNAUTOVIC TO BE CARDED looks big.
He should lead the line for Austria and with De la Fuente’s side topping the charts for average possession (69.4%), the former Stoke frontman will be expected to do his fair share of defensive work.
Arnautovic was carded in his nation's last outing meaning he has picked up three bookings in his last 10 appearances at major tournaments, that’s 0.44 cards per 90 albeit across a very small sample size.
Still based on his domestic cards per 90 average of 0.18, the price available is a point too big.
And then you have to consider the player's petulant character, he could lash out in frustration if the Spaniards are at their tiki-taka best.
Odds correct 14:15 BST (01/07/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
Outright previews
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.