Football betting tips: World Cup
1pt Lucas Digne 1+ shots on target from outside the box at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Rodri 1+ shots on target from outside the box at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Rodri to score from outside the box at 33/1 (Betfred)
0.5pts Digne to score from outside the box at 66/1 (Betfred)
A meeting of the European champions and a side considered by many to be the best at the tournament. France boast star power throughout, particularly in the attacking areas, yet we can't let this blind our judgement of Spain's quality either.
They've looked like the team most in control of their contests over the last month or so. Belgium's strike to level things up in their quarter-final tie the first Spain have conceded during their time in North America - that also one of their only chances of the game.
The underlying data highlights just how superior this Spanish defence has been. They rank clear first for lowest expected goals against (xGA) which is certainly impressive when we consider they've played double the amount of games as their closest competitors.
If there's any side which can unlock Spain's defence, it's France. If there's any side which can stifle France's attack, it's Spain.
Argentina may have netted a goal more but France clearly top the charts for the quality of the chances they've created. There's the potential for a repeat of the 5-4 Nations League thriller of 2025 (a game where Spain went 5-1 up); there's the potential for a cagey 0-0.
I'm steering clear of a definitive prediction on the contest but I was on Spain pre-tournament knowing that a France semi-final was on their path. I'm sticking with my belief that they can reach another final.
Whichever way the game plays out, I'm siding with two angles which should remain relevant. RODRI and LUCAS DIGNE catch my eye from a price perspective for action from OUTSIDE THE BOX.
Should the game play out in a defence-first manner, shots from distance may feature more regularly with no clear way through. Should it be end-to-end, you're still getting the attacking potential of both sides.
It's worth pointing out at this stage before we discuss the players that the only side to have had more shots from outside the area at the tournament than Spain (43) are France (48).
On a per match average, France are seeing 8.0 shots from outside the box with Spain on 7.17. They may be two talented teams but they don't fall into the trap of trying to walk the ball into the net.
Rodri's taken six shots at this tournament and while none have been on target, four of those have been from outside the area. It wasn't just the group stage either with efforts coming in recent contests.
It's just a characteristic of his game. While he is controlled in possession he's shown a more than capable ability of trying his luck. Half of his Premier League shots last season came from outside the box.
For Digne, he's not seen as many efforts at this tournament but both of his shots have come from near enough the same position on the pitch.
One of those struck the crossbar after being tipped onto it by Morocco keeper Bono while the other was denied by the Sweden stopper. Considering Lamine Yamal may not track back to help defensively, France could take a gamble on pushing Digne forward at times to try and catch them out.
You won't get super sub on these picks if your bookmaker offers it but they should be good for extra time if that's a promotion available. There's every chance these two play 120 minutes each if required.
Strong arguments can be made for both of these sides to progress to the final. I'm leaning towards Spain, although the better value can be found with these player angles.
Odds correct at 15:45 BST (13/07/26)
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